AIDC 空间广阔、人形机器人迎新催化 2025 年 08 月 25 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2024-8-26 2024-12-24 2025-4-23 2025-8-21 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《AIDC 持续高景气，固态产业化加 速》 2025-08-17 《AI 电气专题：AIDC 建设迎风起， 产业加速迭代创新机》 2025-08-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 48 ◼ 风险提示：投资增速下滑，政策不及市场预期，价格竞争超市场预期 东吴证券 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is experiencing strong inflows of new funds, particularly from foreign investments and margin financing, indicating a solid foundation for the ongoing bull market [1][6] - Since June, foreign capital has consistently flowed into the market, with passive funds contributing approximately 19 billion USD, equivalent to over 100 billion CNY into A-shares, and a similar amount into Hong Kong stocks [1][6] Key Market Trends - The market's trading volume has increased from 1.5 trillion to 2.3 trillion, with expectations to reach 2.5 trillion [2] - The bull market is still in its second phase of growth, with historical data suggesting that the market is not close to its peak [8] - Current financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization is around 0.85, below the peak of 0.9, indicating that there is still room for growth [8] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy focuses on leading sectors such as brokerage firms, non-ferrous metals, and coal [4] - Attention should also be given to low-level state-owned enterprise restructuring areas, including electricity, power, and travel chains [4] - Growth sectors to watch include the Hang Seng Technology sector and domestic computing power layouts, such as Cambrian [4] Monitoring Market Dynamics - Short-term market peaks are typically accompanied by reduced trading volume; however, if the market continues to rise with increasing volume, it may not reach a peak soon [3][9] - Monitoring changes in trading volume is crucial for identifying potential entry points during market corrections [11] Risk Factors - Two primary risk factors to monitor include changes in overseas liquidity and international relations, particularly the stance of the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting [12] - A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could trigger market corrections, while international relations, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, should also be assessed for their potential impact on the market [12] Conclusion - The market remains robust with significant inflows and high trading volumes, suggesting continued upward momentum. However, vigilance is required regarding external factors that could influence market stability and growth potential [10][12]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power equipment industry, highlighting the recovery in wind and thermal power sectors and the potential of fusion energy storage [1][3] - Wind power is expected to see a revaluation of the value of complete machines, with offshore wind and export logic gradually becoming apparent [3][37] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers has reached a historical low but is anticipated to rebound as the pace of turbine size increase slows down [10][19] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional energy sources during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a significant increase in coal-fired power approvals expected in 2025 [38][42] - The energy storage market is accelerating its development, with a focus on both spot and ancillary service markets [3][37] - The report suggests that the nuclear fusion sector should be monitored closely for bidding rhythms and strategic positioning within the core industry chain [3][37] Group 3 - The offshore wind sector is poised for a resurgence, with a backlog of projects ready to commence construction, particularly in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces [27][28] - The report indicates that the high-voltage and direct current cable market is benefiting from the transition to higher voltage systems, with leading cable manufacturers likely to see improved margins [32][33] - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the wind power equipment sector, recommending specific stocks such as Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Cable [34][35]

蒙西电网是国家电网、南方电网"两网"之外的第三张电网， 正谋求资产证券化，其核心业务 亦有望上市。 据内蒙古电力集团公众号，今年8月4日至5日，内蒙古电力集团分别与上海证券交易所、深圳 证券交易所进行高层会谈，就能源企业上市、资本运作、产业板块上市规划、绿色金融等议题 进行交流。 内蒙古电力集团党委书记、董事长张海峰谈到，电力集团全力服务国家新能源大基地和外送通 道建设，在经营、调度、市场化交易等方面具有独特优势。同时积极响应自治区产业金融布局 要求，主动参与资本市场运作，探索债券发行、资产证券等投资渠道， 公开报道中还特别提及了，内蒙古电力集团正筹划储能业务和信息化业务板块上市，努力实现 产业结构和股权多元化。 上海证券交易所党委委员、副总经理苑多然在座谈中谈到，上海证券交易所将充分发挥自身优 势，深度服务电力集团产业上市需求，广泛链接优质产业资源，提供全方位资本运作规划指 导。希望双方拓展投资方式，在绿色债券、公募REITs等领域深化合作，丰富融资渠道，提高 融资效率，降低融资成本，助力电力集团在国内资本市场领域，取得新的更大突破。 深圳证券交易所党委委员、副总经理李鸣钟也表示，深圳证券交易所将全力支持电 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a potential second wave of market growth, focusing on technology and cyclical leaders as key investment opportunities [3][6][11] Liquidity and Market Conditions - The report notes a decline in U.S. non-farm employment figures, raising concerns about the U.S. economy and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 10Y/2Y U.S. Treasury yield drop of 10BP/18BP since August [4][12] - Continuous monetary easing is highlighted, with weekly reverse repos exceeding 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive weeks, and a strong inflow into the bond market expected due to anticipated tax incentives [4][12] - Market trading volume remains stable at 1.6 to 1.8 trillion yuan, with financing balances nearing 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust new inflows [4][12] Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **Leading Companies**: Focus on sectors like non-ferrous metals, military industry, and state-owned enterprise restructuring, with PPI hitting a bottom [4][12] 2. **Domestic Innovation**: Anticipation of a recovery in domestic technology and semiconductor sectors, with high utilization rates in domestic foundries and clear expansion trends [5][13] 3. **Global Expansion**: The report discusses the ongoing global expansion of new investments in cultural sectors, gaming, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][14] Market Phases and Performance - Historical analysis indicates that each market cycle sees a flow of new capital from institutional investors to retail investors, with the current phase identified as a second wave of growth [6][14][15] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors across different market phases, noting that technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead in the current second wave of growth [16][30] PPI Trends - The report discusses the PPI cycle, indicating that PPI has reached a bottom and is expected to recover, which aligns with the performance of cyclical sectors [32][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for AIDC power equipment is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing capital expenditure by major cloud service providers, with a projected annual growth rate of 20% from 2025 to 2030 [5][13] - The market space for various AIDC power equipment segments, including dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, HVDC, and solid-state transformers, is estimated to reach significant values by 2030 [12][13] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards domestic companies gaining competitive advantages in the data center sector, with a potential overall value chain transfer to Chinese enterprises [5] AIDC Power Equipment Summary - Recent capital expenditures by North America's four major cloud service providers reached $95 billion in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 66% [5] - The projected global AI computing load from 2025 to 2030 is expected to be 9.7, 15.9, 20.2, 22.3, 23.4, and 24.6 GW respectively, with corresponding AIDC power equipment demand estimated at 29, 48, 60, 67, 70, and 74 GW [5][13] - The market space for dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, HVDC, and solid-state transformers is expected to reach 85, 341, 41, 380, and 239 billion yuan respectively by 2030 [12][13] - Recent performance in the AIDC power equipment sector shows significant increases, with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) rising by 19.7%, server power supplies by 11.3%, and lead-acid batteries by 8.5% [5] - Key companies in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Mingyang Electric, Hezhong Electric, and others [5] Grid Industry Summary - In June 2025, the total investment in national power engineering reached 105.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [31] - The total investment in national grid engineering for the first half of 2025 was 291.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [32] - The recent bidding for the State Grid's fourth batch of substation equipment amounted to approximately 12.77 billion yuan, with a cumulative estimated bidding amount for the year reaching 66.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [58] - The grid equipment sector has also seen significant stock performance, with cable components and other equipment rising by 6.8% recently [5] - Key focus areas for the grid industry include high-voltage orders, virtual power plants, and international expansion opportunities [5]

Market Overview - On August 6, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.45% to 3633.99 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.64% to 11177.78 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.66% to 2358.95 points. The total trading volume reached 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The U.S. stock market also saw gains on August 6, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.18% to 44193.12 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.73% to 6345.06 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.21% to 21169.42 points [2][5] - European stock indices all closed higher on August 6, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, the CAC 40 up by 0.18%, and the DAX up by 0.33% [3][4] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as PEEK materials, humanoid robots, and photolithography machines showed significant gains, while traditional Chinese medicine, tourism, and innovative pharmaceuticals faced declines [2] - The main sectors with net inflows included general equipment, automotive parts, and specialized equipment, while the chemical pharmaceuticals sector experienced the largest net outflow [12] Company News - Li Auto, China Automotive Technology and Research Center, and Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor reached a consensus regarding the Li Auto i8 collision test incident, emphasizing the importance of maintaining integrity and avoiding unfair competition in the automotive industry [6] - Biogen announced an expected revenue range of 35.8 billion to 38.1 billion yuan for 2025 [11] - SINO Medical's subsidiary received breakthrough medical device designation from the FDA for a product treating intracranial atherosclerosis, marking a significant milestone [11] Policy and Development Initiatives - The State Grid reported a record high electricity load of 1.233 billion kilowatts from August 4 to 6, reflecting a significant increase from last year's peak [7] - The Shanghai government released a plan to develop the embodied intelligence industry, aiming for a core industry scale of over 50 billion yuan by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a selective recovery in capital expenditures in Europe expected after 2026, driven by energy transition, security demands, and government support [1][2][4]. Core Insights - European capital expenditures as a percentage of sales reached a historical low in 2023, but are projected to rebound selectively post-2026 due to structural factors and government incentives [1][2][4]. - Global capital expenditure growth is expected to be slightly below 5% in 2025, up from 4% in 2024, with large project orders being delayed rather than canceled [1][6]. - Key growth areas identified include data centers, utilities, and defense sectors, driven by electrification, artificial intelligence, and government support [1][7][21]. Summary by Sections Current Investment Trends - European companies have historically focused on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, resulting in lower capital expenditures [2]. - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, there is renewed investment demand in capital-intensive industries driven by themes such as energy transition and digitalization [3][4]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly data centers and semiconductors, has maintained stable growth of over 15% in the past two years [8]. - Utilities, especially in the power grid sector, have shown mid to high single-digit growth, while mining capital expenditures are projected to grow at 7% [8][18]. Future Opportunities - Significant growth is anticipated in data centers, utilities, and defense sectors, with specific investment baskets available for targeted exposure [7][28][32]. - Companies like Schneider and Legrand are highlighted as key players in the data center market, while Atlas Copco is noted for its strong growth potential in the semiconductor sector [17][26]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - Traditional heavy industries and consumer-related sectors are experiencing weaker performance, with food and beverage industries showing below-average prospects [9]. - Tariff issues have impacted large project investment decisions, but resolving these could lead to a resurgence in capital expenditures in 2026 [13][34]. Investment Baskets and Strategies - Various investment baskets are recommended for capital expenditure beneficiaries, including those focused on defense, AI infrastructure, and broader capital spending themes [30][31][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on thematic trends rather than individual company performance in the current economic environment [27].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **polysilicon industry** and its implications for the **photovoltaic (PV) sector** [1][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)** has intensified energy conservation inspections in the polysilicon industry, aiming to lower comprehensive energy consumption standards, which may lead to an increase in polysilicon prices and promote supply-side reforms in the PV industry [1][3]. - The **China Photovoltaic Association** has clarified that work related to polysilicon is progressing steadily, focusing on anti-involution measures and price recovery, which will benefit polysilicon and glass segments significantly [1][6]. - The **price of polysilicon** is a critical indicator for the PV sector, with recent supply-side reforms driving price increases. The current average transaction price of polysilicon has risen, indicating that anti-involution measures are being realized [4][9]. - Despite potential demand declines in the second half of the year due to regulatory impacts, the long-term outlook for global PV penetration remains optimistic, with current levels exceeding 20% [5][7][8]. Additional Important Content - The **component price dynamics** need to address both cost transmission from rising polysilicon prices and profit recovery, with the potential for downstream operators to face challenges due to regulatory impacts [7][8]. - The **auxiliary materials** sector, particularly paste materials, is highlighted as a significant area of focus, while inverters are expected to benefit from developments in energy storage [10]. - The **wind energy sector** shows promising signs, with an increase in bidding prices for onshore wind energy and the commencement of offshore wind projects, indicating improved demand across the supply chain [13]. - **Investment opportunities** are identified in polysilicon, battery components, and silicon wafers, contingent on effective price transmission from components [9][17]. Conclusion - The polysilicon industry is poised for growth due to regulatory support and market dynamics, with significant implications for the broader photovoltaic sector. The focus on energy efficiency and price recovery will be crucial for sustaining long-term growth in this industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AIDC, wind power, photovoltaic, and energy storage sectors, with specific recommendations for leading suppliers in liquid cooling and power segments [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance and upward adjustments in capital expenditures from major overseas CSP companies, indicating robust demand for liquid cooling technologies [5][6][7]. - In the wind power sector, despite a year-on-year decline in July's bidding, the report anticipates stable or even growing installations in 2026, supported by favorable policies and high bidding prices [10][13]. - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are seeing significant policy support aimed at reducing competition and stabilizing prices, with a major procurement initiative launched by China Huadian Group [16][18]. AIDC Sector Summary - Major CSP companies, including Google and Meta, reported Q2 earnings exceeding market expectations, with significant capital expenditure increases, particularly for AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow as data centers increasingly adopt this technology to manage rising power consumption [8][9]. Wind Power Sector Summary - July's bidding results showed a total of 5.5GW, a 46% year-on-year decrease but an 11% increase from the previous month, indicating a potential recovery in the second half of the year [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high bidding prices and the anticipated recovery of bidding volumes following the implementation of provincial policies [13][15]. Photovoltaic & Energy Storage Sector Summary - The report discusses ongoing efforts to combat "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with government meetings focusing on regulating competition and improving procurement processes [16][17]. - A significant procurement of 20GW of photovoltaic components has been initiated, which is expected to influence pricing trends and market stability [18][19]. Electric Grid Sector Summary - The Ya Xia hydropower project is projected to create a demand for approximately 1,800 kilometers of GIL, with a potential market space exceeding 30 billion yuan [19]. - Companies like Samsung Medical are making strides in international markets, with expectations of strong growth in the coming years [20][21]. Lithium Battery Sector Summary - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Defu Technology making significant progress in production capabilities [24][26][28]. - The report notes the increasing commercialization of solid-state batteries, with a focus on overcoming existing technological challenges [25][27]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Sector Summary - The "Hydrogen Action in Jilin" initiative and the launch of the national electric power investment green hydrogen project mark significant advancements in hydrogen technology [40]. - The report highlights the global first demonstration of large-scale green ammonia production, indicating a growing market for hydrogen-based solutions [40].