如果你还以为美国国债是"绝对安全"的铁饭碗，那2025这一出金融大戏，真是让人大跌眼镜。 美国国债总额冲到38.5万亿美元，债务危机像脱缰的野马，全球市场一片狼藉。 各国央行、机构投资者纷纷抛售美债，黄金价格飞奔到4500美元，白银也跟着水涨船高。 美债信用体系接近崩溃，美元国际地位前所未有地被撼动。 中国抓住时机，果断减持美债，疯狂买入黄金，成了这场金融风暴中的最大赢家。 和2008年救市手法对比鲜明，历史虽不会重演，却总带着熟悉的味道。 我的看法是，美元信用危机并非突如其来，而是金融危机后埋下的必然结果。 2011年欧债危机时，欧洲央行就曾果断抛售美债，转而增持黄金。 美国一边苦撑财政，一边利息开支超军费，债务雪球越滚越大。 日本、欧洲、加拿大、印度这些"老盟友"也各怀鬼胎，全球资金一窝蜂流入黄金避险，美元霸权摇摇欲坠。 这一切的根源，其实就是全球对美元信用的彻底失望，黄金成了最后的"救命稻草"。 回头看2008年金融危机，美国靠大放水、量化宽松一度稳住阵脚，表面风平浪静，实则把债务炸弹踢给了未来。 那几年，全球资本像打了鸡血，狂买美债和美元资产。 但美国经济复苏乏力，债务高筑，信心逐年流失。 2025年 ...

行业点评 市场表现截至 2025.12.31 -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 有色金属指数 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，国新证券整理 国际金价：12 月 30 日伦敦金现跌至 4514 美元/盎司，较 12 月 24 日 历史高点 4526 美元小幅回落，但全年累计涨幅仍达 65%-70%，创 1979 年以来最大年度涨幅。 核心驱动因素分析：多空力量再平衡 短期技术性回调原因： 地缘风险缓和：特朗普与泽连斯基会面引发俄乌停火预期，削弱避险 需求。 市场研究部 2025 年 12 月 31 日 获利了结压力：全年大涨后部分资金选择年末兑现收益，叠加交易所 保证金上调（如 COMEX）引发杠杆多头平仓。 货币政策内部分歧：点阵图显示 2026 年仅降息 1 次（25BP），但市场 押注 2-3 次（50-75BP），政策预期差成波动源头。 白银短期暴跌的牵连：白银工业属性强，但同样是贵金属。近期白银 高波动会传染波动。 部分海外基金再平衡或税收优惠考虑的交易性风险担忧。贵金属暴涨， ...

来源：大国知识JU " 大难临头各自飞，盟友被迫来垫背；首富说了大实话，神仙难救美债危 " 。 12月20日，华尔街的警报声响彻云霄。据美国财政部最新数据，中国再次出手，抛售了118亿美元美债。 这一刀下去，中国的持仓规模直接降到了6887亿美元，创下了2008年以来的最低点。但这不仅仅是一次减持，这是一发"信号弹"。 紧随其后，加拿大、卢森堡、开曼群岛纷纷跟进抛售。哪怕美联储紧急宣布每月回购400亿美元来"护盘"，也掩盖不住空气中弥漫的恐慌味道。 更有意思的是，就在特朗普还在做着靠"AI+机器人"让美国再次伟大的美梦时，他的核心盟友马斯克却直接泼了一盆冷水："别做梦了，AI救不了美国， 美债这个雷，谁碰谁死。" 中国为什么卖？因为看透了。 现在的美国，债务规模已经突破了天际，利息支出超过了军费。中国减持到6887亿，是一种"战略撤退"。我们在安全上岸，把风险留给美国自己。 美联储慌不慌？慌得要死。12月12日起恢复每月400亿美元的购债，这说明什么？说明市场上没人买了！ 美联储只能自己印钱买自己的国债，这就是典型的"庞氏骗局"末期症状——左手倒右手，直到泡沫炸裂。 逼出4个"接盘侠"，日本是最大的"血包"。 ...

美国财政部最近公开了一组数据，显示中国仍在按照常规节奏打击美国。那么中国到底做了些什么？美国又将如何应对呢？根据美国财政部的最新数据显 示，今年10月，外国投资者持有的美国国债再次出现下降。虽然持有美债最多的两个国家——日本和英国，分别增持了107亿美元和132亿美元，但中国却减 少了118亿美元。而美国的邻国加拿大，减持的金额更是高达567亿美元。总体来看，四国中，日本和英国都在增持美债，加拿大今年也有大幅增持和减持的 波动，然而最值得注意的还是中国。 经过这轮减持后，中国手中的美债已降至6887亿美元，创下了自2008年以来的最低水平。这一减持额意味着中国17年来对美国经济的最大压力，为什么这么 说呢？其实，中国并非偶尔减持美债，近年来，中国几乎一直在稳定、持续地减少美债的持有量。虽然美国财政部偶尔会报告显示中国曾增持了一些美债， 尤其是短期美债，但这些情况是少数。通常，中国是在减持美债的同时，适度增持短期美债，尤其是在美债市场回报率较高时，但整体增持的额度并未超过 减持量。因此，严格来说，中国一直在坚持减持美债的策略。 那么，中国持续减持美债到底意味着什么？对于美国来说，这等于是中国正在以常态化的方式打 ...

Group 1 - China has sold $11.8 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, reducing its holdings to $688.7 billion, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis [1][3] - Canada has also significantly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $56.7 billion, reflecting a dramatic shift in its investment strategy [1][3] - The actions of both China and Canada indicate a strategic retreat from U.S. debt, driven by concerns over the stability of the U.S. economy and its financial practices [3][7] Group 2 - Japan and the UK have taken the opposite approach, with Japan increasing its holdings by $10.7 billion and the UK by $13.2 billion, indicating a different strategy in response to geopolitical dynamics [4] - The divergence in strategies among countries highlights that U.S. Treasury bonds are not just investment vehicles but also tools in international political negotiations [4] Group 3 - Trump's push for a new Federal Reserve chair who supports significant interest rate cuts reflects concerns over the U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $37 trillion [6][7] - The U.S. government's debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 126%, with projected deficits indicating a growing fiscal challenge [7] - The shift in global reserve assets shows a decline in the dollar's dominance, with the percentage of U.S. dollar reserves falling from 72% in 2000 to 57% in recent years, while gold's share has increased to 20% [7][9] Group 4 - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings is part of a broader strategy to enhance its financial autonomy, as evidenced by a significant increase in gold reserves and the expansion of its digital currency initiatives [9] - The ongoing adjustments in foreign exchange reserves and asset allocations reflect a global shift in financial strategies, with countries reassessing their reliance on U.S. assets [9]

美债总额1995年是不到5万亿美元，2025年38万亿，差不多是10年翻倍的节奏。但看曲线其实是增速越 来越快，2008年破10万亿，第一次翻倍用了13年；2018年破20万亿，第二次翻倍是10年；2026年会破40 万亿，8年翻倍。 现在美债预期出问题，已经是公开的了，美国政府不敢提，但金融交易每天都在干。美联储昨宣布，紧 缩结束，马上就转向每月买400亿美债。这个通胀率和资产负债情况，本来不应该这么着急的。但是没 办法了，必须得买了，不然美债要崩。 原因是日本不买美债了。日本以前和中国是美债大买主，中国已经退场，到期不续，这压力就给到了别 的买主。现在日本自己债市出大问题，先给美国表演下会如何"僵尸化"，但也有立刻的影响。日本没余 钱买美债了，自己一堆问题，还要加息稳住局面，机构需要卖出美债维持流动性。 日本不买了，如果美联储不下场，那国债利率上升会让市场惊到。美联储2024年9月以来6次降息，美国 10-30年期国债市场利率反而上升，就是市场压力。因此，美联储每月买400亿美债，一年就是5000亿美 元，这数量很大了，能压低市场利率。 但是谁也不是傻子，会发现美国金融系统问题越滚越大。说不定还有别的买主 ...

Group 1 - The global market has been unstable since October last year, with the ten-year Treasury yield rising from 3.8% to 4.1% despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The total federal debt has exceeded $35 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [1] - Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) announced a reduction in long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and shifted investments to UK and Australian bonds, reflecting a broader trend among Wall Street firms [3] Group 2 - The U.S. federal deficit is projected to grow significantly, reaching $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year 2024, increasing the risk associated with long-term bonds [3] - In November, a $20 billion auction of 20-year bonds saw a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.46, below the average of 2.6, indicating weak demand [5] - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries have decreased, with China reducing its holdings to $800 billion and Japan and the EU also slowing their purchases [5] Group 3 - The Nasdaq index is heavily reliant on companies like Google and Tesla, while the Dow Jones has seen a decline of 3.2% over seven consecutive days [7] - The correlation between economic growth and debt is strong, with a projected GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 largely dependent on federal spending [7] - Following PIMCO's reduction in holdings, bond volatility (VIX) increased by 15%, with investors shifting towards gold and euro-denominated bonds [7] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to add $1.6 trillion in new debt in 2024, with 40% of this being absorbed by domestic institutions [9] - The Fed's meeting in December is anticipated to result in at least a 25 basis point rate cut to alleviate borrowing costs [9] - Current economic indicators show an employment rate of 4.2% and a core PCE inflation rate of 2.8%, exceeding the 2% target [9] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve adjusted the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third rate cut of the year [11] - There was dissent from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who expressed concerns about potential inflation rebound [11] - The Fed also modified its balance sheet policy, reducing the monthly limit on Treasury redemptions starting in April 2025 [11] Group 6 - The yield on 20-year bonds reached 5.047% in November, with a bid-to-cover ratio hitting a new low for the month [13] - After the Fed's decision, the ten-year yield dropped to 4.06%, stabilizing the auction process [13] - The exchange rate dynamics have influenced inflation, with the Chinese yuan depreciating by 15% in 2023, affecting U.S. import costs [13] Group 7 - The U.S. debt situation has become increasingly problematic since Trump's presidency, with the debt reaching $36.22 trillion at the time of his inauguration [15] - The demand for 20-year bonds remains low, with primary dealers holding 25% of the shares and foreign investors at 69% [15] - To stabilize the market, Trump initiated economic discussions with China, although there is currently no annual review agreement in place [15]

Group 1 - The core discussion points of the recent US-China and US-Japan calls revolve around three main issues: US-China relations, the Taiwan issue, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2][3] - The statement regarding Taiwan's return to China being an important part of the post-war international order is a notable shift in rhetoric, indicating a timeline for this issue [2][3][6] - The historical context of the Cairo Declaration, which states that territories stolen by Japan from China should be returned, reinforces China's position on Taiwan [7][10][11] Group 2 - The US's response to Japan's aggressive stance on Taiwan is being closely monitored, with Trump's acknowledgment of the importance of the Taiwan issue to China signaling a cautious approach [12][14][20] - The duration of the calls indicates a disparity in engagement, with the US-China call lasting about one hour compared to only 25 minutes for the US-Japan call, suggesting less depth in the latter discussion [25][26][30] - The US's recent arms sale to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, aims to enhance Japan's capabilities against current and future threats, indicating a strategic alignment against perceived challenges [48][49][51] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is a priority for the US, with Trump seeking a resolution to focus on long-term challenges, particularly regarding China [33][41][43] - The proposed 28-point plan for resolving the conflict suggests a willingness to compromise, potentially at the expense of Ukraine's interests, highlighting the complexities of international diplomacy [36][44] - The current international climate is described as unstable, with market volatility expected as a result of these geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for investors to remain cautious [58][60]

特朗普想稳住局面，免得中期选举栽跟头，就把目光转向中国手里那7590亿美元美债，希望通过让步换中方别抛售，甚至多买点。 特朗普团队的算盘打得挺响。停摆刚开始没多久，10月中旬，美国就放风要邀中国来访，重启谈判。美方提出降低部分中国商品关税，从原来的高位降到 47%，换中国暂停稀土出口限制，还包括大豆进口啥的。 表面看，这是贸易休战一年，但骨子里，美国是想稳住金融市场。中国减持美债的势头从2024年底就没停，12月持仓从7686亿降到7590亿，2025年头几个月 继续往下走，到2月还剩7843亿，但9月已经滑到7005亿。 美国财政压力山大，特朗普上台后就碰上棘手事。2025年头几个月，国会两党为预算案吵翻天，共和党保守派死咬着要砍开支，民主党那边护着福利资金不 放。 结果，10月1日零点一到，联邦政府部分机构就关门了，这次停摆拖了43天，创下历史最长纪录。员工没工资，公园博物馆大门紧锁，经济数据发不出来， 股市晃荡不定。 特朗普团队这时候抛出个信号，主动找中国谈经贸，背景就是美国国债堆到38万亿美元，利息支出占联邦预算近两成。美联储前几年加息，借钱成本蹭蹭上 涨，政府想再发债都费劲。 中国这边，手里美债是张 ...

Core Insights - Cambodia is preparing to store its gold reserves in China, a move that has garnered significant attention, reflecting a broader trend among Southeast Asian countries considering similar actions due to concerns over the stability of the US dollar and debt crisis [1][6] - The rising gold prices, with domestic jewelry gold reaching 1200 yuan per gram, have led to predictions that international gold prices could exceed $10,000 per ounce in the coming years if US policies continue to be perceived as unreasonable [1] - Central banks globally are increasingly purchasing gold as a hedge against potential collapse of the dollar and US debt, with many countries fearing a bubble in these assets [1][2] Group 1 - Many central banks are reassessing where to store their gold, historically favoring the US for its perceived safety and ease of transactions, but growing distrust in US financial stability is prompting a shift [2][4] - The historical context of gold and dollar decoupling, driven by concerns over US gold reserves, highlights the increasing skepticism towards storing gold in the US [2] - Countries like Germany have already begun repatriating their gold from the US, reflecting a trend of nations prioritizing the security of their reserves [2] Group 2 - Smaller nations, such as Cambodia, are considering China as a secure alternative for gold storage, viewing it as a reliable partner for both safety and convenience in transactions [6] - The trend of moving gold reserves to China is expected to grow, as more Southeast Asian countries recognize the benefits of this shift [6] - The increasing acceptance of the renminbi as a potential replacement for the dollar's dominance is gaining traction, particularly under the influence of US policies [8]