宏 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 4 周） 部分工业品生产恢复 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，春节假期结束后，本周部分工业品生产恢复，工业品价 格指数也有提升。年初以来新房销售温和恢复，二手房挂牌价逐步止跌； 同时，外贸港口吞吐量及韩国出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需韧性增强。 1. 工业：部分工业品春节后生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、 浮法玻璃开工率、部分化工品开工率，以及主要钢材品种表观需求环比提 升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率环比回落。2）中下游方面，本 周纺织聚酯开工率环比提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工 率、全钢胎开工率环比反弹。 2. 地产：新房销售温和修复。1）销售方面，年初以来（截至 2 月 27 日）， 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-24.6%，较去年 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 2 月经济：价格篇 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2 月生意社 BPI 指数先抑后扬，月初受风险偏好回摆影响，有色金属价格延续下行；假期美伊地缘事件发酵， 叠加关税裁决引发美元走弱预期，以原油为主的外盘商品重回升势。截至 2 月 27 日，生意社 BPI 指数录得 947 点，相较 1 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall decreased slightly this month, indicating a mixed trend in various product categories with some experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1][13]. Price Index Summary - The total price index for Linyi Mall is 102.12 points, down 0.06 points month-on-month, a decrease of 0.06%, and down 1.72 points year-on-year, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - Among 14 categories, 6 experienced price increases, 2 remained stable, and 6 saw price declines [3]. Category-Specific Price Changes Building and Decoration Materials - The price index for building and decoration materials rose to 107.90 points, an increase of 1.41 points month-on-month [5]. - The increase was driven primarily by the rise in prices of decorative materials, which increased by 1.50 points, while structural materials saw a slight decline [6]. Hardware and Electrical Materials - The price index for hardware and electrical materials reached 119.99 points, up 0.20 points month-on-month [9]. - The increase was influenced by a significant rise in copper prices, which raised production costs for electrical cables, leading to higher selling prices [9]. Educational and Office Supplies - The price index for educational and office supplies fell to 106.60 points, down 2.02 points month-on-month [10]. - The decline was mainly due to a significant drop in the prices of sports and entertainment products, which decreased by 5.09 points [10]. Steel Products - The price index for steel products decreased to 95.29 points, down 0.39 points month-on-month [12]. - The decline was attributed to weak demand in the real estate market, leading to reduced end-user demand and a cautious outlook among market participants [12].

价格方面，2025年国内总购买价格指数上涨2.6%，高于2024年的2.4%。个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数 全年上涨2.6%，与2024年持平。剔除食品和能源价格后的核心PCE价格指数上涨2.8%，略低于2024年的 2.9%。 初步估算数据显示，2025年第四季度（10月至12月）美国GDP按年率计算增长1.4%。相比于第三季度 的4.4%，第四季度经济增速明显放缓。报告指出，第四季度GDP增长主要受消费者支出和投资增加推 动，但政府支出和出口下降对增长形成部分抵消。 2025年美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长2.2%，低于2024年的2.8%。 当地时间2月20日，美国经济分析局报告显示，2025年美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长2.2%， 低于2024年的2.8%。 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in January recorded a decline to 49.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and below the median level of the past five years [4][3] - Key sub-indices such as new orders, production, raw material inventory, and employment all showed a decrease, indicating a cooling in both supply and demand [4][2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the production index decreased to 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points [6][4] Group 2 - The price index has risen significantly due to recent increases in commodity prices, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1%, down 3.0 percentage points, and the factory price index at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points [8][3] - The construction industry has seen a notable decline, with the new orders index dropping significantly, leading to a business activity index of 48.8%, the lowest since April 2020 [9][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, with the service sector also experiencing a slight decline, indicating overall weak economic conditions [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China is experiencing fluctuations, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic activity, while the prices of raw materials and finished goods are showing signs of recovery, with the producer price index rising above the critical point for the first time in 20 months [1][3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting seasonal slowdowns and insufficient market demand [3]. - Among 13 sub-indices, inventory, import, purchase price, and producer price indices increased, while production, new orders, and other indices saw declines [3]. - The purchase price index rose to 56.1%, marking a 3 percentage point increase, while the producer price index reached 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion after 19 months below 50% [4]. New Growth Momentum - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52.0%, indicating ongoing positive trends, while equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, also in the expansion zone [6]. - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, suggesting optimistic expectations among enterprises [7]. Financial Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a slowdown in the construction sector [10]. - The financial sector showed significant improvement, with the business activity index exceeding 65%, indicating strong support for the real economy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of the December 2025 automotive market, highlighting price changes and discount trends across different vehicle segments, indicating a general upward trend in market prices and discounts. Overall Market Price Changes - The overall market price change index for December is 4.84, with an average transaction price of 166,200 yuan, reflecting an increase of 8,277 yuan or 5.24% month-on-month [4] - All market segments experienced price increases, with the sedan market showing the largest growth at 8.05% [4] Sedan Market Analysis - The sedan market price change index is -0.76, with an average transaction price of 132,500 yuan [3] - The overall transaction price for sedans increased by 9,872 yuan, or 8.05% month-on-month [5] - The A00 segment saw the largest price increase at 8.65%, while the B and C segments experienced declines of 1.52% and 2.29% respectively [5] SUV Market Analysis - The SUV market price change index is 8.13, with an average transaction price of 186,100 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2,574 yuan or 1.4% [10] - The B segment within SUVs showed significant price growth, while the A0 segment experienced a decline of 1.43% [10] MPV Market Analysis - The MPV market price change index is -1.79, with an average transaction price of 269,100 yuan, which increased by 8,805 yuan or 3.38% month-on-month [10] - The market saw a notable increase in sales share for models priced above 200,000 yuan [10] Overall Market Discount Changes - The overall market discount change index for December is 0.45, with an average discount of 28,500 yuan, which increased by 2,775 yuan or 10.8% month-on-month [4] - Discounts increased across all segments, with the MPV market showing the largest growth at 21.7% [4] New Energy Market Overview - The overall new energy market price change index is 7.68, with an average transaction price of 175,500 yuan, reflecting an increase of 13,863 yuan or 8.58% month-on-month [10] - The new energy sedan market saw a price increase of 11,325 yuan, or 10.58%, with the A00 segment experiencing a significant rise of 8.7% [12] New Energy Market Discounts - The overall new energy market discount change index is 0.81, with an average discount of 11,300 yuan, which increased by 1,531 yuan or 15.74% month-on-month [12] - Discounts in the MPV segment increased significantly by 35.4% [12]

Core Insights - The overall price index for Linyi Mall increased to 102.37 points this week, reflecting a slight week-on-week rise of 0.03 points, but a year-on-year decline of 1.46 points [1] Price Index Summary - In the 14 categories of goods, 5 categories saw price increases, 3 remained stable, and 6 experienced declines. The top three categories with price increases were construction and decoration materials, steel, and hardware and electrical materials [3] Construction and Decoration Materials - The price index for construction and decoration materials reached 107.82 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.33 points. The largest contributor to this increase was the rise in decorative materials, while structural installation materials and specialized materials saw slight increases. However, overall market transactions remained sluggish, with no significant growth in sales volume [5] Steel - The steel price index rose to 95.31 points, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.06 points. Most subcategories saw price increases, particularly pipes, construction steel, and profiles, while plate prices experienced a slight decline. The steel market is currently in a demand lull, with insufficient construction project starts leading to a noticeable decrease in downstream demand [8] Hardware and Electrical Materials - The price index for hardware and electrical materials increased to 119.97 points, with a week-on-week rise of 0.07 points. This increase was primarily driven by higher prices for wires and cables, as well as instruments and meters. Rising copper prices have pushed up costs, leading to continued price adjustments for wires, while demand remains sensitive to price changes [11] Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment - The price index for home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell to 102.78 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.25 points. The largest declines were seen in kitchen appliances, purification equipment, and water heaters, with overall weak demand leading to lower sales volumes [14] Grain, Oil, and Food - The price index for grain, oil, and food decreased to 95.27 points, with a week-on-week decline of 0.01 points. The performance varied across subcategories, with spices and tea experiencing price drops, while dried fruits saw price increases. The approaching year-end has led to increased wholesale purchasing of spices and tea, despite lower wholesale prices [17] Daily Necessities - The price index for daily necessities fell to 102.67 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 points. Prices for bags, toys, textiles, jewelry, and home goods all declined, continuing the downward trend in a sluggish market [20] Summary Table - The overall price index increased from 102.34 to 102.37 points, a change of 0.03 points. Specific category changes include: - Construction and Decoration Materials: 107.49 to 107.82 points, +0.33 - Steel: 95.25 to 95.31 points, +0.06 - Hardware and Electrical Materials: 119.90 to 119.97 points, +0.07 - Home Appliances: 88.52 to 88.52 points, 0 - Grain, Oil, and Food: 95.28 to 95.27 points, -0.01 - Daily Necessities: 102.68 to 102.67 points, -0.01 - Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment: 103.03 to 102.78 points, -0.25 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic growth is characterized by slower steel inventory accumulation compared to previous years, with power plant daily consumption fluctuating at a high level, while inflation shows a nationwide increase in pork prices and oil prices oscillating within a range [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Economic Growth: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years 3.1.1 Production: High - level Fluctuation of Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption is fluctuating at a high level. On January 20, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 857,000 tons, a 3.8% increase from January 13. On January 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.152 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from January 8 [5][12] - The overall blast furnace operating rate has declined. On January 16, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 9, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from January 9. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 0.8 percentage points to 90.8% on January 16 compared to January 9 [5][16] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On January 15, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.9%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from January 8, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 73.4%, a 7.6 - percentage - point increase from January 8. Meanwhile, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline [5][19] 3.1.2 Demand: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 20, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 160,000 square meters, a 48.0% decrease from the same period in December, a 39.5% decrease from the same period in January last year, and a 38.4% decrease from the same period in January 2024 [5][25] - The retail growth of the automotive market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][29] - Steel prices have declined weakly. On January 20, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively compared to January 13. The inventory accumulation of steel is slower than in previous years [5][34] - Cement prices have continued to break previous lows. On January 20, the national cement price index decreased by 0.6% compared to January 13, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showing slightly weaker performance than the national average [5][37] - The glass price has ended its rebound. On January 20, the active glass futures contract price was 1,064 yuan/ton, a 4.9% decrease from January 13 [5][42] - The near - end decline of the container shipping freight rate index has widened. On January 16, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][46] 3.2 Inflation: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices - Pork prices have increased nationwide. On January 20, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.5 yuan/kg, a 2.4% increase from January 13. The month - on - month price has turned upward [5][50] - The agricultural product price index has increased seasonally before the Spring Festival. On January 20, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.6% compared to January 13. By variety, the price increases are in the order of eggs (5.7%) > pork (2.4%) > vegetables (2.4%) > fruits (1.3%) > mutton (0.7%) > beef (0.4%) > chicken (- 1.3%) [5][54] 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Oscillation within a Range - Oil prices are oscillating within a range. On January 20, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.1 and $60.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.9% and 1.3% decrease from January 13 [5][57] - Copper and aluminum prices have declined. On January 20, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.3% and 1.5% respectively compared to January 13. The domestic commodity index has turned upward month - on - month [5][61] - Industrial product prices have shown mixed month - on - month changes. Since January, the prices of glass, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial product prices have decreased month - on - month. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged [64]

Core Insights - The overall price index of Linyi Mall increased to 102.34 points this week, reflecting a slight week-on-week rise of 0.07 points, but a year-on-year decline of 1.50 points [1] Price Index Summary - Among 14 categories of goods, 5 categories saw price increases, 7 remained stable, and 2 categories experienced price declines. The top three categories with price increases were building decoration materials, steel, and household appliances and audio-visual equipment [3] Building Decoration Materials - The weekly price index for building decoration materials reached 107.49 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.81 points. The largest increase was in the decorative materials subcategory, driven by rising aluminum prices, which increased production costs [5][7] Steel - The weekly price index for steel rose to 95.25 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18 points. Various subcategories, including profiles, pipes, and construction steel, saw price increases, while plate prices slightly declined. The market remains in a seasonal downturn with limited demand [8] Household Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment - The weekly price index for household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased to 103.03 points, with a week-on-week rise of 0.07 points. The price of audio-visual equipment and refrigeration appliances increased, while prices for water heaters and purification appliances saw minor declines [10] Daily Necessities - The weekly price index for daily necessities decreased to 102.68 points, with a week-on-week decline of 0.02 points. Prices for bags, crafts, toys, and beauty products fell, influenced by seasonal demand reduction and e-commerce price competition [13] Clothing and Accessories - The weekly price index for clothing and accessories fell to 103.51 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.02 points. The decline was driven by clearance promotions for winter inventory, particularly in footwear, while clothing prices remained stable overall [16] Price Index Table - A detailed table shows the price index changes for various categories, highlighting the overall index increase and specific category movements [17]