证券研究报告 永艺股份 (603600 CH) 外销平稳增长，自主品牌快速发展 | 华泰研究 | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 26 日│中国内地 | 家居用品 | 目标价(人民币): | 15.52 | 公司公布上半年业绩：收入 21.89 亿元/同比+6.7%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元/ 同比+4.9%，对应归母净利率 6.1%/同比-0.1pct。其中二季度公司实现收入 11.78 亿元/同比-1.4%；归母净利润 0.75 亿元/同比-10.3%。上半年在贸易 政策不确定性提升、终端需求承压的背景下，公司外贸收入实现稳增，内贸 收入实现较快增长，凸显经营韧性；Q2 收入同比略有下滑，我们判断主要 是关税政策不确定性增加导致渠道商备货相对审慎所致。我们认为，外贸端 公司全球化产能布局领先，越南工厂已实现对美订单的全覆盖，罗马尼亚生 产基地正加快新品导入和产能爬坡，同时大力开拓非美客户、发力跨境电商 等，有望稳步扩大业务规模；内贸端加快自主品牌建设，内贸收入有望延续 亮眼表现，维持"增持" ...

Core Viewpoint - The office chair industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by urbanization, improved office conditions, and increased consumer health awareness, with projected demand and market size continuing to rise in the coming years [1][18]. Industry Overview - The main consumers of office chairs include enterprises, government agencies, and households, with enterprises and government agencies being the primary users [1][18]. - In 2024, the domestic demand for office chairs is expected to reach 92.28 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.96%, with a market size of 25.33 billion yuan, growing by 6.72% [1][18]. - By 2025, demand is projected to increase to 96.08 million units, with a market size of 27.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.11% and 6.65% respectively [1][18]. Industry Policy - The office chair industry is regulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with various industry associations providing self-regulation and guidance [5][6]. - Key policies supporting the industry focus on upgrading, environmental standards, foreign trade, and technological innovation [7][8]. Industry Barriers - Although the entry barriers are relatively low, increasing market competition, consumer demand upgrades, and stricter regulations are creating significant barriers in technology, talent, scale, qualifications, and distribution channels [10][23]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the office chair industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as wood, metal, plastic, and leather, while the midstream involves research and manufacturing, and the downstream focuses on sales through various channels [12][15]. Leading Companies - Henglin Home Furnishings Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer and exporter of office chairs, with a production volume of 9.98 million units in 2024 [14][26]. - Yongyi Furniture Co., Ltd. is recognized for its innovative ergonomic designs, producing 8.93 million office chairs in 2024, with significant revenue growth [17][26]. Future Development Trends - The office chair market is expected to grow due to economic recovery and increased emphasis on comfortable office environments, with trends towards health, environmental sustainability, diversity, and smart technology [27][29]. - The demand for ergonomic and health-focused office chairs is anticipated to become mainstream, driven by consumer awareness of health and comfort [29].

Core Viewpoint - Yongyi Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance with a closing price of 10.69 yuan, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous trading day, indicating investor confidence in the company's market position and future prospects [1] Company Overview - Yongyi Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of furniture products, including office chairs and massage chairs, and has established a significant presence in international markets [1] Stock Buyback - The company has completed the repurchase and cancellation of 780,000 shares, which was part of the third batch of equity under the 2021 partner shareholding plan that did not meet performance targets. Following this cancellation, the total share capital has decreased from 331,213,170 shares to 330,433,170 shares [1] Market Activity - On August 1, the net outflow of main funds was 2.2684 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 33.0087 million yuan over the past five trading days, suggesting some selling pressure in the stock [1]

Core Insights - The 618 e-commerce promotion has shifted from "intense competition" to "rational competition," focusing on value and regional development through the "platform + industrial belt" model [1][2] Group 1: E-commerce Growth in Zhejiang - Zhejiang's online retail reached 642.19 billion yuan from January to April, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, surpassing the national growth rate [1] - The establishment of quality inspection and logistics centers, such as the QIC warehouse in the East China International Jewelry City, has enhanced consumer trust and streamlined operations for local businesses [2] Group 2: Cross-border E-commerce Opportunities - The 618 event has become a new opportunity for Chinese goods to enter international markets, with significant demand for Zhejiang's beauty products in Southeast Asia [4] - Companies in Anji are leveraging cross-border e-commerce to expand their market reach, with green furniture products now sold in over 190 countries [4][5] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Collaboration - Zhejiang is promoting a "platform + industry" dual empowerment strategy, identifying 25 key consumer goods clusters and implementing tailored support measures [3] - E-commerce platforms are increasingly collaborating with various stakeholders, including logistics and financial institutions, to enhance efficiency and market access for local businesses [6][7]

Industry Overview - The office chair industry in China is a major global production base, experiencing rapid growth and forming significant industrial clusters, particularly in the Anji region of Zhejiang [1][4] - In 2024, China's office chair production capacity is projected to reach 205 million units, with an output of approximately 176.84 million units, an export volume of 84.65 million units, and an import volume of 0.0948 million units [1][4][10] - The domestic demand for office chairs in 2024 is estimated at 92.28 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.96% [6] Market Dynamics - The office chair market is expected to grow, driven by the increasing emphasis on comfortable office environments and the rise of digital workplaces [19] - The market size is projected to reach 25.33 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 6.72% [6] - By 2025, domestic demand is expected to rise to 96.08 million units, with a market size of 27.02 billion yuan, indicating continued growth [6] Trade and Export - China has become the world's largest exporter of office chairs, with exports to over 200 countries and regions, including the US, EU, and Japan [10] - In 2024, office chair exports are expected to increase to 84.65 million units, a rise of 10.94 million units compared to the previous year, with an export value of 28.15 billion yuan [10] - However, the ongoing US-China trade tensions may impact export volumes in 2025 [10] Competitive Landscape - Major companies in the office chair industry include Henglin Home Furnishings, Yongyi Furniture, and Zhendong (China) [12][15] - Henglin Home Furnishings is recognized as a leading manufacturer and exporter, with a production output of approximately 9.98 million units in 2024 [15] - Yongyi Furniture, the first listed company in the Chinese chair industry, reported a production increase to 8.93 million units in 2024, reflecting a significant rise from the previous year [17] Future Trends - The office chair industry is expected to evolve towards health-oriented, environmentally friendly, diverse, and intelligent designs, supported by national policies [19] - The market outlook remains positive, with anticipated growth driven by economic recovery and increased consumer awareness of health and comfort in office settings [19]

Core Insights - Instant retail is becoming a primary option in the order allocation game, shifting from a supplementary role to a front-line choice in user engagement [1] - The structure of major promotional events like 618 and Double 11 is undergoing significant changes, indicating that the evolution may just be beginning [1] User Mindset Shift - Users are increasingly prioritizing immediate delivery options over price, as demonstrated by a user choosing a product available for 30-minute delivery over a slightly cheaper option with a next-day delivery [2] - Instant retail is effectively capturing "on-the-spot orders" by leveraging local inventory and rapid delivery capabilities [2][8] Subsidy Model Changes - Traditional subsidy models are losing effectiveness, prompting platforms to seek new strategies to attract consumers during promotional events [3] - Platforms like Douyin are integrating subsidies with content marketing to lower user participation barriers, indicating a shift in promotional tactics [3] Local Fulfillment Strategies - Major platforms have accelerated their local fulfillment strategies ahead of the 618 event, with initiatives like Taobao's "Flash Purchase" and JD's "Instant Delivery" channel [8] - The early launch of these services reflects a strategic shift to position instant retail as a key driver of user engagement and order fulfillment [9] Limitations of Instant Retail - Instant retail is most effective for high-frequency, low-decision, standardized consumer goods, such as daily necessities, while struggling with complex SKU categories like fashion [10][11] - The model is not yet capable of efficiently covering high-cost items or those requiring complex logistics, such as furniture [10][11] Redefining Promotional Event Value - The timing of promotional strategies is shifting, with platforms launching subsidies and flash sales earlier, indicating a change in user purchasing behavior [15] - The significance of events like 618 is evolving from a single-day focus to a broader annual rhythm, integrating user engagement throughout the year [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Henglin Home Furnishing Co., Ltd., has demonstrated significant growth in revenue and profitability, driven by online sales and international market expansion, while also focusing on innovation and sustainability in its operations [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Henglin Home Furnishing was established in Anji, Zhejiang, and has grown to have over 10,000 employees and 13 production bases across five countries, with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion [1]. - The company has received numerous awards for its products, including the "German Red Dot Award" and "iF Design Award," and holds 1,630 authorized patents [1][2]. Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.029 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.59%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 281 million [2][4]. - The gross profit margin increased by 33.03% year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased slightly to 2.55% [2][4]. - The company’s online sales grew significantly, contributing to a 196.5% increase in e-commerce revenue [4]. Product and Market Strategy - The company focuses on a diverse range of products, including office furniture, soft furniture, and new materials, with a strong emphasis on smart, eco-friendly, and customized solutions [1][2]. - The global market for soft furniture is projected to reach $80 billion, with Asia-Pacific and North America accounting for nearly 70% of the market [1]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities that remained stable, with a slight increase in debt ratio due to leasing liabilities impacting the asset-liability ratio [2][4]. - The total assets turnover ratio improved to 1.08, reflecting better asset utilization [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness through a dual-track strategy of "manufacturing overseas and brand expansion," focusing on innovation and differentiation [4][5]. - The "Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement" action plan is designed to optimize operations and increase shareholder returns [5]. Awards and Recognition - Henglin Home Furnishing has been recognized as a national-level green factory and has received multiple accolades for its corporate governance and cultural initiatives [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - Jingyi Co., Ltd. has achieved remarkable business results in the competitive office chair design market by adhering to the philosophy of "linking globally popular designs and leading design trends" and focusing on original design and product development [1]. Group 1: Design and Innovation - The company emphasizes collaboration with outstanding domestic and international design teams, fostering an open design culture that injects new creative inspiration and enhances product diversity and internationalization [3]. - Jingyi Co., Ltd. integrates consumer needs into every design phase through market research and user feedback, striving to combine practicality and aesthetics in each product [3]. - The product line includes various office chairs catering to different customer needs, with successful sales in over 120 countries and regions, showcasing the company's design strength and brand influence on the international stage [3]. Group 2: Quality and Production Management - The company continuously pursues user satisfaction, with multiple products winning prestigious international design awards, affirming its high-quality status in the industry [5]. - Jingyi Co., Ltd. has implemented advanced manufacturing technologies and equipment in its production process, ensuring strict quality standards while optimizing production efficiency and reducing costs [5]. - The company adheres to environmental responsibility by minimizing environmental impact during material selection and production processes [5]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Customer Service - The company actively monitors market changes and adjusts strategies to meet evolving consumer demands, conducting regular market analysis to understand industry dynamics [5]. - Jingyi Co., Ltd. enhances brand exposure and reputation through various channels, effectively increasing brand influence by combining online and offline marketing strategies [5]. - A comprehensive after-sales service system is established to prioritize customer experience, with regular satisfaction surveys to gather feedback for continuous improvement [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, Jingyi Co., Ltd. plans to increase R&D investment to launch more innovative products that meet diverse consumer needs and explore new market opportunities, particularly in emerging markets [7]. - The company aims to maintain its leadership in the office chair design industry by continuing to innovate and strive for higher goals, reinforcing its commitment to linking globally popular designs and leading design trends [7].

Group 1: R&D and Innovation - The company emphasizes R&D investment in forward-looking technologies such as AI, automotive massage chairs, and medical rehabilitation robots, adjusting resource allocation based on technology maturity and market pace [2] - In 2024, the company launched the industry's first 5D flagship core, achieving advancements in core hardware and breakthroughs in AI algorithms and health management systems [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Management - The company maintains a stable gross profit margin while focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, despite facing rigid expenditure in brand building and R&D [3] - The management is committed to enhancing operational quality and international production layout to improve market competitiveness and resilience [3] Group 3: Market Position and Brand Development - The company has established multiple brands, including OGAWA and ihoco, which rank among the top three in their respective markets across Asia, North America, and Europe [3] - The company has maintained its industry leadership for 19 consecutive years, with products distributed in over 80 countries and regions [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Manufacturing, specifically focusing on export-oriented companies affected by tariffs - **Companies**: 永艺股份 (Yongyi Co.), 浩洋股份 (Haoyang Co.) Key Points and Arguments Tariff Impact on Export Companies - The U.S. has imposed a 30% tariff on Chinese goods, which includes a 20% increase and an additional 10% tariff. China has also imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. goods. This has short-term operational impacts on export companies, but costs can be shared with downstream customers or passed on to end consumers. [3][4] - After tariffs return to a reasonable level, domestic shipping schedules are expected to normalize, with a recovery in orders anticipated in Q2. However, downstream companies are cautious about inventory levels due to previous high stock phases. [1][4] Company-Specific Insights - **永艺股份 (Yongyi Co.)**: - Holds an irreplaceable position in the office chair segment, with a strong supply chain that creates customer barriers. Recent orders are optimistic, with the Vietnam factory ramping up shipments to take advantage of tariff windows. Profit margins remain largely unaffected. [1][8] - The 2025 profit forecast is approximately 380 million yuan, with a current valuation of 10 times earnings, indicating a high cost-performance ratio within the export chain. The company is seen as a resilient choice with a dividend yield exceeding 4%. [10] - **浩洋股份 (Haoyang Co.)**: - Demonstrates cost efficiency and product innovation in stage lighting and performance equipment manufacturing. The company is actively developing new products, such as laser light sources, which are expected to drive long-term growth. [1][11] - The 2025 profit forecast is slightly above 300 million yuan, with a current valuation of about 14 times earnings, which is considered low compared to historical levels. The sentiment in U.S. business is improving, which is a positive factor for overall export sentiment. [13][14] Long-term Outlook and Valuation - Export companies are experiencing a valuation drop due to tariff pressures, but those with strong core advantages and a high proportion of overseas factories, like Yongyi and Haoyang, are less affected. Their valuations are now aligned with growth potential, making them suitable for long-term investment. [5][12] - The long-term growth drivers for Haoyang are expected to shift more towards proprietary brands and laser products rather than OEM business, which will enhance profitability and optimize product structure. [12] Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment regarding orders is improving as the actual burden of tariffs on end consumers is expected to be minimal. This could lead to a further recovery in order expectations in the short term. [9] - The selection of export chain companies should prioritize those with high growth potential, especially in the context of changing tariff environments. [15]