智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，2025年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望2026年，本轮行业扩 产已近尾声，"反内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快速发展，有 望开启新一轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大市评级，推荐三条投资主线。1、传统 化工龙头；2、"反内卷"等持续催化，关注供需格局持续向好子行业；3、下游行业快速发展，新材料领 域公司发展空间广阔。 中银国际主要观点如下： 化工品价格处于历史低位，基础化工盈利周期性触底 截至2025年11月，全国工业品PPI、生产资料PPI及化工工业PPI均连续38个月呈现同比负增长，形成仅 次于2012-2016年周期(当时为连续54个月)的历史第二长负增长持续期间。产品价格方面，以2015年以来 的价格数据为基础，截至25年12月底，在该行跟踪的111个化工品种中，价格分位数在10%以下的品种 有30种，价格分位数在30%以下(含10%以下)的品种有70种，价格分位数在50%以上的品种有25种。截 至2025年前三季度，SW基础化工行业销售毛利率和销售净利率分别为16.82%和6.41%。SW石油石化行 业得益于油气上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Heart-to-Heart Fertilizer, is actively signaling its confidence in long-term growth through a series of stock buybacks, reflecting its belief in its ability to navigate industry cycles and its future growth potential [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Buyback Actions - As of the report date, the company has spent over 20 million HKD to repurchase 2.286 million shares and announced a plan to buy back up to 10% of its issued shares for no more than 200 million HKD within the year [1]. - The buyback actions are seen as a strong declaration of the company's confidence in its intrinsic value and market valuation, especially after a significant stock price increase of 135% in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The fertilizer industry is currently at a cyclical low, with signs of recovery becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the urea market, which has seen price increases of 20-70 CNY/ton recently [2][3]. - Factors contributing to the price rebound include demand replenishment post-holidays and the impact of policies aimed at reducing overcapacity, which are expected to support price increases in the long term [3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a cost advantage, with its production costs consistently 10% lower than the industry average due to ongoing efficiency improvements [4]. - The company holds a significant market position, with over 10% of the national urea export volume in the first half of 2025, and is expected to benefit from increased export quotas [4]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - New projects, such as the second phase of the Jiujiang base and the chemical new materials project in Xinxiang, are set to enhance profitability and expand production capacity, further solidifying the company's growth trajectory [5]. - The company is in a strategic phase of preparing for accelerated growth, with management confident in the company's future performance despite previous stock price increases [8].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Longpan Technology Group Co., Ltd. announced a planned production reduction for its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to ensure the stable operation of its lithium iron phosphate production line, with a reduction of approximately 5,000 tons expected during a one-month maintenance period starting January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The production line of Changzhou Liyuan has been operating at full capacity since Q4 2025, and the maintenance is scheduled for January due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year [2] - Other lithium iron phosphate companies, including Hunan Youneng New Energy Battery Materials Co., Ltd. and Guizhou Anda Technology Energy Co., Ltd., have also announced production reductions ranging from 3,000 tons to 35,000 tons, with maintenance concentrated in January 2026 [1][2] - Longpan Technology is simultaneously advancing its capacity expansion for lithium iron phosphate, planning to increase the production capacity of its project from 62,500 tons per year to 100,000 tons per year, with the total planned capacity rising to 187,500 tons per year [2] Group 2 - Longpan Technology plans to raise up to 2 billion yuan through a specific stock issuance to fund high-performance phosphate-based cathode material projects and to supplement working capital [3] - The company emphasizes that developing high-performance products and having a well-structured capacity will provide a competitive edge in a phase of intensified industry competition [3] - The strategy of simultaneous maintenance and expansion is seen as a key move to navigate the industry's cyclical turning point, aiming to stabilize prices in the short term while expanding capacity to meet future demand [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The dairy sector has shown strong stock performance due to favorable policies, expectations of a cyclical turning point, seasonal demand release, and capital inflow. The National Healthcare Security Administration aims for "no out-of-pocket" costs for childbirth by 2026, alongside local childcare subsidies, boosting long-term demand for maternal and infant dairy products. The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued policies to enhance consumption [4][14] - After previous capacity clearance, the acceleration of dairy cow inventory reduction has stabilized raw milk prices, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point in 2026, leading to increased milk prices. Dairy companies are transitioning towards "nutrition and health," with growing demand for functional dairy products and the upcoming launch of deep processing capacities, opening new growth opportunities [4][14] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for dairy products is expected to surge due to family reunions and gift purchases, with rising health consciousness driving sales of organic and functional dairy products [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) increased by 1.05% this week, ranking 13th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.33 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 21.75 [19] - Among the 10 sub-sectors, only beer and liquor saw declines, while the highest gain was in baked goods (+8.0%). A total of 107 stocks in the sector rose, with the top five performers being Huanlejia (+44.42%), Zhuangyuan Pasture (+35.96%), Huangshi Group (+21.16%), Junyao Health (+17.02%), and Sunshine Dairy (+14.72%) [19] Company Announcements - Wuliangye held its 12.18 conference, focusing on systematic construction to address market uncertainties. The company is implementing tailored strategies for different partners and is optimistic about sales during the 2026 Spring Festival due to more scientific strategies [5][15] - Mixue Ice Cream opened its first store in North America in Hollywood, Los Angeles, emphasizing a localized and cost-effective strategy. The store offers a wide range of sweetness levels to cater to local preferences, successfully generating social buzz and brand recognition [6][16] - Yanjinpuzi announced a 2025 stock incentive plan, with performance targets set for net profits from 2026 to 2028, aiming for significant growth. The company plans to refocus on supermarkets and leverage its flagship products for growth [7][17][18]

Strategy - The markets in the US, A-shares, and Hong Kong have shown a quarterly switching pattern since early 2025, with a "seesaw" effect and inter-market correlations. In Q1, DeepSeek led the revaluation of Chinese assets, while in Q2, US stocks benefited from AI leaders' unexpected performance and capital expenditure growth. However, Hong Kong stocks have lagged behind, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.7% as of November, while A-shares and US stocks posted positive returns [5][3]. Macroeconomy - Recent market focus has been on the RMB exchange rate, with traditional models suggesting a significant deviation from its "equilibrium value." The assessment of whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued is complex and heavily dependent on the analytical framework used. In today's highly developed financial environment, relying solely on neoclassical frameworks can lead to substantial misjudgments regarding exchange rates [7]. Industry - Food and Beverage - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2025, with a weak overall consumption environment. The industry is focusing on high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends. The liquor sector continues to experience weak demand, while the beverage and snack sectors show better performance. The outlook for next year suggests a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and expanding consumer demographics [9]. Industry - Power and Electrical Equipment - The power and industrial control sectors are expected to perform steadily in 2025, with a focus on structural opportunities. Domestic grid investment remains robust, particularly with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage project approvals. The grid sector is seen as a post-cycle investment area for new energy, indicating a significant investment gap. The industrial control sector is also in a recovery phase, with demand expected to continue growing [11]. Industry - Chemicals - The petrochemical sector has been in a downturn for approximately three and a half years. However, with a decline in capital expenditure and the exit of outdated overseas capacities, the industry is expected to enter a low-growth phase. Positive supply-side factors and rapid growth in demand from new energy sectors suggest that the industry may be approaching a cyclical turning point, which could improve supply-demand dynamics and overall industry conditions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The average price of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to 55,200 yuan/ton as of August 15, marking an increase of over 10% since the end of July, sparking discussions about a potential turning point in the industry despite being far from the historical peak of 590,000 yuan/ton in 2022 [2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The recent increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is primarily driven by the rebound in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, which have surged nearly 40% from below 60,000 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [2] - The current nominal monthly production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate stands at 36,600 tons, with an effective monthly capacity of 24,500 tons, and global demand is expected to exceed 24,600 tons starting in September [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The growth in downstream demand, particularly from new energy storage installations, has contributed to the support of lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, with a reported 29% increase in installed capacity compared to the end of 2024 [2] - In July, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 22,500 tons, while supply was slightly higher at 22,800 tons, indicating a tightening market as demand continues to rise [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate prices to continue to rise slightly, potentially reaching the 60,000 yuan/ton mark in the short term [3] - However, industry insiders caution that the extent of price increases may be limited due to rising raw material costs, which may not significantly improve company profitability [3]