人民币汇率评估
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中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略、消费、电力电气设备、化工
中金点睛· 2025-12-20 01:03
Strategy - The markets in the US, A-shares, and Hong Kong have shown a quarterly switching pattern since early 2025, with a "seesaw" effect and inter-market correlations. In Q1, DeepSeek led the revaluation of Chinese assets, while in Q2, US stocks benefited from AI leaders' unexpected performance and capital expenditure growth. However, Hong Kong stocks have lagged behind, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.7% as of November, while A-shares and US stocks posted positive returns [5][3]. Macroeconomy - Recent market focus has been on the RMB exchange rate, with traditional models suggesting a significant deviation from its "equilibrium value." The assessment of whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued is complex and heavily dependent on the analytical framework used. In today's highly developed financial environment, relying solely on neoclassical frameworks can lead to substantial misjudgments regarding exchange rates [7]. Industry - Food and Beverage - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2025, with a weak overall consumption environment. The industry is focusing on high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends. The liquor sector continues to experience weak demand, while the beverage and snack sectors show better performance. The outlook for next year suggests a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and expanding consumer demographics [9]. Industry - Power and Electrical Equipment - The power and industrial control sectors are expected to perform steadily in 2025, with a focus on structural opportunities. Domestic grid investment remains robust, particularly with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage project approvals. The grid sector is seen as a post-cycle investment area for new energy, indicating a significant investment gap. The industrial control sector is also in a recovery phase, with demand expected to continue growing [11]. Industry - Chemicals - The petrochemical sector has been in a downturn for approximately three and a half years. However, with a decline in capital expenditure and the exit of outdated overseas capacities, the industry is expected to enter a low-growth phase. Positive supply-side factors and rapid growth in demand from new energy sectors suggest that the industry may be approaching a cyclical turning point, which could improve supply-demand dynamics and overall industry conditions [13].