最后一根稻草，来了？美债突破5%,万亿美债崩盘在即,美元危机将近 真可谓是善玩刀剑者必然死于刀剑之下。原本想通过关税战来拯救美国的债务危机，结果没想到，关税战不仅没有拯救美国的债务危机，反而成为了美国 债务危机的催命符。 而就在贝森特不断喊话全球各国要逐渐和美国达成协议的时候，没想到，这边美国的债务危机却逐渐加重，30年期的美债收益率更是突破5%，而最为揪 心的竟然是作为最大债主的日本又开始动手了。日本私人投资者更是直接抛售200亿美元左右的美债，日本要成为美国最后一根稻草吗？ 最后一根稻草，来了？ 只有想不到，没有做不到，对于美国来说，曾经的日本是美国最大的债主，为美国的经济发展贡献了巨大力量，而当下日本反而却成为了美国最大的威胁 之一。 根据相关的媒体报道，就在美国期望和日本等国家达成协议的时候，没想到，日本却反向操作，甚至在短短时间内，日本投资者直接大举抛售了200亿美 元左右的美债，这对于美国来说无异于雪上加霜。 而且2025年4月份，美债收益率更是直接飙升至5%，30年期国债收益率创下历史新高，这就意味着，美债不仅没人买了，现在卖的人更多了。 这一波收益率的飞涨直接冲击了美国的融资成本，白宫在面临财 ...

昨晚，又有劲爆消息传出。 关于9月份的降息，美联储这边终于有了最新表态！ 在周五当晚的 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔在发言中表示： 不断"变化"的经济风险让美联储有了更充分的降息理由 美联储主席的这一番声明，其实就是 直接暗示下个月美联储将会立刻降息25个基点。 他的发言结束之后，全球市场动荡。 市场立刻增加了对美联储下个月降息的押注，美联储9月份降息的可能性将接近90%。 全球资产，也因为鲍威尔这个可能降息的表态出现异动。 前两天还在下跌的 美股突然飙升 。 一个小时内，道琼斯指数涨1.98%，标普500指数涨1.64%，纳斯达克综合指数涨1.97%。 现货 黄金 价格，也在短短半小时内突然暴涨了40美元。 此外， 加密货币 也集体拉升。 比特币 涨到了11.64万美元，一天涨幅超过3%； 以太坊 涨至4614美元，一天涨幅接近8%。 全球资产之所以对鲍威尔的表态的反应这么激烈，主要是因为在今天的表态之前， 市场对美联储9月份降息的态度越来越悲观 。 在这个月月初的时候，市场对下个月降息的预估还是乐观的，市场预测的降息概率一度达到90%以上。 因为当时美国公布的非农就业数据太过糟糕，市场认为美 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 降息预期高涨 金银高位震荡 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 逻辑分析 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 沪金12-6价差 沪银12-6价差 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1月2日 3月1日 4月30日 7月1日 8月29日 11月3日 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1月2日 2月22日 4月14日 6月7日 7月28日 9月17日11月14日 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 数据来源：w ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, marking a historical high and raising concerns about the country's fiscal health, with debt exceeding 120% of GDP and an annual budget deficit of $2 trillion, the highest since World War II [1][3] - The rapid increase in debt is attributed to policies during Trump's first term aimed at stimulating the economy, which led to a significant rise in borrowing, compounded by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic [3][5] - Buffett has adjusted his investment strategy in response to the economic volatility, reducing his stake in Apple by over $40 billion while increasing his holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, becoming the largest non-government holder of U.S. debt [5][7] Group 2 - The high level of U.S. debt poses three long-term negative impacts on the economy: increased interest burdens, diminished investor confidence leading to potential financial instability, and restricted monetary policy flexibility exacerbating inflation issues [5][7] - Trump's metaphor of losing a "world war" if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency serves to highlight the severity of the economic downturn and aims to redirect public attention from policy failures [7]

而在疯狂增长的美债中，少不了特朗普"大而美"法案的推波助澜。该法案在今年5月以微弱优势通过， 计划延长特朗普第一任期内对企业和个人的减税措施，并为小费、汽车贷款等提供新的税收减免。同时 增加国防开支、为打击非法移民提供资金，并削减了绿色能源激励政策。 马斯克预言成真，美国迎来一个首次，贝森特急切求见，中国反而不急了。今天我们来聊聊美国遇到的 危机。 日前，美国国债总额首次突破37万亿美元，这是一个前所未有的高峰。美财政部发布的数据表明，债务 的快速积累正将国家推向更深的财政困境。37万亿美元不仅仅是一个数字，它更代表着日益增加的纳税 人负担，按照美国3.42亿的人口去算，相当于每个美国人身背近80万人民币的债务。 财政专家警告称，这一债务水平将极大地影响美国的经济健康。持续的借贷可能推高利率，增加家庭和 企业的融资成本，并挤占政府的其他关键优先事务资金，这就像一个"恶性循环"：更多的借贷带来更多 的利息成本，导致更进一步的借贷。 市场分析显示，美债增长速度远超历史平均水平，如今大约每5个月就增加1万亿美元。尽管美政府凭借 美元的国际地位暂时稳住了美债，但若不加以遏制，国际市场对美债的信心或将在某一时刻彻底动摇 ...

—— 从债务螺旋到全球金融震荡的深度解析 一、37 万亿美元的悬崖：数据背后的生死时速 当地时间 8 月 12 日，美国国债总额首次突破 37 万亿美元，较美国国会预算办公室 2020 年预测的时间 线整整提前了 5 年。这一数字相当于美国 2024 年 GDP 的 1.27 倍，若以 3.42 亿总人口计算，平均每个 美国人背负 10.8 万美元债务，折合人民币近 80 万元。更致命的是，美债正以每 5 个月增加 1 万亿美元 的速度膨胀，远超过去 25 年平均增速的两倍。 1. 利息吞噬财政的恶性循环 2024 财年，美国国债利息支出达 1.133 万亿美元，首次超过国防预算（8735 亿美元）和老年医疗保险 支出（8741 亿美元），占财政收入的 18.7%，远超 15% 的国际警戒线。桥水基金创始人瑞・达利欧警 告，这种 "发新债还旧息" 的模式已形成 "死亡螺旋"—— 更高的利息支出迫使美国财政部发行更多债 券，而投资者因风险激增要求更高收益率，进一步推高融资成本。 2. 债务上限的政治游戏 尽管美债规模已突破 36.1 万亿美元的法定上限，但两党仍在 "提高上限" 问题上僵持不下。财政部现金 储备 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, indicating a significant increase in debt levels and suggesting that future growth is likely [1] - The ratio of US debt to GDP is projected to be 126.8% in 2024, raising concerns about potential debt crises, although the US has unique advantages compared to Greece due to its ability to print its own currency [1][2] - The US has two main strategies to manage its debt: selling bonds to foreign central banks and investors, and printing more dollars, which could lead to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - The accumulation of US debt is not without risks, as the credibility of the dollar is crucial for maintaining investor confidence [2] - The Federal Reserve's actions, such as interest rate hikes, are intended to support the dollar's credibility but may inadvertently accelerate debt accumulation [3] - The US government's inability to reduce spending and the rising interest on debt are contributing to the increasing debt burden [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's policies have weakened the foundations of dollar credibility, impacting the US's global influence and economic stability [4][5] - Trade policies aimed at reducing deficits may undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, leading to potential challenges in selling US debt [5][6] - The rise of alternative currencies and assets, such as digital currencies and gold, poses a challenge to the dollar's dominance [6][7] Group 4 - The current strategy of the US to address its debt issues involves leveraging its position to pressure other countries, potentially leading to a loss of confidence in the dollar [8][9] - Central banks are encouraged to adapt to the changing environment by diversifying their reserves away from US debt and dollars into other valuable assets [9]

王爷说财经讯：你敢相信？美国国债刚突破37万亿美元大关！ 相当于每个美国人背债10.7万美元，能买两辆特斯拉Model Y！如果把这些钱换成1美元纸 币，绕地球赤道能缠14圈！ 特朗普紧急呼吁美联储降息，但这能救美债吗？这颗金融核弹会不会突然爆雷？ 今天我们就一起来撕开美债的真相——美国靠什么'躺着还钱'？爆雷后，中国和全球经济会怎样？ 别眨眼，这场大戏关乎每个人的钱包！ 8月13日消息，最近美国国债再次突破历史新高，即：美国国债首次突破37万亿，远超GDP的114%，债务增速远超经济承载力。 另外，数据还显示，美国政府靠'借新还旧'维持，利息支出已超军费，2025年光付息就需1.2万亿美元（占财政收入的26.5%）。 最后一点，如果美联储大幅降息，这可能会动摇美国以及美元在全球信任度，因为美元信用依赖美债安全，若政策混乱，投资者或加速抛售美债。 最后一个问题：美债会爆雷吗？影响如何？ 就短期来看，美债爆雷的风险低！因为美元霸权+美联储操作（如量化宽松）可暂时续命，但长期依赖"借新还旧"不可持续。 不过，如果一旦投资者信心崩塌，如评级再降、外国大规模抛售美债、利率飙升或财政失控，可能触发连锁反应。 值得一提的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, approximately 120% of GDP, significantly exceeding the international warning threshold of 60% [1] - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of this debt will mature, requiring daily repayments of about $25 billion, putting immense pressure on the U.S. fiscal situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have led to a surge in interest payments, projected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2024, surpassing the defense budget [3] Group 2 - The foreign ownership of U.S. debt has dropped to 30%, the lowest in 20 years, indicating a loss of confidence among global investors [3] - Efforts by the Trump administration to reduce fiscal pressure through budget cuts and tax increases have been largely ineffective, with only minor reductions achieved [3][4] - Trump's extreme measures, including public disputes and controversial statements, have intensified political divisions and raised concerns about the legitimacy of U.S. foreign policy [4] Group 3 - Both China and Japan have shown signs of reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, with China decreasing its holdings by $18.9 billion and Japan reportedly transferring $200 billion to offshore accounts [4][5] - The Trump administration's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve and its leadership could have long-term implications for the credibility of the U.S. dollar [5] - The combination of high debt, high interest rates, and high tariffs has created a "death triangle," leading to economic slowdown and increased volatility in financial markets [7] Group 4 - The ongoing debt crisis has prompted discussions about the potential decline of U.S. global dominance and the rise of alternative financial systems, particularly among BRICS nations [5][7] - The current economic environment mirrors pre-2008 financial crisis conditions, raising alarms about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies [7] - The effectiveness of Trump's strategies to address the debt crisis remains uncertain, with deeper systemic issues still unaddressed [7]

Group 1 - The core issue is the astronomical U.S. debt of $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, which is equivalent to the economic output of two Canadas [1] - The U.S. debt has surged from $33 trillion to $36.8 trillion in just six months, marking a historic growth rate, with an increase of $2 billion daily [1][39] - The U.S. government has struggled to implement effective measures to manage this debt, facing resistance from various interest groups and political challenges [4][6] Group 2 - Trump's initial strategies to reduce spending, such as cutting military expenses and welfare, faced significant pushback from military contractors and Congress, leading to minimal savings [4][6] - Efforts to increase revenue through tariffs on imports have not yielded the desired results, as trade deficits remained unchanged and retaliatory measures from other countries exacerbated the situation [10][11][13] - The Federal Reserve, holding $7.5 trillion in U.S. debt, has resisted Trump's calls for interest rate cuts, further complicating the debt repayment situation [15][27] Group 3 - The U.S. is caught in a vicious cycle of borrowing to pay interest, with rising interest rates making it increasingly difficult to manage debt [17][39] - Trump's public accusations against government data integrity, including claims of falsified employment statistics, have raised concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data [31][33] - The erosion of institutional credibility could lead to significant shifts in global capital flows, with countries like China reducing their holdings of U.S. debt [35][37] Group 4 - The International Monetary Fund has warned that U.S. debt risks are nearing critical levels, with potential implications for global financial markets [39] - Moody's analysis suggests that the U.S. debt crisis could lead to a decline in global GDP by 1.2% to 2.8% [41] - The U.S. debt growth rate is significantly higher than that of other developed nations, raising alarms about the sustainability of its fiscal policies [54][56] Group 5 - The current debt crisis is viewed as a pivotal moment in the decline of U.S. global dominance, with the emergence of a multipolar world order [43][57] - China's strategic responses, including diversifying trade and enhancing domestic production capabilities, contrast sharply with the U.S. approach to debt management [48][50] - The potential for a new global economic order is being shaped by the U.S.'s internal challenges and the strategic resilience demonstrated by China [57]