坚持关注刘博动态的朋友想必都深有体会，刘博的高维宏观思维是用极简的视角去看待这纷繁复杂的二维、三维世界，不论是国际政治还是金融市场，都 能被刘博简洁的逻辑线串起，看似简单易懂但蕴含大道，所以正确率极高，这也正是刘博常常提及的"对外袪魅，对因破执"——直击核心的高维宏观之 道。回溯2024-2025年便会发现刘博在经济与市场领域的预判几乎全盘应验，正如一部精准运行的预言机器，为我们指明方向…… 刘煜辉系上海首席经济学家金融发展中心副主任、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 "下杀200点"已经到了，优质股的击球点到了 在股市领域，刘博的预判同样精准。去年9月24日，刘博提出东大的"慢牛长牛科技能量结构牛"，坚信中国股市将迎来以科技为驱动的长期上涨行情，为 投资者指明方向。今年4月7日，在关税影响背景下，股市疲软，刘博唯一提出中国股市"倒车接人"的时间窗口，随后指数大涨近25%，并在今年9月底， 刘博第一个提出四季度大科技调整，提示市场风险；11月3日，刘博从加密货币BTC、以太坊的弱势表现中，预警美股AI科技股的高波释放；而现在，刘 博曾讲的"下杀200点"已经到了，优质股的击球点到了。这些预判完美的"极视感"正印证了刘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $3600 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in the global economic landscape, driven by factors such as declining interest rates, a weakening dollar, and increasing geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - In 2024, gold prices have shown remarkable performance, increasing by 27.2% in USD and 35.6% in EUR, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 40% as of September 9 [1][2]. - The current price of gold at $3600 per ounce may be just the beginning of a "super cycle," with predictions suggesting it could reach $4800 or even $8900 per ounce by the end of the decade [2]. Group 2: Driving Forces Behind Gold's Rise - The dual role of gold as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge is increasingly recognized, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually, reaching a record 1086 tons in 2024 [3][4]. - The global debt crisis is affecting major economies, with the U.S. government interest payments surpassing military spending for the first time, indicating a potential decline in economic stability [5]. - Persistent inflation remains a concern, with U.S. core CPI at 3.2% and PCE at 2.8%, driving investors towards gold as a hedge against rising prices [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The changing geopolitical landscape, characterized by rising tensions and trade conflicts, has made gold's neutral status more valuable, as countries diversify their reserves away from traditional fiat currencies [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy is becoming less effective, prompting a shift towards a new asset allocation model that emphasizes gold as a core component [8][9]. - A proposed new allocation includes 45% in stocks, 15% in bonds, 15% in safe-haven gold, and 10% in performance-oriented gold assets, which has shown higher returns compared to traditional models [10]. - The weakening dollar is expected to further boost gold prices, with historical data indicating that a 10% drop in the dollar index correlates with a 15% rise in gold [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, highlighting a potential long-term bull market driven by various economic and geopolitical factors, suggesting that gold is becoming a core asset in investment portfolios [2][3][4]. Gold Market Performance - In 2024, gold prices increased by 27.2% in USD and 35.6% in EUR, with spot gold rising from $2657 to over $3600 per ounce, marking a nearly 40% increase within the year [3]. - The prediction for gold prices by the end of the decade is $4800 per ounce under baseline scenarios, potentially reaching $8900 per ounce in high inflation scenarios [4]. Economic Drivers - The article identifies three main drivers for gold's strong performance: debt crises, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments exceeding military spending, indicating a critical financial situation [8]. - Inflation remains stubbornly high, with U.S. core CPI at 3.2% and Eurozone core HICP at 2.7%, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [10]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally have purchased over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with 2024 seeing a record 1086 tons bought, indicating a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [5]. - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has increased from approximately 9% in 2016 to 18.2% in 2024, reflecting a trend of "re-monetization" of gold [5]. Investment Strategy - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy is becoming less effective, prompting a shift towards a new asset allocation model that includes a significant portion of gold [13][14]. - A proposed new allocation model suggests 45% in stocks, 15% in bonds, 15% in safe-haven gold, and 10% in performance gold (silver and mining stocks) [16]. Market Dynamics - The article notes a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold, with a weakening dollar expected to further boost gold prices [18]. - The dollar's share in global reserves has decreased from 70% to 58%, indicating a potential decline in its dominance and enhancing gold's appeal as a stable asset [18]. Practical Guidance - Investors are encouraged to consider practical strategies for gold investment, including core allocations in physical gold and gold ETFs, as well as exploring opportunities in silver and mining stocks [20].

Core Viewpoint - The current decade is entering the third "golden decade" for gold, with potential price appreciation to $6,800 by 2030, based on historical patterns since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 [1][2][3]. Historical Analysis - Historical analysis indicates that despite differences, structural similarities dominate the three major bull markets in gold: the 1970s, 2000s, and the current decade [2][3]. - In the past 18 months, gold has shown remarkable performance, with a 28.9% increase in USD terms in 2024, and a cumulative increase of 61.9% by mid-2025 [2][4]. Price Projections - If the current cycle follows historical patterns, gold prices could rise from $2,624 at the end of 2024 to approximately $6,800 by the end of this decade [4][6]. - Historical data shows that past bull markets typically end with a price surge, often doubling within about nine months [4]. Economic Context - Gold has demonstrated its safe-haven properties during inflation, economic turmoil, and crises of confidence over the past two decades [6]. - Factors that drove gold prices up in the 1970s and 2000s, such as negative real interest rates and geopolitical tensions, are re-emerging in the current decade [6][7]. Performance of Related Assets - Silver, mining stocks, and commodities are expected to have catch-up potential, with silver historically showing explosive growth in the latter half of bull markets [8][9]. - Mining stocks have exhibited high volatility and are seen as leveraged plays on gold prices, with significant performance recovery noted in the latter half of the current decade [9][10]. New Investment Strategies - A new 60/40 investment portfolio, reconfigured to include 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% safe gold, 10% performance gold (silver and mining stocks), 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin, has shown superior performance compared to traditional models [11][12]. - This modernized portfolio structure has demonstrated greater stability and resilience during market volatility, supporting the argument for a robust investment framework focused on inflation-resistant assets [12].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is entering its third "golden decade," with a potential price increase to $6,800 by 2030, based on historical patterns observed since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Price Predictions - Gold has experienced three major bull markets since 1971, with significant price increases of 162% in the late 1970s and 150% in the late 2000s [2][5]. - If the current cycle follows historical trends, gold prices could rise from $2,624 at the end of 2024 to approximately $6,800 by the end of the decade [2][5]. Group 2: Recent Performance - Over the past 18 months, gold has shown remarkable performance, with a 28.9% increase in USD, 35.6% in EUR, and 37.1% in CHF in 2024 [1]. - By mid-2025, cumulative gains are projected to reach 61.9% (USD), 49.8% (EUR), and 50.4% (CHF), significantly outperforming major stock indices [1]. Group 3: Asset Class Comparisons - Silver, traditionally a laggard, has the potential for explosive growth, with historical annual returns exceeding 44% in the late 1970s [6]. - Mining stocks are viewed as high-volatility leveraged variants of gold, with significant gains in the latter half of the 2020s, showing a near 80% annualized increase [6][7]. - Commodities exhibit strong cyclical characteristics, with notable performance in the 1970s driven by oil price shocks and inflation [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A new 60/40 investment portfolio, reconfigured to include 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% safe gold, 10% performance gold (silver and mining stocks), 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin, has shown superior performance compared to traditional models [8][10]. - This modern portfolio structure is argued to provide better stability and return potential, particularly in volatile market conditions [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising trend of gold investment among young people, particularly the post-90s and Gen Z demographics, who are increasingly viewing gold as a viable investment option rather than a traditional commodity [2][5]. - In the past year, gold prices have surged significantly, doubling from around 400 RMB/g to nearly 1000 RMB/g at peak times, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - The concentration of gold trading activity occurs during evening hours (8 PM to 11 PM), aligning with the leisure time of young investors, showcasing a trend towards "fragmented financial management" [2]. Group 2 - The global economic uncertainty has reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, with spot gold prices rising by 25% in the first half of the year, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation pressures [3]. - Industry experts believe that the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid, with strategic allocation value highlighted by the China Gold Association [3]. - The long-term annualized return of gold is approximately 8%, comparable to global nominal GDP growth, with expectations for an upward shift in return rates due to accelerated central bank purchases [4]. Group 3 - JD Finance has positioned gold investment as a core competitive advantage, offering a comprehensive platform that includes physical gold, accumulation gold, gold ETFs, and gold recycling services [5]. - The platform aims to enhance investor education, improve product offerings, and refine professional service systems to support gold investment, particularly targeting the younger demographic [6]. - The growing interest in gold among young investors reflects a broader trend of seeking asset preservation strategies in uncertain economic times, with digital natives redefining the meaning of investment stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current global order is undergoing a significant restructuring, with China aiming to increase its financial weight and influence to match its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities, particularly through the rise of the renminbi and renminbi-denominated assets [1][15][37]. Group 1: Global Order and Economic Dynamics - The ongoing trade and tariff conflicts between the US and China represent a structural confrontation over the future global order, rather than mere disputes over tariffs [6][14]. - China's manufacturing dominance is increasingly misaligned with the declining financial hegemony of the US dollar, which is a root cause of current tensions [14][11]. - By 2030, China's manufacturing output is projected to account for 45% of global manufacturing, highlighting the growing disparity between China's industrial strength and the US's financial structure [10][9]. Group 2: Financial Mechanisms and Trade Relationships - The traditional dollar-based financial system is losing its effectiveness, as evidenced by the breakdown of the dollar's closed-loop mechanism in international trade, particularly in transactions between China and countries like Saudi Arabia [12][13]. - The shift towards bilateral and multilateral trade mechanisms is increasing, further weakening the dollar's dominance in global trade [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for China - China must adopt a strategy of greater openness, balance, and market orientation to enhance its economic resilience and global standing [30][39]. - The focus should be on improving domestic consumption and ensuring that economic growth benefits a broader segment of the population, thereby driving internal circulation [41][40]. - Establishing a unified market and eliminating discrimination against the private sector are essential steps for fostering a more competitive economic environment [42]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market dynamics present opportunities for investors to capitalize on China's core assets, particularly in the context of ongoing strategic competition with the US [63][64]. - The newly established CSI A500 index is seen as a representation of China's core assets, providing a high potential return for long-term investments [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade tensions between China and the U.S., highlighting China's strengths and potential investment opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The trade war escalated rapidly, reaching a peak within ten days, which was unexpected for the U.S. administration [2][3] - China's swift response is attributed to its strong position in three areas: the stability of RMB assets, dominance in global supply chains, and technological advancements [2][11] Group 2: U.S. Economic Vulnerabilities - The trade conflict has led to significant volatility in global capital markets, impacting the U.S. economy's core—dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [7][19] - The traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is being challenged, as global investors are increasingly selling off dollar-denominated assets [7][19] Group 3: China's Supply Chain Strength - China currently holds a 35% share of the global supply chain, projected to rise to 45% by 2030, indicating its dominant position [8][12] - The imbalance in global trade dynamics has been exacerbated by the strengthening of China's supply chain, which contrasts with the declining influence of the dollar [8][12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in Chinese core assets during periods of heightened market volatility [9][21] - Gold is highlighted as a strong investment asset, with the current market conditions presenting a favorable buying opportunity [20][21] Group 5: Structural Economic Insights - The majority of U.S. consumer spending is on services, which are less connected to global trade, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less severe than anticipated [15][16] - The actual goods-related economy that interacts with global trade is approximately $6.2 trillion, with a significant portion controlled by U.S. multinational corporations [16][18] Group 6: Future Market Directions - The article suggests that strong stocks have already recovered from initial market reactions, and future investment opportunities may lie in sectors related to supply chain security and data communication [22]