前阵子特朗普在自己开的社交平台Truth Social上发了个消息，说美国的大豆种植户现在很艰难，因为中国 出于"谈判"的目的，不买美国大豆了，他还透露四周后要和中方见面，大豆问题会是重点。 中国是世界上最大的大豆买家，买的大豆量占全球进口的三分之二，以前美国是中国买大豆的主要对象， 现在巴西和阿根廷成了新宠。 眼看着中国不买，美国大豆协会着急了，赶紧给特朗普写信，希望政府能帮忙解决出口问题。 美国大豆卖不出去，除了政治因素，还有关税问题，特朗普其实很清楚问题有多棘手，一边是农民不停抱 怨，一边是党内强硬派不肯让步。 如果降低对中国的大豆关税，别人会说他"对中国妥协"；可要是不降，农民又越来越不满，左右为难，搞 得他在竞选活动上谈农业都没底气。 这场大豆风波，其实就是中美在"供应链安全"上较劲，美国一直觉得，大豆是自己的"王牌"，因为中国需 求大、离不开美国，所以每次谈判都想用大豆要挟中国。 但现在中国用实际行动证明，美国这招不管用了，中国不仅从南美买大豆，还和加拿大、澳大利亚等国谈 合作，国内大豆自给率也在提高，2024年中国国产大豆比前年多了11%。现在中国已经没有"非买美国大豆 不可"的压力了。 反过来 ...

供应链牵引成为行业共识 今年3.28日昂瑞微科创板IPO申报获得受理，这在射频前端行业是个重大事件， 经过最近几年发 展，昂瑞微业绩发展迅速，2024年销售额赶上唯捷创芯，成功跻身射频前端第一梯队，与唯捷创 芯一道率先推出射频前端中最难的Sub3G L-PAMiD产品，并在头部品牌手机终端客户旗舰机型量 产，填补射频前端最关键的一块短板。据昂瑞微披露资料，其在卫星通信和车载电子等应用的射频 前端市场也有较大进展，5G接收模组也在头部品牌手机终端量产，补齐5G射频前端拼图。 美国打压成就中国射频前端公司迅速发展 昂瑞微近几年发展迅速，离不开美国对中国通信巨头华为、中兴打压带来的第一波国产替代红利。 在2019年之前，国产射频厂家的日子不好过，做出来的芯片得不到大客户的认可，只能在中低端 市场厮杀，没有足够的财务实力并且没有头部品牌客户牵引，产品往往落后海外友商一代以上，竞 争力严重不足。这个情况在2019年以后得到改观，美国的打压让国内头部手机终端客户认识到对 国产供应链的牵引重要性，昂瑞微正是抓住这波机会，紧跟头部大客户牵引，在2023年成功开发 出可以用于高端旗舰手机的射频前端芯片系列，完成华丽转身，跻身国 ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global supply and demand landscape for critical minerals is undergoing significant changes, with a surge in demand driven by energy transition, particularly in electric vehicles and energy storage [1][6][7] - Lithium demand is expected to increase by nearly 30% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing the average annual growth rate of 10% seen in the 2010s [1][6] - By 2040, lithium, graphite, and rare earth demand is projected to grow by 4.7 times, 2.2 times, and 1.6 times respectively, with electric vehicle batteries consuming 60% of global lithium and 40% of nickel and cobalt [1][7] Group 2: Supply Concentration and Investment Trends - The supply side is characterized by increasing concentration, with China, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo dominating the market, leading to an average market share of 86% in the refining sector for the top three producing countries [1][9] - Despite the surge in demand, global investment in critical mineral extraction is expected to slow, with growth rates dropping to 5% in 2024, half of the previous year's rate [1][10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of potential shortages, predicting a 30% gap in copper supply by 2035 and possible lithium shortages in the 2030s [1][10] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences and Market Pressures - Geopolitical tensions are reshaping resource order, with countries accelerating the establishment of mineral security frameworks, such as the U.S. simplifying licensing processes and the EU passing the Critical Raw Materials Act [2][15] - China's export controls on strategic minerals have led to significant price increases, with bismuth prices rising by 90% and cobalt prices surging by 67% following export restrictions [2][26] - The market faces structural contradictions, with rising costs and environmental pressures hindering development, as emerging producers experience higher operational costs compared to leading producers [2][8] Group 4: Policy Innovations and Technological Breakthroughs - To address these challenges, innovative policy mechanisms are needed, such as establishing certification systems for differentiated pricing and increasing public financial support for high-risk projects [3] - Technological advancements in mining, refining, and recycling are essential, including the development of new techniques to reduce energy consumption and costs in rare earth production [3][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and partnerships to ensure a stable supply chain for critical minerals [30][31]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 关注俄乌冲突外溢风险 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：俄乌冲突或局势升级；特朗普宣布新一轮产业关税；美方承诺不会 允许以色列吞并约旦河西岸。 未来一周：俄乌局势；中东和谈进程及伊朗核谈判进程；美国联邦政府面临 "关门"风险；美国新产业关税生效。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）俄乌冲突或面临升级和外溢风险。1）地缘紧张升级，乌克兰继续袭击俄 能源设施，俄限制部分柴油及汽油出口，本周布伦特原油上涨 4.2%， ICE 柴油上涨 3.5%。2）在近期波兰、爱沙尼亚等国声称俄罗斯无人 机、战机侵入领空的情况下，欧洲国家表示将打击俄战机，俄乌冲突面 临局势升级、范围扩大风险，但欧洲国家内部分歧或影响其实际行动力 度。3）本周特朗普称乌克兰在欧盟和北约支持下，其边界有望"恢复原 状"。相较于以往特朗普敦促乌克兰"接受现实"，特朗普此次表述呈 现出明显对乌克兰的支持。但我们认为这主要是由于特朗普失望于"普 特会"以来俄乌和谈缺乏进展，从实际行动上美方尚未 ...

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are considering setting a price floor for rare earths to boost production and may impose taxes on certain Chinese rare earth exports to encourage investment in the sector [1][2] - The G7 countries, except Japan, are highly dependent on China for various materials, including rare earth magnets and battery metals, prompting discussions on regulatory measures to limit investments flowing to China [1][2] - There are internal disagreements within the G7 regarding the implementation of regional restrictions, which may include local procurement rules or limitations on public procurement from specific countries like China [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government is collaborating with the G7 and EU leaders on broader trade measures to prevent low-priced dumping of rare earths, including tariffs and price floors [2] - Canada is positively inclined towards adopting a price floor mechanism similar to the U.S. to support domestic rare earth production, while Australia is also considering similar actions [2] - Despite efforts to reduce reliance on China, the significant role of China in the global rare earth supply chain remains a challenge for G7 countries, as highlighted by industry leaders [2][3]

Group 1 - Argentina has announced the cancellation of soybean export taxes, leading to a rapid increase in orders from Chinese buyers, with at least 10 to 15 ships ordered within hours [1][3][5] - The Argentine government has reduced the export tax rate on soybeans and other agricultural products to zero to enhance its export competitiveness [3][5] - This move has created a significant price advantage, prompting Chinese buyers to act quickly on pre-prepared orders [5][12] Group 2 - Taiwan's government has signed a controversial agreement to import over $10 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, over the next four years [6][10] - This procurement deal is seen as a heavy burden for Taiwan, which has a population comparable to Shanghai, and may negatively impact local farmers [10][12] - The U.S. soybean industry is facing challenges as the large orders from Taiwan are insufficient to address the broader issues affecting American farmers [10][12] Group 3 - The contrasting actions of Argentina and Taiwan highlight the shifting dynamics in global soybean trade, with China increasingly supporting its competitors [12][20] - China's investments in South America, including infrastructure improvements, are facilitating a more reliable supply chain for soybeans [13][20] - The establishment of new supply chains and partnerships with South American suppliers is seen as a strategic move to reduce reliance on U.S. soybeans [20][22] Group 4 - The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a loss of trust and long-term relationships due to political risks associated with American exports [18][20] - Historical parallels are drawn between the current situation of U.S. soybean farmers and the decline of the American automotive industry in the 1970s [24][25] - Control over soybean supply is crucial for national protein supply chains, indicating that China's global soybean procurement has transcended mere trade [27][28]

Core Points - Jaguar Land Rover, the largest automotive manufacturer in the UK, announced a production halt due to a cyber attack, extending the shutdown period to October 1 [2][4] - The cyber attack occurred at a critical time for the automotive industry, coinciding with the new car registration day in the UK [4] - The hacker group "Scattered Lapsus$ Hunters" claimed responsibility for the attack, which resulted in the suspension of operations across multiple global production lines [4][8] - The attack has led to significant operational disruptions, affecting around 33,000 employees and halting production in the UK, Slovakia, China, India, and Brazil [4][5] - Experts estimate the financial impact of the attack could reach up to £5 million per day, with potential profit losses of £120 million if production remains halted until November [8][10] Company Impact - The cyber attack has caused a ripple effect, impacting small suppliers and retailers who rely on Jaguar Land Rover's systems for parts procurement and vehicle registration [5] - The company is actively investigating the cyber incident and working to restore global operations, which requires time and resources [4][10] - Jaguar Land Rover has already faced challenges this year, including a nearly 11% decline in quarterly sales and a reduction in profit margin targets due to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [10]

但在当前地缘政治加速变革之际，欧盟的关键矿产战略能否实现？其战略焦虑将如何影响中欧合作？面对上述问题，本文从能源地缘战略视角切入，着重 探讨中欧在关键矿产领域的竞合逻辑与协同路径。 文章指出，在全球能源绿色转型和大国博弈变乱交织的背景下，欧盟正围绕上述一系列战略项目，重塑全球关键矿产供应链格局。通过深化与合作伙伴的 资源开发，力图在电动汽车、可再生能源、国防航天等领域构建更具韧性的供应体系。作者认为，这种布局在提高欧盟关键矿产供应链安全的同时，也会 对中国构成一定地缘政治压力。 对于欧盟关键矿产强力行动带来的"供应链替代、技术壁垒、地缘挤压、规则约束"等挑战，如何基于国际规则框架寻求中欧合作机遇，缓和欧盟战略焦 虑，防止冲突演变失控，亟待全面系统谋划。本文为"欧亚原创评论"专栏第2篇文章，欧亚系统科学研究会特此刊发，供读者思考，文章仅代表作者本人 观点。 一、关键矿产：全球秩序变迁的"战略锚点" 百年未有之大变局下，产业升级、技术变革与地缘政治的交织，正重塑全球资源治理格局。关键矿产（如锂、钴、镍、石墨、稀土等）的战略价值持续凸 显——既是新能源汽车、动力电池、储能设备、半导体芯片等新质生产力的"核心原料"， ...

业内人士形容，这是一次典型的"多米诺骨牌效应"：单一通道的阻断迅速传导至整个产业 链，从零部件厂商到整车生产再到经销网络，全链条都受到冲击。 中国车企紧急应对： 生产、物流、技术"三箭齐发" 面对突如其来的"断供危机"，中国车企迅速启动应急预案，从生产本地化、物流多元化、 技术自主化三方面展开自救。比亚迪在匈牙利工厂投产后，本地供应能力已覆盖中欧80% 的市场，零部件运输成本降低约25%，同时有效规避了边境封锁风险。宁德时代在德国图 林根的电池工厂则为宝马、大众等欧洲整车厂提供就近配套，电池的本地化生产使下游企 业的生产节奏得到保障。 近日，波兰以安全威胁为由突然关闭边境，导致超过3 0 0列中欧班列滞留、1.23万个集装 箱积压。这一突发事件直接冲击中国与欧洲之间的汽车零部件供应链，迫使车企紧急启 动"重构战"。 物流中断撕开产业链裂口 中欧班列是中国对欧汽车精密部件运输的关键通道，长期承担了约3 5%的运输份额。波兰 边境的突然封锁，使这一大动脉瞬间"休克"。对全球汽车产业而言，这不仅是一场运输事 故，更是一场供应链安全的深度危机。 专家指出，汽车产业的零部件供应高度依赖跨境运输和精确的时间安排。控制系统 ...

证券之星消息，格林美(002340)09月22日在投资者关系平台上答复投资者关心的问题。 投资者提问：董秘好，刚果(金)钴供应收紧，市场普遍看好印尼钴资源。请问公司印尼项目的伴生钴产 能有多少，禁令对公司有什么影响? 格林美回复：感谢您的关注！格林美印尼镍冶炼项目产能共15万金属吨/年，可伴生钴资源约1.2万金属 吨/年。2025年上半年，公司印尼镍资源项目自产钴金属3,667吨，同比增长125%。2024年和2025年上半 年，公司钴回收分别达10,128吨和5,187吨，这不仅显著强化了公司镍钴原料的自主可控能力，更在全球 钴供应链面临重大政策扰动之际，构筑起一道坚实的资源护城河。刚果（金）出口配额政策可能加剧中 间流通环节的供给紧张和价格波动，但对格林美而言，这恰恰是彰显其一体化优势的战略契机。公司依 托印尼资源实现钴原料高度自供，有效对冲外部依赖风险，大幅平滑采购成本，同时MHP产品极强的 成本竞争力（吨镍成本经钴收益抵扣后极具弹性）将驱动利润空间显著扩张。在行业面临"无钴可用"的 困境时，格林美稳定的自供能力将成为下游客户争夺的关键资源，进而加速市场份额提升，强化行业定 价权。 以上内容为证券之星据 ...