杰瑞股份 20251125 摘要 杰瑞股份油气业务占比约 50%，受全球石油公司资本开支影响，预计未 来资本开支增加将带动油服装备需求增长，老旧油气田开发推动增压设 备需求。 天然气业务收入占比约 25%，但订单占比接近 50%，北美和中东大型 项目及液化天然气发展提供增长预期，天然气被视为公司主业外增速最 快板块。 燃气轮机业务收入占比低但潜力大，北美缺电及产业链扩产推动需求， 杰瑞作为 OEM 制造商，与西门子、GE 贝克休斯等合作关系良好，预期 业务高速增长。 全球油气资本开支虽提升但低于 2012-2014 年高峰，产能持续回落， 装备和服务价格上涨，推动行业 ROE 提升，杰瑞凭借产品优势有望保持 良好财务表现。 油气勘探开发支出自 2020 年后增长，但勘探难度增加，每发现 1 亿吨 油气对应的勘探支出大幅飙升，老旧油田增产服务需求空间广阔。 国内油服公司在国际市场表现出色，以杰瑞股份为代表，来自中东的天 然气订单快速增长，受益于海外国际油服龙头公司的订单溢出效应。 预计杰瑞股份 2025-2027 年净利润分别为 29.6 亿元、38.2 亿元和 46.1 亿元，维持"推荐"评级，预计明年燃气轮 ...

①液冷/风冷+燃气轮机+柴油发动机，这家公司深度绑定外资巨头切入AIDC多个细分领域，墨西哥新建 工厂计划于2026年初投产；②公司抓紧产业链国产转移的契机，积极布局高壁垒门槛设备及零部件，重 要项目达产后年产值超15亿。（1家主板公司、1家创业板公司） 前言 ...

卫星互联网或迎商业化爆发期 20251124 摘要 基于这些发展，我们建议关注太空资产建设及配套企业，如航天电子等核心企 业，它们将在这一产业化加速过程中发挥重要作用。 3. 卫星产能提升：近年来，我国筹建并在建多项小卫星生产工厂，总年产 能已超过 3,000 颗。例如，海南卫星超级工厂规划产能达到千颗级别， 其地理位置紧邻海南商业发射场，有望实现生产、测试、运输一体化， 大幅降低仓储物流成本，提高效率。 4. 新一代长征运载火箭投入使用：如长征 5 号、6 号、8 号、12 号等新一 代低成本运载火箭陆续投入建设，为未来两到三年的低轨密集发射提供 保障。此外，可回收火箭方面，无论是国家队还是民营企业，如蓝箭航 天和天兵科技，都计划在今年完成首枚可回收运载火箭飞行试验，这将 使我国成为全球第三个成功回收运载火箭的国家。 5. 商业航天发射场建设：我国正在多个地点建设相应的商业航天发射工位， 包括海南商业航天发射场、酒泉东风卫星创业示范中心及山东海洋等地。 预计明年将有更多工位投入使用，总数接近 7~8 个，每个工位年保障能 力达 10~16 次，总体快速响应保障能力可达百枚以上。这为大规模低 轨巨型星座建设提 ...

Group 1 - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing positive changes both domestically and internationally, with a focus on high-quality segments and upcoming Gen3 product releases and mass production guidance [1] - The solid-state battery equipment sector is advancing, with the first domestic large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line having been established and entering trial production, accelerating the industrialization process [1] - The engineering machinery sector is maintaining high growth rates in exports despite a slowdown in excavator domestic sales, while non-excavator sales remain strong, indicating overall good domestic operations [1] Group 2 - The rapid development of AI technology is significantly impacting the passive components industry, driving growth in high-end MLCCs, chip inductors, tantalum capacitors, and packaging materials, while also benefiting upstream raw materials such as nickel powder and carbonyl iron powder [2] - The performance of materials is crucial for device performance, providing advantages to upstream raw materials and supporting enterprises in the upstream and downstream industries [2] Group 3 - The global gas turbine market is expected to see a 95% year-on-year increase in new orders by Q3 2025, reaching 24GW, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and increased AI power demand [3] - The high demand for gas turbines globally is likely to create export opportunities for domestic manufacturers of hot-end blades and cold-end casings [3]

华泰证券研报表示，根据McCoy统计，2025年三季度全球燃气轮机新增订单同增95%至24GW。海外大 选后能源政策右转、中东油转气、AI电源需求多因素推动全球燃气轮机景气度继续上行。看好海外燃 气轮机主机的量价齐升。此外，全球燃机高景气有望带动国内热端叶片、冷端缸体等部件企业出口机 遇。 ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 3Q25 全球气电回顾与展望：景气度持 续外溢，零部件与整机出海双击 华泰研究 3Q25 全球燃机订单同增 95%，单季度需求再创历史新高 根据 McCoy 统计，3Q25 全球燃气轮机新增订单同增 95%至 24GW。海外 大选后能源政策右转、中东油转气、AI 电源需求多因素推动全球燃气轮机 景气度继续上行。我们看好海外燃气轮机主机的量价齐升，继续推荐西门子 能源 ENR、哈尔滨电气、东方电气。相关公司包括上海电气。此外，全球 燃机高景气有望带动国内热端叶片、冷端缸体等部件企业出口机遇。相关公 司包括应流股份、豪迈科技、鹰普精密。 3Q25 回顾：美国需求维持半壁江山，轻燃接单阶段性放缓 分区域来看：北美市场持续贡献 50%+的新接订单。根据 McCoy，3Q25 在>10MW 燃机市场中，北美市场新接订单 12.7GW，环比+14%，占到全 部新接订单的~53%。 分企业来看：亚洲市场回暖带动 MHI 市占率修复。我们估算 3Q25 在>10MW 燃机市场中，GEV、MHI、ENR 按功率的市占率分别为 31%、30%、21%， 得益于亚洲市场回暖（根据 MHI 季报数据披 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/11/17-2025/11/21）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 4.78%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 13；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 3.77%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 25.58%，在申万 3 1 个一级行业分类中排名第 6；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 13.18%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 西门子能源上调燃机扩产目标，持续看好燃机涡轮叶片龙头应流股份。11 月 20 日，西门子能源在 Capital Mar ket Day 表示，24 财年燃机产能 17GW，预计 25-27 年提升至 22GW，28-30 年超过 30GW。西门子能源本次给出 28 年之后的扩产目标，我们认为此举一方面反映了燃机需求端超预期，另一方面，主机厂的扩产目标的完成需要 依靠涡轮叶片等上游核心零部件环节的扩产。应流股份是国内涡轮叶片龙头，2025 年 7 月，西门子能源高层访 问应流集团并表示：未来希望应流在西门子主力机型上承担更多责任 ...

Core Insights - The frequent power outages in Seattle highlight a significant issue in the U.S. energy infrastructure, exacerbated by the rising demand for electricity driven by AI technologies [1][2] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella acknowledged that the company has a surplus of GPUs that remain unused due to power shortages, indicating a broader challenge faced by tech companies [1][2] - The increasing energy consumption of AI models, such as OpenAI's "Orion," is straining the existing power grid, which is already aging and underfunded [1][2][3] Power Shortage Dilemma - The U.S. power grid is rated C+ by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), with 70% of transformers exceeding their 25-year design life, leading to insufficient backup capacity [2][3] - AI data centers exhibit "pulse-like" power demands during model training, causing voltage fluctuations that the current grid is ill-equipped to handle [2][3] - The average outage duration for U.S. users is projected to reach 662.6 minutes in 2024, an increase of 80.74% year-over-year, with states like Virginia and Texas experiencing even longer outages [3] Paths to Resolution - The global demand for data center electricity is expected to reach 945 terawatt-hours by 2030, more than doubling from 2024 levels [3][6] - Major tech companies are exploring various solutions, including gas turbines, energy storage systems, nuclear power, and relocating computing power overseas to mitigate the energy crisis [6][7][9] - The U.S. faces significant delays in upgrading its power infrastructure due to regulatory hurdles, with transmission projects often taking years to complete [6][7] Investment Opportunities - UBS predicts that by 2030, annual investments in power generation, storage, grid upgrades, and data centers will reach $3 trillion, indicating a shift in focus towards energy as a strategic resource [23][24] - The demand for gas turbines and energy storage solutions is expected to rise sharply, with companies like General Electric and Siemens reporting increased orders [9][10][11] - The energy landscape is evolving, with power becoming a critical driver of future industries, akin to oil in the past [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the global commercial air conditioning compressor casting market and is strategically entering the AIDC cooling and power supply sectors, leveraging long-term partnerships with major global clients [1][4]. Group 1: Business Overview - The company has a strong foothold in the commercial air conditioning compressor casting and engineering machinery casting sectors, with over 10 years of collaboration with top clients like Johnson Controls, Ingersoll Rand, and Caterpillar [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% in revenue and 13.3% in net profit attributable to shareholders from 2016 to 2024, indicating a robust growth trend [1]. Group 2: AIDC Market Potential - The AIDC sector is experiencing significant investment from global tech giants, with the cooling segment projected to exceed 10 billion USD in the U.S. by 2028 [2]. - The power supply segment is also expanding due to aging electrical infrastructure in the U.S., with gas turbines and diesel generators likely becoming mainstream solutions [2]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company's integrated "casting + machining" capabilities provide a competitive edge, allowing for high product value and superior profitability compared to peers [3]. - The dual-core production layout in Deqing and Mexico positions the company to capture domestic and international orders while ensuring supply chain security for North American clients [3]. Group 4: Future Growth and Valuation - The company is expected to see net profits of 220 million, 300 million, and 410 million CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 38, 28, and 20 times [3]. - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan to align the interests of key personnel, further strengthening its operational capabilities [3].

2025.11. 20 本文字数：1575，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郭霁莹 全球燃气轮机市场正迎来历史性爆发。GE Vernova（通用电气能源业务板块）、西门子能源、三菱重工等全球巨头均呈订单加速、产能紧张态势。 2025财年，西门子能源未交付订单量再创新高，达1380亿欧元，公司上半年燃气轮机新订单中约六成来自数据中心；GE Vernova去年新增燃气轮机订 单20.2GW，同比增长112.6%，公司当前积压订单已排至2028年；三菱重工则计划在未来两年内将燃机产能提高一倍。 需求爆发源于北美地区电力供需矛盾持续激化，其中AI（人工智能）数据中心快速扩张是催化剂。美国能源部数据显示，2023年美国数据中心耗电 176TWh，占总电力需求4.4%；预计到2028年耗电量将增至325TWh-580TWh，占美国电力需求比重升至6.7%-12%。产业端动作进一步印证了这一趋 势，据彭博一致性预期，北美头部四家云厂商今年总资本开支（含融资租赁）将达3620亿美元，同比增长58.5%，2026年仍将保持约30%的高增速。 供给端，北美电力电网老化严重，大批老旧煤电、气电项目退役，而传统气电项目建设周 ...