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“新大航海”时代,以AI为舟驶向“乐业”彼岸
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 11:16
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need for governments, businesses, and individuals to shift from a survival-oriented mindset focused on "employment" to a development-oriented strategy centered on "creating meaningful work" in the context of the AI-driven technological revolution [1][12]. Group 1: Impact of AI on Employment - AI is reshaping employment through a complex interplay of replacement, enhancement, and creation, with generative AI expected to replace up to 30% of work hours in the U.S. by 2030 [3][4]. - The World Economic Forum predicts that between 2025 and 2030, digital tools will eliminate 9 million jobs, while AI and data processing will cut another 9 million positions, with a net loss of 5 million jobs due to robotics and autonomous systems [3]. - High-skill professionals in STEM, management, law, and healthcare are less likely to be replaced by AI and may even see increased opportunities due to enhanced efficiency [5][6]. Group 2: Job Market Dynamics - Middle-skill jobs, such as clerical and customer service roles, are most vulnerable to AI replacement, leading to significant job restructuring [6][7]. - Low-income and low-skill workers are particularly at risk, lacking the resources and skills to adapt to the changes brought by AI, which could lead to a cycle of skill disconnection and income decline [7][8]. Group 3: Phases of Labor Market Transformation - The transformation of the labor market due to AI will occur in three phases: short-term adjustments (1-5 years), mid-term restructuring (5-25 years), and long-term ecological rebalancing (25 years and beyond) [8][9]. - In the short term, efficiency gains will be realized with minimal job loss, while the mid-term will see significant job transformations, with an estimated 30% of jobs undergoing major changes by 2030 [8][9]. Group 4: Vision for a "Joyful Work" Society - The concept of a "joyful work" society is proposed, where work is not merely a means of survival but a source of meaning and fulfillment, supported by a robust productivity base and equitable distribution mechanisms [12][13]. - The future labor structure will be highly differentiated, with a small number of individuals engaged in innovative tasks, while the majority may engage in non-economic pursuits, supported by technological advancements [13][14]. Group 5: Redistribution Mechanisms - Optimizing secondary distribution through tax reforms and establishing an "AI dividend tax" is suggested to ensure that the benefits of technological advancements are shared across society [15][16]. - Strengthening tertiary distribution is also emphasized, encouraging wealthy individuals to contribute to societal welfare, thereby recalibrating social values from wealth accumulation to public contribution [16][17].