Workflow
行业周期拐点
icon
Search documents
中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略、消费、电力电气设备、化工
中金点睛· 2025-12-20 01:03
中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 如何在美A港三地中做出选择? >>点击图片查看全文<< 2025.12.14 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 03 消费Industry 食品饮料2026年展望:筑底接近尾声,聚焦高质量增长 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2025年初以来,美A港三地市场呈现以季度维度的切换脉络,既有此消彼长的"跷跷板"效应,也有跨市场间的映射联动。一季度 DeepSeek引领中国资产重估,恒科领跑;二季度美国对等关税后,美股凭借AI龙头超预期业绩与资本开支涨幅居前,港股新消费和创 新药启动,但恒科始终没回到3月高点;三季度国内资金入市叙事强化、科创算力行情推动A股后来居上;9月"宽松交易"与中国互联网 龙头AI叙事强化,一度使港股再度跑赢。但11月下旬以来,三地中港股却尤为疲弱,不仅跌幅更大、也未能跟上美股和A股的修复节 奏。恒生国企下跌2.2%,恒科跌0.7%。相反,A股和美股均有正收益,沪深300涨0.5%,标普500和纳指分别涨5.5%和6.9%,港股直到 上周五才迎来反弹。那么,港股近期为何在三地中走得更弱?往前看,又应该如何在美A港三地 ...
半个月上涨超10%,拐点来了?
Core Viewpoint - The average price of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to 55,200 yuan/ton as of August 15, marking an increase of over 10% since the end of July, sparking discussions about a potential turning point in the industry despite being far from the historical peak of 590,000 yuan/ton in 2022 [2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The recent increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is primarily driven by the rebound in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, which have surged nearly 40% from below 60,000 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [2] - The current nominal monthly production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate stands at 36,600 tons, with an effective monthly capacity of 24,500 tons, and global demand is expected to exceed 24,600 tons starting in September [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The growth in downstream demand, particularly from new energy storage installations, has contributed to the support of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, with a reported 29% increase in installed capacity compared to the end of 2024 [2] - In July, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 22,500 tons, while supply was slightly higher at 22,800 tons, indicating a tightening market as demand continues to rise [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate prices to continue to rise slightly, potentially reaching the 60,000 yuan/ton mark in the short term [3] - However, industry insiders caution that the extent of price increases may be limited due to rising raw material costs, which may not significantly improve company profitability [3]