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刘煜辉,最新发声!“珍惜中国核心资产倒车接人的重要机会”
券商中国· 2025-04-20 23:22
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade tensions between China and the U.S., highlighting China's strengths and potential investment opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The trade war escalated rapidly, reaching a peak within ten days, which was unexpected for the U.S. administration [2][3] - China's swift response is attributed to its strong position in three areas: the stability of RMB assets, dominance in global supply chains, and technological advancements [2][11] Group 2: U.S. Economic Vulnerabilities - The trade conflict has led to significant volatility in global capital markets, impacting the U.S. economy's core—dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [7][19] - The traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is being challenged, as global investors are increasingly selling off dollar-denominated assets [7][19] Group 3: China's Supply Chain Strength - China currently holds a 35% share of the global supply chain, projected to rise to 45% by 2030, indicating its dominant position [8][12] - The imbalance in global trade dynamics has been exacerbated by the strengthening of China's supply chain, which contrasts with the declining influence of the dollar [8][12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in Chinese core assets during periods of heightened market volatility [9][21] - Gold is highlighted as a strong investment asset, with the current market conditions presenting a favorable buying opportunity [20][21] Group 5: Structural Economic Insights - The majority of U.S. consumer spending is on services, which are less connected to global trade, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less severe than anticipated [15][16] - The actual goods-related economy that interacts with global trade is approximately $6.2 trillion, with a significant portion controlled by U.S. multinational corporations [16][18] Group 6: Future Market Directions - The article suggests that strong stocks have already recovered from initial market reactions, and future investment opportunities may lie in sectors related to supply chain security and data communication [22]