A 股策略周报：以打促谈静待临界点到来 市场风格步入再平衡 2026 年 3 月 31 日 A 股策略 策略周报 分析师 林阳 电话：021-65465572 邮箱：linyang@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524080001 周度观点： 以打促谈静待临界点到来。随着美以伊冲突升级，战争持续时间的分歧明显增加，美伊在谈判上存在较大的分歧，使得 谈判短期难以达成协议 ，未来以打促谈的态势较为明显，只有战局明显向某一方倾斜的时候，谈判的契机才会出现。短 期冲突带来的高油价仍然会持续，对全球供应链影响随着时间推移将会影响更加显著，市场担忧情绪明显增强。冲突各 方都有各自利益诉求，战争升级是大概率事件，但长期高烈度冲突显然难以长期维持，一旦冲突各方资源消耗达到一定 限度，谈判的临界点就会到来，我们认为，4 月下旬有可能是第一个临界点，美国国务卿鲁比奥在 3 月 27 日明确表示， 对伊军事行动还将持续 2 至 4 周，从 3 月底算起，4 月中下旬正好是这一窗口的末端，美国 2026 年中期选举临近，5 月 前必须控制战争负面影响。油价飙升、通胀反弹、反战情绪上升、支持率下滑。共和党内部压力增大 ...

以下文章来源于凤凰网财经 ，作者公司研究院 凤凰网财经 . 你好，我们是凤凰网财经，全球华人都在看的财经公众号，传播最有价值的财经报道，你值得关注！欢 迎访问：http://finance.ifeng.com/ 作者： 公司研究院 来源： 凤凰网财经 一夜之间， "中国床垫第一股"喜临门，被自家"内鬼"推上了风口浪尖。 -------------------------- 3月27日，喜临门（SH603008）一纸公告震惊市场： 公司发现下属控股子公司喜途科技有限公司 的银行账户资金遭遇非法划转，金额高达1亿元人民币。 为防范风险蔓延，公司不得不紧急将旗下涉及约 9亿元的多个银行账户进行了保护性冻结。累计超 过10亿元的资金牵涉其中，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的26.54%，占货币资金的比例更是高达 42.69%。 这起 "内鬼案"，不仅暴露了公司内部管理的重大漏洞，也立刻引来了监管层的火速介入。 对于这家拥有5000多家线下专卖店、业务覆盖70多个国家 及地区 的行业龙头而言，这场突如其来 的家贼风波，无疑是一记沉重的警钟。 图片来源：公告截图 01 家贼难防，紧急止血 喜临门成立于 1996年， 业务包括 ...

记者丨 朱芷葵 编辑丨江佩霞 3月27日晚间，喜临门（603008）公告称，近日，公司发现下属控股子公司喜途科技有限公司 的银行账户资金被非法划转， 划转资金累计1亿元。 公告披露，经公司核查，发现相关人员涉 嫌利用职务之便，非法挪用公司资金。 喜临门称，公司已于2026年3月26日向公安机关申请立案侦查，并将可能涉及到的相关银行账 户进行保护性冻结， 保护性司法冻结金额约9亿元， 非法划转资金1亿元，两者合计超过10亿 元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的26.54%，占公司最近一期经审计货币资金的42.69%。这 也意味着，资金波及范围广、占比体量高，直接牵动了企业经营基本面。 公告显示，截至目前， 被非法划转资金的追回事宜尚存在一定不确定性，若资金无法追回， 可能对公司的净利润造成不利影响。 这起"内鬼案"，不仅暴露了公司内部管理的重大漏洞，也立刻引来了监管层的火速介入。公告 当晚，上交所火速就喜临门账户资金划转及冻结相关事项下发监管工作函，涉及对象为上市公 司、董事、高级管理人员、控股股东及实际控制人。 公开资料显示，喜临门成立于1996年，业务包括设计、研发、生产和销售以床垫为核心的高品 质深睡产品，主 ...

来源|凤凰网财经《公司研究院》 一夜之间， "中国床垫第一股"喜临门，被自家"内鬼"推上了风口浪尖。 3月27日，喜临门（SH603008）一纸公告震惊市场：公司发现下属控股子公司喜途科技有限公司的银行账户资金遭遇非法划转，金额高达1亿元人 民币。 为防范风险蔓延，公司不得不紧急将旗下涉及约 9亿元的多个银行账户进行了保护性冻结。累计超过10亿元的资金牵涉其中，占公司最近一期经审计 净资产的26.54%，占货币资金的比例更是高达42.69%。 这起 "内鬼案"，不仅暴露了公司内部管理的重大漏洞，也立刻引来了监管层的火速介入。对于这家拥有5000多家线下专卖店、业务覆盖70多个国家 及地区 的行业龙头而言，这场突如其来的家贼风波，无疑是一记沉重的警钟。 图片来源：公告截图 01 家贼难防，紧急止血 喜临门成立于 1996年， 业务包括 设计、研发、生产和销售以床垫为核心的高品质深睡产品，主要产品 有 床垫、床、沙发及其他配套客卧家具，广 泛应用于家庭、酒店、公寓及多元商业场景 。 公司创始人、董事长为陈阿裕。 1984年，受墨西哥电影《叶塞尼亚》启发，年仅22岁的陈阿裕用1000元钱创办一间只有几十平米的床垫作 ...

遭 "家贼"挪用1亿元，"中国床垫第一股"喜临门突发重大内控暴雷。 3月27日晚间，喜临门突然发布公告称，公司下属控股子公司喜途科技有限公司的银行账户 资金被非法划转，累计金额高达1亿元。经公司核查，系相关人员涉嫌利用职务之便，非法 挪用公司资金。 为防止风险进一步蔓延、保全公司资金安全，喜临门同步采取风控措施，对公司合计约 9 亿元银行账户实施保护性冻结。经统计，本次涉案挪用资金与保护性冻结资金累计规模超 10 亿元，占到公司最近一期经审计净资产的26.54%、货币资金的42.69%。 这也意味着，资金波及范围广、占比体量高，直接牵动了企业经营基本面。 公告披露后，上交所迅速介入监管， 就喜临门账户资金划转及冻结相关事项下发监管工作 函，涉及对象为上市公司、董事、高级管理人员、控股股东及实际控制人。 " 内鬼案 " 爆发之际，喜临门的经营基本面同样不容乐观 ， 多年深陷增收不增利困境，创 始人陈阿裕正直面企业发展的内忧外患。 内控暴雷， 文 | 《BUG》栏目 闫妍 1亿元被挪用，9亿元遭冻结 3月27日，喜临门发布《关于公司控股子公司账户资金被非法划转及部分银行账户被保护性 冻结的公告》。将自身推上了舆论 ...

Core Insights - The consumer market has shifted dramatically from a period of growth (2016-2021) to a downturn in 2022 and 2023, leading to concerns about consumer spending and perceived economic challenges [1][2] - The traditional model of supply-driven consumption is being replaced by a consumer-driven approach, where consumers prioritize convenience and emotional connection over mere product quality and price [2][3] Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers now have more power and are more discerning, leading to a decline in the effectiveness of traditional low-price strategies [3] - The concept of "not raising prices while upgrading consumption" is introduced as a counterintuitive strategy to adapt to changing consumer expectations [5] Strategic Insights from Industry Leaders - Chang Bin, founder of Qicheng Capital, emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of consumer behavior and the need for traditional and new brands to adapt their strategies [4][6] - Traditional companies ("old brands") need to shift their focus to user value, while new brands ("emerging brands") must develop their capabilities to navigate market challenges [7] Case Studies and Practical Applications - Qicheng Capital has successfully assisted brands like Lin Qingxuan in transforming their strategies, demonstrating the potential for growth through strategic innovation [8] - The article highlights the importance of aligning business strategies with organizational capabilities to achieve sustainable growth [9] Course Offerings - The article promotes a course that aims to provide insights into consumer behavior, strategies for "not raising prices while upgrading consumption," and practical methods for traditional and emerging brands to adapt [9][10][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of a new round of smart flagship products, significantly enhancing product capabilities and showcasing the company's research and development technology gene [2] - The company has adjusted its profit expectations upwards, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating due to the sales potential of key new products and increased confidence in downstream channels [11] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing internal transformation and the positive impact of new product launches on profitability [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 19,212 million in 2023, with a growth rate of 6.7%. It is expected to decline to 18,480 million in 2024, then rise to 25,569 million by 2027 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 2,006 million in 2023, with a significant drop to 1,417 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,394 million in 2027 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.44 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 1.72 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 2.91 yuan by 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 20.9% in 2023 to 14.4% in 2024, before recovering to 19.5% in 2027 [4] Product Development - The company launched four flagship smart products, including the Hertz S9 smart sofa and the M8 smart mattress, which feature advanced technologies and design innovations [11] - The Hertz S9 smart sofa offers a zero-gravity experience with a large seat depth of 64 cm and a unique massage system [11] - The M8 smart mattress includes adaptive pressure relief technology and dynamic adjustments for personalized comfort [11] Global Expansion - The company has completed the foundation laying for its Indonesia base, which will produce various home products for both local and international markets, with an expected annual output value of 220 million USD [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on various sectors including consumer goods, automotive, food and beverage, and healthcare Core Insights and Arguments Consumer Sector - Domestic demand is highlighted as a safe haven amid global uncertainties, particularly in food, condiments, and agricultural products with strong free cash flow [2][1] - The pork farming sector is at a cyclical bottom, with significant cash flow losses expected until mid-2026, presenting a good opportunity for investment [7][1] - The liquor industry is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with high-end liquor sales rebounding first, expected to end destocking by the second half of 2026 [21][1] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is driven by both domestic and international market dynamics, with companies like Geely and BYD expected to see significant valuation increases due to their competitive advantages and technological innovations [12][1][13][1] - Geely is projected to become the second-largest global electric vehicle seller, with potential profits exceeding 30 billion yuan [13][1] - BYD's innovative fast-charging technology is expected to stabilize its market share, with a long-term market value target of 1.5 trillion yuan [13][1] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in growth rates in the second half of 2026, despite a slowdown in some segments post-Spring Festival [20][1][23][1] - The condiment industry is facing rising raw material costs, with leading companies like Haidilao expected to adjust pricing strategies to maintain margins [24][1] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is witnessing price increases in specific segments, such as medical gloves and biological assets, which could impact profit margins differently across companies [27][1][28][1] - Investment strategies in innovative pharmaceuticals should focus on companies with strong profit support, such as Huadong Medicine and Kanghong Pharmaceutical [28][1] Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance industry is focusing on leading white goods companies with stable cash flows and attractive dividend yields, such as Midea and Haier, which are expected to grow 6-8% annually [32][1][33][1] - Companies with global competitiveness in emerging categories are also highlighted, with Anker Innovations and TCL Electronics being recommended for their growth potential [33][1][34][1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The textile and apparel industry is nearing the end of a destocking phase, with companies like Li Ning and Bi Yin Le Fen expected to benefit from improved market conditions [18][1][19][1] - The restaurant supply chain is recovering, with companies like Anjuke Food and Sanquan Food projected to maintain double-digit growth [25][1] - The overall investment logic across sectors emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential amid fluctuating market conditions [2][1][32][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data at the beginning of 2026 is strong, but its sustainability needs further observation. The economic structure shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price related to domestic demand may still be under pressure. The bond market fluctuates in the short - term, and there is a repair opportunity after the quarter - end [1][5][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Economic Overview - The economic data from January to February 2026 is strong, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The growth of the supply side is affected by the Spring Festival factor, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The industrial added value from January to February increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the service industry production index increased by 5.2% year - on - year, while the fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% and social retail sales increased by 2.8% [1][9]. 3.2 Industrial Output - External demand and the Spring Festival factor jointly drive industrial output. The industrial added value from January to February 2026 increased by 1.1 percentage points to 6.3%, and the service industry GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The export growth rate drove the export delivery value growth rate to increase by 3.1 percentage points to 6.3%. New economy maintains a high growth rate, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% and 13.1% respectively [2][10]. 3.3 Consumption - The consumption growth rate has rebounded but remains at a low level, indicating weak consumption demand. In January - February 2026, social retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, up 1.9 percentage points from December last year. The growth is related to residents' income pressure and low consumption willingness. Some basic and upgraded consumer goods sales have improved, and the retail sales of some industries have increased significantly due to the Spring Festival [3][14]. 3.4 Investment - The investment growth rate has turned positive but is still at a low level. In January - February 2026, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.8% year - on - year, up 17.0 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment achieved positive growth, at 9.8% and 3.1% respectively, offsetting the decline in real estate investment (-11.1%) [3][17]. 3.5 Real Estate - Real estate investment continues to operate at the bottom, and the construction and sales ends are still under pressure. From January to February, real estate investment was -11.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The construction end data is deteriorating, and the sales end has improved slightly under the influence of policies, but developers' confidence is still insufficient [4][19]. 3.6 Bond Market - The bond market fluctuates in the short - term. The long - end fluctuates greatly due to low participation of allocation - type institutions, while the short - end declines due to loose liquidity and falling inter - bank deposit rates. The long - end adjustment may not be sustainable, and the market is expected to repair after the quarter - end. It is recommended to increase leverage in the short - term and choose a suitable riding position [5][26].

Economic Performance - Industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in January-February, exceeding the expected 5.0%[1] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, against an expected decline of 4.2%[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.1%[1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 5.6%, rebounding by 0.5 percentage points from December[1] - The gap between supply and demand narrowed from 9.6 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points[1] External Demand and Exports - Industrial export delivery value surged by 6.3%, the highest growth rate since April of the previous year, contributing 0.7 percentage points to industrial added value[2] - The expected annual export growth rate has been revised upward from 3-5% to around 6%[2] Consumer Spending Trends - Retail sales growth for services reached 5.6%, significantly higher than the 2.5% growth for goods[2] - Automobile sales negatively impacted retail performance, contributing a drag effect of 2.2 percentage points on retail sales[3] Infrastructure and Investment - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.8%, with infrastructure investment growing at 11.4%, outperforming manufacturing and real estate investments[4] - State-owned investment rose by 7.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous year's decline of 2.5%[4] Real Estate Market Insights - Real estate sales area and sales value showed better-than-seasonal performance, with sales area declining by only 1.1% month-on-month[5] - New home prices in first-tier cities saw a reduced decline of 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a stabilization trend[5] Overall Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates improvements in consumption and investment, particularly in infrastructure, driven by state-owned enterprises[6] - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, although challenges remain due to previous weak sales and limited land acquisition by developers[6]