产需降温
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年初产需降温——1月PMI数据解读【陈兴团队·华福宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2026-01-31 10:27
Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in January recorded a decline to 49.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and below the median level of the past five years [4][3] - Key sub-indices such as new orders, production, raw material inventory, and employment all showed a decrease, indicating a cooling in both supply and demand [4][2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the production index decreased to 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points [6][4] Group 2 - The price index has risen significantly due to recent increases in commodity prices, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1%, down 3.0 percentage points, and the factory price index at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points [8][3] - The construction industry has seen a notable decline, with the new orders index dropping significantly, leading to a business activity index of 48.8%, the lowest since April 2020 [9][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, with the service sector also experiencing a slight decline, indicating overall weak economic conditions [9][12]