US EQUITIES - trading the consensus 美股 - 交易市场共识 Market sentiment has kicked off 2026 on a very strong note. Our Risk Appetite Indicator has accelerated to ~0.9 – a 96 th percentile reading historically and the highest level since early 2025. At these levels, small pullbacks tend to become more frequent and outsized equity returns are rarer. But elevated risk appetite on its own is not a sell signal – when the macro backdrop is supportive, optimistic regimes can persist for longer than most expect. 市场情绪在 202 ...

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a third straight meeting on Wednesday, but all eyes will be on its signals for 2026, as markets weigh whether the central bank will continue easing or hold steady. The move would lower the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, down from 4.25%–4.50% in August and well below the cycle peak of 5.25%–5.50% held from mid-2023 to late 2024. Despite uneven data flows caused by the government shutdown, markets have steadily increased their bets on a rat ...