它来了!它真的要来了!上证指数即将突破4000点! 这波强势冲刺不仅是资本市场回暖的硬核信号，更让一年前格隆博士的精准预判彻底"封神"，而支撑这 份预判的，正是他立足全球格局与人类进化逻辑的深邃洞察。 2024年12月5日格隆汇第九届全球投资嘉年华上，兼具经济学家深邃洞察与文人温润情怀的格隆博士明 确指出："投资需立足人类进化与全球格局，而非短期波动。据估值模型，2025年上证指数大概率涨 15%以上，站上4000点---这是对中国在人类文明升级中角色的笃定。" 这份理性与感性的融合，让其预判既有数据支撑的严谨，更有文明视角的温度。如今预判渐近兑现，但 市场情绪复杂：指数临关键关口，散户与机构均显犹豫，"最纠结的牛市"成共识。 市场纠结的根源，在于多数人仍困于"区域竞争"视角，忽视其人类进化意义。格隆博士坦言："全球视 野不是看别人做什么，而是看人类需要什么。"中国产业自主发展契合技术普惠、产业链安全、可持续 发展的核心诉求，这种顺应文明趋势的成长才是行情底气——短期板块轮动虽快，长期看契合进化方向 的产业终将获价值认可。 02 经济复苏："新动能"崛起，中国经济的全球文明担当 在格隆博士的投资逻辑中，一个国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 4000 points, signaling a recovery in the capital market and validating previous predictions about China's role in global civilization upgrades [2][15]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is complex, with both retail and institutional investors showing hesitation as the index approaches a critical level, leading to the consensus of a "most conflicted bull market" [2][5]. Industry Competition - China's industrial development has evolved from "following and running alongside" to "civilization empowerment," contributing significantly to global challenges [4][5]. - The rise of domestic enterprises in key sectors reflects a commitment to enhancing human productivity, with over 90% application rate of domestic office software and over 80% for operating systems [4]. Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is characterized by the emergence of "new momentum," with capital markets financing over 600 billion for tech companies, creating a positive cycle of financing, innovation, and upgrading [6]. - The recovery is also supported by favorable external conditions, such as the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a return to cooperation between the US and China [6]. Technological Development - The dual forces of "era compensation" and "era redemption" are driving the A-share market, with technology playing a crucial role in the global technological revolution [7][8]. - The A-share electronic sector has surpassed the banking sector in market capitalization, indicating a significant shift towards digital civilization [8]. Domestic Demand Market - The rise of the domestic demand market represents an upgrade in human consumption civilization, transitioning from material satisfaction to spiritual fulfillment [9][10]. - Data shows that high-end consumption and smart device demand have increased by over 40%, with service consumption surpassing 40% [9]. Market Ecology - The maturity of the capital market is improving, with reforms enhancing listing efficiency and promoting value creation [12][16]. - The presence of independent research institutions like the Gelonghui Research Institute aims to help investors navigate short-term uncertainties and focus on long-term trends [12][13].