人民币中间价和离岸价背离

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国金高频图鉴 | CPI与PPI走势分化&北京二手房成交占比近8成
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-08-10 12:16
Group 1: CPI and PPI Divergence - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat at -3.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points to -0.2%, slightly below the consensus expectation of -3.4% [7][3][11] Group 2: Export Shipping Data Decline - High tariffs have led to a decline in high-frequency data related to Chinese exports. In the first week of August, the average number of container ships departing from China to the U.S. was 53 vessels per day, down from 65 vessels in July. The total container ship load decreased from 500,000 TEU to 430,000 TEU [5][6] Group 3: Beijing Real Estate Policy Changes - On August 8, Beijing announced new real estate policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and increased support for public housing loans. The market is observing whether other cities will follow suit with similar policies [7][8] Group 4: Divergence of RMB Middle Rate and Offshore Rate - At the end of July, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.21 against the USD but has since fluctuated around 7.17. The People's Bank of China has shown a more supportive stance towards the RMB exchange rate, with the middle rate rising to 7.13 on August 7, the highest since 2025 [9][11] Group 5: Excavator Sales and Operating Hours - In July, domestic excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. However, the average working hours for major construction machinery products fell to 80.8 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%. This decline in working hours may be attributed to the high-temperature season and weaker operational rates [11][12]