人民币适度强势
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连平:金融强国建设需要强势人民币| 马年大咖谈
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-02-19 03:32
Core Viewpoint - The future strength of the Renminbi (RMB) is essential for its development into a powerful currency, which is a key element for building a strong financial nation [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of a Strong Currency - A strong currency is crucial for a financial power, characterized by its widespread use in international trade, investment, and as a global reserve currency [2]. - The RMB's moderate strength will facilitate its broader use in global trade and encourage international capital to hold RMB for investments [2]. - A weak currency may lead countries to reduce their holdings of that currency in foreign exchange reserves, while a strong RMB could increase its share in global reserves [2]. Group 2: Financial Institutions - Strong financial institutions are necessary for a financial power, defined by their comprehensive services, high operational efficiency, and strong risk management capabilities [3]. - The current global competitiveness of Chinese financial institutions is relatively weak, partly due to the low global usage of the RMB [3]. - Sustained moderate strength of the RMB could enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese financial institutions by increasing their RMB-denominated assets and liabilities abroad [3]. Group 3: International Financial Centers - A strong international financial center is vital for a financial power, capable of attracting global investors and influencing international pricing systems [4]. - Shanghai's international financial center has not yet reached the level of New York or London, partly due to insufficient foreign participation and the RMB's weaker valuation [4][5]. - Historical evidence suggests that a currency must maintain strength over time to support the development of a leading international financial center [5]. Group 4: Central Banks - A strong central bank is essential for effective monetary policy and macro-prudential management, which helps prevent systemic risks [6]. - A weak currency can hinder the internationalization of the RMB and reduce its acceptance and influence globally [6]. - A relatively strong RMB supports the central bank's functions and enhances the credibility of the currency [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - There are sufficient reasons for the RMB to appreciate moderately, despite pressures from external factors [7]. - The RMB's exchange rate should be based on supply and demand, but policy considerations are also necessary to achieve favorable economic and financial development [7].