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永艺股份(603600):外销迈入新征程,悦己消费催化内销品牌乘势而起
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-15 13:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improving external demand and a recovery in the ergonomic chair market driven by self-care consumption trends. The report highlights the potential for the company's export business to enter a new phase, supported by its global production layout and the introduction of new products [6][9][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The demand for furniture in the U.S. is expected to improve due to reduced tariff disruptions and a declining interest rate environment, which is anticipated to boost housing sales and, consequently, furniture demand. The U.S. is the largest consumer of office chairs globally, with China and Vietnam being the main producers [22][29][35]. Company Performance - The company is projected to face challenges in 2025 due to tariff impacts but is expected to see growth in 2026. Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 47.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 34.2%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 296 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year [7][58]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 34.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while net profit was 191 million yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year [58][61]. Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities in Vietnam and Romania, which enhances its supply chain advantages. The report emphasizes the importance of these locations in the context of U.S. tariff policies [64][71]. - The company is actively broadening its customer base and product categories, successfully entering new markets and channels, including partnerships with major retailers like Costco and Sam's [75][78]. Market Potential - The ergonomic chair market in China is projected to reach 22 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.1%. The report notes that the perception of ergonomic chairs is evolving from mere tools to symbols of quality living, indicating a significant market opportunity [9][11][22]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 295 million yuan in 2025, with subsequent increases to 401 million yuan in 2026 and 495 million yuan in 2027. The report adjusts the profit estimates slightly upward for 2026 and 2027 based on expected improvements in both export and domestic sales [10][11][58].