服装丨市场观察 本周看点： -奢侈品牌，谁在大手笔升级中国门店？ -运动户外品牌如何分走奢侈品牌的"蛋糕"？ -安踏李宁特步，集体撞上"中年墙 "。 行业环境 1.亚瑟士和LV，抢着卖高价香水 关键词 ： 香水生意,时尚品牌,生活方式,美妆领域,奢侈品 概要 ： 香水生意正成为时尚品牌拓展生活方式的重要领域，运动品牌鬼塚虎和轻奢品牌珑骧 近期纷纷进军香水市场。全球香水市场规模预计从2025年的530亿美元增长至2032年的775.3亿 美元，高端细分市场增长最快。奢侈品集团如香奈儿、开云集团在主营业务下滑时，美妆业务 表现强劲，促使更多品牌布局香水领域。鬼塚虎与知名香水设计师合作推出系列香水，强调品 牌调性而非急于变现；珑骧则选择与专业香水企业合作。高端小众香水成为行业趋势，如PUIG 集团旗下品牌表现突出，但整体增速放缓。时尚品牌跨界香水旨在提升品牌价值，未来能否成 为业绩助力取决于市场发展。 2.奢侈品牌，谁在大手笔升级中国门店？ 关键词 ： 奢侈品市场,增长放缓,门店数量,中国市场,品牌活力 概要 ： 2025年上半年，中国奢侈品市场增长放缓，奢侈品牌新开门店数量同比下降38%，焕新 门店数量下降30% ...

Core Insights - The market for "doll clothes" is rapidly expanding, becoming a standard for young consumers who showcase personalized outfits on social media platforms [1][12] - Traditional clothing companies are increasingly entering the "doll clothes" sector, leading to a surge in overseas orders and a vibrant consumer market [1][11] Market Trends - The "doll clothes" segment is experiencing a new wave of interest, with products ranging from basic to high-end custom designs, incorporating both modern trends and traditional cultural elements [1][3] - The use of national-level intangible cultural heritage fabrics in "doll clothes" is helping to merge traditional clothing with contemporary styles, appealing to younger consumers [3][12] Sales Performance - Sales of "doll clothes" have seen significant growth, with some stores reporting nearly a 50% increase in sales during the summer compared to the previous year [5] - An e-commerce platform indicated that the total sales revenue for "doll clothes" in 2024 is expected to grow by over 117.08% year-on-year, with a single month in May surpassing 10 million yuan in sales [5][12] Consumer Demographics - The primary consumers of "doll clothes" are young families and individuals, with a notable increase in demand for personalized and custom-made options [5][6] - The trend of emotional and self-satisfying consumption is driving the growth of the "doll clothes" market, allowing for unique creations and personal expression [6][12] Global Market Impact - The global market for "doll clothes" is witnessing a surge in orders from regions such as South America, North America, and Japan, with production ramping up to meet demand [11][12] - The overall collectible toy market is projected to grow from $20.3 billion in 2020 to $41.8 billion by 2024, with an annual growth rate of 19.8%, indicating strong potential for the "doll clothes" export market [14]

上 市 公 司 社会服务 2025 年 08 月 23 日 圣贝拉 (02508) ——稳占高端月子服务心智，向家庭服务全周期进军 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.78 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 11.00/6.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 42.18 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 622.20 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0955 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Wind 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 聂霜 (8621)23297818× nieshuang@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | - ...

Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring two key variables: the performance of the brokerage sector and trading volume, which should remain above 2 trillion to maintain market strength [2][10] - The overall market trend remains positive, supported by macroeconomic recovery and favorable policies, despite potential short-term volatility [4][10] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the market experienced fluctuations, with major indices initially declining before rebounding, leading to a V-shaped recovery, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high [1][9] - The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for the sixth consecutive day, indicating strong market activity, although there was a decrease of 300 billion from the peak on Monday [1][9] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed significant gains, with a long-term positive outlook supported by national policy and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [6][7] - Consumer sectors, particularly liquor and food, also saw upward movement, driven by domestic consumption recovery and supportive policies [7][8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a rational and cautious approach, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and good technical patterns while being wary of overvalued stocks [2][10] - Attention should be directed towards undervalued sectors with earnings support, maintaining flexibility in trading strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving drinking culture in China, particularly among younger consumers who prefer a "light drinking" lifestyle, leading to the launch of Gujing Gongjiu's new product, "Light Ancient 20," which aligns with this trend [2][3][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - Gujing Gongjiu launched the "Light Ancient 20," a low-alcohol (26 degrees) white liquor, on August 19, which emphasizes a "self-enjoyment" lifestyle [3][5]. - The product aims to provide a comfortable drinking experience while retaining the traditional flavors of strong aromatic white liquor, appealing to modern consumer preferences [3][5]. - The "Light Ancient 20" is positioned within the "golden drunkenness zone," catering to the desires of younger consumers for a balance between mild intoxication and enjoyment [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - The white liquor market is shifting towards lower alcohol content, with predictions indicating that the low-alcohol market could reach 700 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the 18-35 age group [6][7]. - The industry is entering a "3.0 era" where consumers seek cultural, value-based, and lifestyle-oriented experiences, necessitating a shift from traditional marketing strategies [4][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Brand Strategy - Gujing Gongjiu is actively innovating to meet diverse consumer needs, including the introduction of health-oriented products like "Gujing Shenli Jiu," which combines traditional brewing techniques with modern health concepts [10][11]. - The company is also focusing on creating a "white liquor + product ecosystem" to enhance consumer experiences and promote a lifestyle centered around health and enjoyment [10][11]. - The return of classic products like "Old Porcelain Tribute" and "Old Glass Tribute" reflects the brand's commitment to honoring its heritage while appealing to contemporary tastes [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company, Yuyuan Group, is a platform-type consumer industry company with a diversified business layout, including jewelry fashion, cultural dining, national trend watches, beauty and health, and composite functional real estate. The company aims to create a happy life for global family customers and is actively embracing consumption structure adjustments and new trends in national trends [5][15] - The jewelry fashion business is positioned to lead the consumption trend, with the company leveraging its multi-brand and all-channel strategy to build competitive barriers [7][14] - The report provides a profit forecast for the company, estimating net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 463 million, 1.259 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 48.9X, 18.0X, and 10.9X [8][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuyuan Group is actively adjusting its business layout and deepening its "Oriental Lifestyle Aesthetics" strategy, focusing on family consumption and adapting to market changes [15][19] - The company has experienced significant fluctuations in operating performance, with revenue and profit growth from 2018 to 2022, but facing pressure in 2023 and 2024 due to external factors [15][19] Jewelry Fashion Business - The jewelry business, primarily under the brands "Laomiao" and "Yayi," has a strong market presence with 4,615 retail outlets by the end of 2024. The company employs a franchise model for rapid market expansion while enhancing brand image through direct stores [7][14] - The report notes a shift in consumer demand towards self-purchase and cultural significance in gold jewelry, with the company innovating in product design and marketing strategies [6][7] Other Consumer Segments - The report discusses the company's restaurant management and service sector, emphasizing the importance of traditional Chinese brands and a focus on light asset expansion [8] - The food, department store, and craft sectors are expected to transition from traditional craftsmanship to modern industrialization, with a focus on pre-prepared meals and health supplements [8] - The fashion watch segment shows stable revenue with improving profitability, while the property development and sales segment is anticipated to contribute positively in the future due to a solid project reserve [8][19] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The financial forecast indicates a recovery in net profit from 2025 onwards, with significant growth expected in subsequent years. The report assigns a "Buy" rating based on the company's strategic positioning and market potential [8][10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation and challenges in the capital market, highlighting the shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in China's public fund industry, driven by the evolution of fund managers and research systems [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The willingness to pay for happiness has no ceiling, as stated by the fund manager, indicating that companies creating joy for consumers can achieve high market valuations [10] - The investment framework is rooted in the belief that emotional consumption will dominate as material wealth increases, with a focus on sectors like trendy toys and pets that resonate emotionally with consumers [8][10] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund manager employs a "four-quadrant stock selection model" that differentiates investment criteria based on technology and media trends, cyclical investments, consumer cycles, and product innovation [7] - The strategy includes focusing on non-linear growth potential in TMT sectors, early-stage investments in cyclical industries, and identifying innovative consumer products that can withstand economic fluctuations [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The article discusses the potential for "self-indulgent consumption" to become a significant trend in the market, drawing parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where emotional consumption surged during economic slowdowns [8] - The fund manager identifies a growing market for AI applications in gaming and emotional companionship, suggesting that these innovations will create new investment opportunities [9] Group 4: Performance Metrics - The fund manager achieved a return of 39.86% since taking over the management of the fund, with a notable stock, Pop Mart, increasing over 600% during the holding period [6] - The article highlights the importance of understanding media dynamics and their impact on content creation and company valuations, suggesting that new media will foster the emergence of successful companies [10][11] Group 5: Industry Insights - The article notes that the public fund industry is increasingly focusing on index and enhanced index investments, with a significant number of new products launched in these areas [13] - The fund manager emphasizes the importance of risk control while seeking to expand revenue opportunities, particularly in light of the challenges posed by diminishing alpha returns in the market [14]

Core Insights - The willingness to pay for happiness has no ceiling, indicating a strong consumer demand for companies that can deliver joy and satisfaction [1][4] - The investment strategy focuses on the intersection of consumer goods and technology, particularly in sectors that enhance emotional connections and innovative products [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment framework is built around the concept of "happiness," with a focus on companies that create positive experiences for consumers [1] - A four-quadrant stock selection model is employed, emphasizing non-linear growth potential in TMT sectors, early-stage investments in cyclical industries, and innovative consumer products [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The shift from functional consumption to emotional consumption is highlighted, with a comparison to Japan's market evolution in the 1990s, suggesting a similar trajectory for China [3] - The rise of "self-indulgent consumption" is identified as a significant trend, with categories like trendy toys, pets, and gaming expected to see substantial growth [3] Group 3: Company Performance - A notable example is a leading trendy toy company that has shown resilience and growth despite broader market declines, indicating strong brand loyalty and emotional engagement [3] - The performance of the trendy toy sector is linked to emotional connections and the potential for high returns, akin to blockbuster films [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next decade is expected to see an increasing importance of the media sector in China's economy, with significant cultural consumption trends emerging [3] - The belief that companies creating joy can achieve high market valuations is reinforced, with references to global giants like Disney as benchmarks for potential success [4]

Core Viewpoint - The willingness to pay for happiness has no ceiling, indicating a strong potential for companies that can create joy and emotional connections for consumers [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes companies that enhance life quality and happiness, reflecting a personal value system [1]. - The manager has achieved a return of 39.86% since taking over the fund, with a significant increase of over 600% in a key holding [1]. - The investment strategy is built on a cross-industry perspective, particularly focusing on the intersection of consumer goods and technology, known as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The trend towards "self-consumption" and emotional spending is seen as a significant industry trend, with potential for growth in various sectors such as toys, pets, and gaming [3]. - The manager draws parallels with Japan's 1990s experience, suggesting that as material wealth increases, emotional consumption will take precedence [3]. - The manager identified a leading toy company that continued to grow despite a general decline in retail sales, highlighting its unique emotional connection with consumers [3]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The emergence of AI applications in emotional companionship is expected to create new market opportunities, enhancing consumer experiences in gaming and other sectors [4]. - The importance of the media sector in the A-share market is projected to increase, with notable successes in various cultural products indicating a cultural consumption boom [4]. - Companies that can consistently create joy for consumers may have limitless market potential, similar to Disney's historical market cap achievements [6]. Group 4: Valuation Perspective - The belief that industry trends are more critical than valuation metrics shapes the investment approach, allowing for tolerance of high absolute valuations if justified by growth potential [6]. - The manager highlights the disparity in valuation perceptions between traditional analysts and those focused on emerging technologies, suggesting that this difference can lead to excess returns [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the promotion of the "first store economy" in the Yangtze River Delta region, particularly through Zhejiang's action plan aiming to establish over 2,000 new city brand first stores by 2027 [1][2] - The action plan focuses on key service sectors such as leisure, creative dining, cultural tourism, health care, and education, aiming to attract innovative and high-tech service brands [1] - Financial support and a favorable business environment are highlighted as essential for the development of the first store economy, with initiatives to create a "Zhejiang First Store Map" and encourage financial institutions to develop suitable credit products [1][2] Group 2 - The policy aligns with the broader trend of consumption transformation, providing comprehensive support for brand establishment, which lowers entry barriers and costs for brands [2] - Jiangsu province has also introduced measures to promote the first store economy, focusing on hosting high-end sports events and creating original brand events to enhance consumer experiences [2] - Nanjing has become a new hub for brand launches, attracting over 1,200 first stores and achieving a 95% coverage of global first-tier brands, ranking fourth in China's first store economy [2] Group 3 - In Shanghai, the "Louis Vuitton Concept Landmark" has significantly boosted foot traffic and sales in the surrounding area, demonstrating the strong momentum of the first store economy [3] - The "Louis号" project has led to a 50% increase in surrounding consumption in its first month, showcasing the impact of first store activities on local consumer engagement [3] - The integration of "first exhibition + first store + first show" in initiatives like "Louis号" is noted for its ability to attract consumers and stimulate surrounding commercial activity [3]