证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 经营效益提升，外销表现较好 [Table_Title2] 敏华控股(1999.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1999 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 4.87/3.6 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 201.66 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 5.2 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 201.66 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 3,878.08 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 分析判断: ► 收入端：国内沙发市场或已触底，海外市场韧性强劲 分地区看：报告期内公司（1）中国市场实现营收 46.75 亿港元，同比-6.0%，同比降幅较去年同期大幅收窄。具 体拆分看报告期国内沙发市场销量持平，平均售价略有下调（系线上占比提升所致），国内沙发零售市场或已触 底，公司将持续优化产品组合提升性价比，并加强与 ...

中国光大银行：每股人民币0.1050元，除净日：--，派息日期：--；恒生一级行业：银行，是中证港股 通央企红利指数（931233.CSI）指数的成分股，是恒生中国内地企业高股息率指数的成分股。 敏华控股：每股0.15港元，除净日：2025-12-01，派息日期：2025-12-17；恒生一级行业：家具，非中 证港股通央企红利指数（931233.CSI）指数的成分股，非恒生中国内地企业高股息率指数的成分股。 注：除净日，就是一只股票开始"剔除"即将派发的股息（红利）的日期。从这一天起，买入该股票的投 资者，将无法享受到本次派发的股息。 中证港股通央企红利指数（931233.CSI）指数，从港股通范围内，选取中央企业实际控制的分红水平稳 定且股息率较高的50只上市公司股票进行打包；截至11月14日，该指数近1年股息率是5.56%，高于同 期10年期国债收益率3.74%，港股央企红利ETF（513910）是跟踪该指数规模最大的投资标的。 恒生中国内地企业高股息率（HSMCHYI.HI）指数，筛选打包在港上市，内地公司中的高股息股票； 截至11月14日，该指数近1年股息率是5.26%，高于同期10年期国债收益率3. ...

中国光大银行（601818）：每股人民币0.1050元，除净日：--，派息日期：--；恒生一级行业：银行， 是中证港股通央企红利指数(931233.CSI)指数的成分股，是恒生中国内地企业高股息率指数的成分股。 古茗：每股0.93港元，除净日：2025-12-08，派息日期：2025-12-29；恒生一级行业：非酒精饮料，非 中证港股通央企红利指数(931233.CSI)指数的成分股，非恒生中国内地企业高股息率指数的成分股。 沪上阿姨：每股人民币0.6760元，除净日：2025-12-12，派息日期：2026-02-04；恒生一级行业：非酒 精饮料，非中证港股通央企红利指数(931233.CSI)指数的成分股，非恒生中国内地企业高股息率指数的 成分股。 景福集团：每股0.004港元，除净日：2025-11-28，派息日期：2025-12-11；恒生一级行业：珠宝钟表， 非中证港股通央企红利指数(931233.CSI)指数的成分股，非恒生中国内地企业高股息率指数的成分股。 敏华控股：每股0.15港元，除净日：2025-12-01，派息日期：2025-12-17；恒生一级行业：家具，非中 证港股通央企红利指数(9 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The furniture industry is currently in a bottoming phase due to declining real estate sales and the reduction of subsidies, with a focus on quality companies like Gujia and Xilinmen, as well as operational turning points for companies like Oppein and Sophia [1][2] - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and tobacco and alcohol sales grew by 13.5%, 7.4%, and 4.1% respectively, with pet supplies performing exceptionally well [1][3] - The retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with commodity retail growing by 2.8% and the catering industry by 3.8% [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - The furniture retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in October, but this was a slowdown compared to September. The decline in building materials and home appliances sales was significant, with drops of 8.3% and 14.6% respectively [2] - The hotel sector benefited from the release of business travel demand and strong cultural tourism demand, with October's RevPAR remaining flat year-on-year but exceeding expectations in the weeks following the holiday [1][9] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 4.6 trillion yuan, with supermarkets growing by 4.7% and department stores by only 1% [6] Investment Opportunities - For 2026, there is a focus on opportunities in overseas manufacturing and brand expansion, with domestic demand expected to recover in a lower interest rate environment. Recommended stocks include Xiangxin, YK Medical, Meiyingsen, Zhongxing Co., and Jiayi Co. [1][5] - The retail sector is expected to see improvements in companies like Yonghui and Bubugao in the fourth quarter and next year [7] - The hotel sector is projected to have a favorable supply-demand relationship in 2026, with recommendations for stocks like Shoulv Jinjiang, Atour, and Huazhu [10] Other Important Insights - The duty-free sector has shown strong performance, with significant growth in sales and average transaction value following new policy implementations [1][11][12] - The automotive sector experienced a decline in retail sales in October, with a total of 425.5 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 7.5% [13][14] - The white goods sector is currently facing challenges due to reduced subsidies, but there are still investment opportunities in leading companies like Midea, Haier, and Gree, which are expected to have strong performance in the medium to long term [23][24][26][27] Conclusion - The overall consumer data for the coming year is expected to show a positive trend, with structural growth in certain sectors like the three-wheeled vehicle business of Aima Technology contributing positively to overall consumption [28]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 8.241 billion for FY2026 H1, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while the operating income was HKD 8.045 billion, down 3.1% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.6% year-on-year to HKD 1.146 billion, indicating improved profitability despite challenging market conditions [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 4.675 billion in the Chinese market for FY2026 H1, a decline of 6.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.0%, up 0.8 percentage points. Offline store revenue decreased by 12.3% to HKD 3.059 billion, while online sales increased by 13.6% to HKD 1.144 billion. The company reduced its store count by 327 during this period [2] - The overseas market generated revenue of HKD 2.161 billion from North America, a slight increase of 0.3%, and HKD 0.765 billion from Europe and other markets, up 4.3%. The overall gross margin for overseas markets was 39.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company's gross margin and net margin for FY2026 H1 were 40.4% and 14.2%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.9 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The total sales and administrative expense ratio was 23.7% [3] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50.8% for FY2026 H1, continuing its trend of returning over 50% to shareholders [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2026-2028 is HKD 2.32 billion, HKD 2.44 billion, and HKD 2.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.5X, 8.0X, and 7.6X [4]

11月14日，各家电商平台大促活动基本落幕，这个史上最长"双11"，正以深刻的场景变革悄然改写消费格局。AI服务普及、即时零售兴起， 让"狂欢式购物"向"体验式消费"转型；国家贴息政策落地分期免息，让金融服务顺滑地嵌入消费场景，推动市场从"价格战"走向"价值战"，为 提振消费、扩大内需注入持久动能。 这份"真金白银的实惠"，源自今年双11的政策落地创新实践。在国家1%个人消费贷贴息政策引导下，淘宝天猫联合平台商家加码补贴，上 线"国家贴息"商品专区，过亿款商品支持花呗分期免息，让政策红利直接触达消费终端。 对于商家而言，有国家财政资金补贴消费者，原本用于促销的预算，就可以拿来为消费者提供更多的分期免息商品，拉高分期免息的期数，借 助金融工具，让更多消费者"能消费、愿消费"，进而拓展品牌的客群边界。 这一消费者与商家共赢式的举措，是国家提振消费战略的重要探索。中国社科院金融所银行研究室副主任王增武指出，近期发布的十五五规划 建议再次强调"大力提振消费"，而提振消费需要社会多方协力。 "从双11国家贴息应用到分期免息场景看，国家实现消费补贴的精准滴灌，平台商家带动了自身销量增长，消费者也得到真金白银的实惠，是 国 ...

Economic Overview - October economic data shows a continued weakening trend, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[1] - Retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking five consecutive months of decline[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with October showing a significant drop of 12.2%[7] Production Insights - The industrial production index for October reflects a 4.9% year-on-year growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17%[3] - New growth drivers are emerging, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 7.2%, outpacing overall industrial growth[16] - Service sector production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year, although this was impacted by last year's high base[17] Consumption Trends - The consumption of automobiles, home appliances, and furniture has significantly weakened, contrasting with the resilience seen in communication equipment[4] - Jewelry retail sales showed strong growth at 37.6% year-on-year, driven by asset allocation and recovery in wedding-related spending[21] - The "old-for-new" policy's effectiveness is diminishing, leading to anticipated pressure on retail sales in the fourth quarter[20] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year decline of 6.7% in October, with a cumulative growth of only 2.7% from January to October[37] - Infrastructure investment remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% in October, continuing a downward trend[45] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline, with investment down 14.7% year-on-year from January to October[31] Employment and Policy Outlook - The urban unemployment rate in October was reported at 5.1%, showing a slight decrease, indicating some stabilization in the job market[8] - The government maintains a cautious stance on large-scale stimulus policies, focusing instead on structural optimization and supply upgrades[23] - Future investment confidence may improve following recent diplomatic engagements and the introduction of new financial tools to support infrastructure projects[32]

"双11"期间，淘宝天猫上线"国家贴息"商品专区，在国家贴息和平台商家加码共同补贴之下，专区的商品都支持花呗分期免息，消费者 不需要支付任何利息。 有了"国家贴息"，消费者更愿意消费了！ 今年"双11"，在国家贴息政策带动下，平台和商家加码补贴，为消费者提供了过亿款分期免息商品。来自淘宝天猫的数据显示，国家贴 息政策应用到分期免息场景后，消费潜力得到有效释放，"双11"期间人均分期消费金额较9月提升了18%。 国家贴息惠及更多普通消费者 今年以来，国家推出多项政策措施，激发市场活力，释放消费潜力。9月起，《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》落地实施，从国 家层面，通过财政贴息，降低居民消费信贷成本。 多方协力撬动促消费杠杆 有国家财政的资金进来补贴消费者，商家的预算就可以拿来为消费者提供更多的分期免息商品，拉高分期免息的期数。从"双11"期间的 数据来看，不少商家已经感受到"协力"带来的提振效应。 波司登集团副总裁赵翔介绍，今年"双11"期间，波司登百元以上商品的分期免息覆盖率达97.8%，分期免息支付金额占比为12.7%，"分 期免息服务已经成为推动成交转化的重要引擎"。高端猫粮品牌弗列加特天猫旗舰店运营负 ...

最新数据显示，自10月30日淘宝天猫平台上线"国家贴息"专区以来，已吸引6500万消费者浏览关注。在政策与 市场的双轮驱动下，我国消费市场正在积蓄新的动能，为经济高质量发展注入持久动力。 政策精准发力，普惠金融润泽万家 政策东风持续激发市场活力，今年以来，国家促消费政策体系不断完善。 6500万人浏览关注、人均分期消费提升18%、新增近200万个分期免息用户…… 今年"双11"购物节期间，消费市场迎来一股温暖的春风。当国家贴息政策与花呗分期免息相遇，一场政府、平 台、商家与消费者的多方共赢故事正在上演。这不仅是一次简单的促销活动，更是一次金融助力消费的创新实 践。 6月，中国人民银行等六部门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》要求，聚焦消费重点领域 和环节加大金融支持力度 ；8月，财政部等三部门联合印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》（下 称"贴息方案"），明确对符合条件的个人消费贷款给予年贴息比例1%的财政支持。 政策实施以来，市场响应迅速。自9月1日贴息方案正式落地，电商平台与品牌商家积极跟进，在落实国家贴息 政策的同时，主动加大配套投入，共同推动消费市场回暖。 今年"双11"期间，淘宝天 ...

从濒临退市到股价上涨约10倍，一家家居企业只用了7个多月的时间。这家企业就是目前仍在退市警告 的亚振家居（ST亚振）。 ST亚振近期再度发布股票风险提示公告称，公司股票自2025年4月8日最低价至11月11日收盘期间，累 计涨幅达到1024.04%，已经15次触及股票交易异常波动。由于股票涨幅严重高于同期行业及上证指数 涨幅，但公司基本面未发生重大变化，因此提示存在投资风险。 但从2020年开始，由于市场影响，以及自身较高的成本，亚振家居在全国的门店数量开始削减，业绩也 持续下滑，在随后数年时间里，多次因业绩亏损濒临被退市警告的境地，其中不乏依赖政府补贴才扭亏 避免退市的情形，可以说是在"面临退市"和"保住上市"之间反复横跳。 就在发布退市警告同日，亚振家居发布公告表示，控股股东上海亚振投资有限公司正在筹划可能导致公 司控制权发生变更的重大事项。控股股东亚振投资与吴涛及其一致行动人范伟浩签署《股份转让协 议》，计划以4.48亿元价格，转让公司约30%的股权。 今年4月，在公司2024年归母扣非后净利润再度为负值之后，亚振家居被"披星戴帽"，证券代码被正式 变更为"ST亚振"。 但没想到的是，公司的转机也在此时 ...