行业关注点正在发生结构性转移：从"能不能做"转向"能否规模化落地"，从单点技术领先转向系 统能力构建。效率提升、基础设施选择、安全与商业回报，正在共同决定下一阶段的技术竞争格 局。 人工智能正推动 IT 职能从"维持运转"转向"效率与创新引擎"。KTLO 占比下降、Agentic Workflows 与 GenAI 加速渗透，标志着 IT 从成本中心向规模化价值交付平台转型。 生成式 AI 开始深入企业 IT 与运营核心，算力与硬件垄断出现松动迹象，量子科技从远期概念进 入国家级战略布局，而 5G 商业化也正式进入以变现能力为导向的"影响期"。 01 AI 驱动 IT 2025年 04 5G 价值兑现 5G 商业化进入"影响期"，行业焦点从网络覆盖转向变现能力。专网、MEC 与 API 等应用开始 释放回报，运营商竞争核心转为"用得好"而非"建得快"。 02 量子战略启航 人工智能：开启企业 IT 效率与创新的新篇章 为什么这项突破性技术使2025年成为"国际量子科学与技术年" 量子科技被正式纳入国家未来产业核心布局，后量子加密、量子计算与量子通信成为长期竞争 力关键。尽管通用量子计算尚未成熟，但安全与特定场 ...

步入2026年，随着宏观经济周期的可能转向、科技革命深化、地缘政治格局演变及监管环境持续优 化，并购活动有望迎来更具结构性的增长机遇。 政策持续优化 在"十五五"规划关于并购重组的政策表述中，对上市公司并购重组的定位更为积极，其中提出要持 续深化并购重组市场改革，支持上市公司转型升级、做优做强，以服务新质生产力发展与培育世界一流 企业。 并且强调，进一步提升制度的包容性与适配度，健全与并购相关的科创企业识别筛选、资产定价等 机制，完善市场生态，促进并购与产业整合的市场化、法治化开展。有市场相关人士表示，2026年政策 环境有望持续优化。 自2024年新"国九条"定调后，"并购六条"（即《关于深化上市公司并购重组市场改革的意见》）及 新版《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》在2025年相继落地，形成了一套鼓励产业并购、提升市场效率 的"政策组合拳"。 2025年，中国并购市场在数量和规模上均实现了显著增长。 Wind数据显示，年内A股公司披露的并购重组事件总计达4044单，其中构成重大资产重组的项目有 147单，同比激增44.12%；且2025年全年重大资产重组上会次数为29次，涉及28家公司，值得注意的 是，这一 ...

2026年启幕"十五五"新篇，全球经济于大国博弈与技术变革中寻求平衡，中国经济则在韧性增长与结构升级中迈向高质量发展。外部环境变幻、内需复苏、 新质生产力培育及金融"五篇大文章"落地，构成新一年核心议题。值此，金融界特别推出《启航·预见2026》，聚集百位首席拆解政策取向、解析产业机 遇、预判资本走势。 本文作者：汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国区首席投资总监 匡正 展望2026年，全球投资市场将受益于人工智能（AI）技术的规模化应用所带动的投资浪潮的延续、生产力的跃升以及新产品的持续落地，这将不断驱动企 业盈利稳健增长。 我们预计，中国将继续推出经济刺激政策，涵盖提振消费、改善民生和稳定房地产市场等举措。其中，"反内卷"政策有望提升企业利润率，而更多政策将着 眼于实现科技自立自强战略。我们对中国内地股票市场采取杠铃策略，维持科技板块和高息优质股的布局。该策略既能配合相关政策方向，也可应对来自海 外市场的挑战。 从区域市场来看，亚洲市场中，除了科技领域，整体消费在外部不确定性升温之际，仍继续受益于提振内需的政策措施，而医疗创新的突破与估值优势也为 医疗健康行业创造有利的条件。在北美，尤其是美国市场，制造业的回流趋势 ...

政府、企业与个人都应未雨绸缪，从"谋就业"的生存型思维，转向"创乐业"的发展型战略。 十五世纪，人类驾着帆船穿越惊涛骇浪，用罗盘和勇气打破了大陆之间的隔绝；今天，我们正驾驶着由 AI驱动的"方舟"，驶向未知的海域。这个时代，我们称之为"新大航海"时代，整个文明加速前行，生产 逻辑、个体价值和宏观格局正在深刻重构。 以人工智能为核心的技术革命带来的生产力进步对生产关系产生了深度重塑，就业革命正在发生。自 ChatGPT横空出世，人工智能不再只是实验室里的技术奇观，它已走进办公室、工厂、医院和课堂，开 始重构每一个普通人的工作方式。AI既不是简单的"岗位杀手"，也不是万能的"生产力救星"，它的影响 是复杂的、分层的、不对称的：它既替代着标准化、重复性的任务，也在不断拓展人类的能力边界，推 动"人机协同"成为主流工作模式，它也在创造新职业，带来了对"什么是工作""如何工作""谁在工作""为 何工作"的系统性重定义。 纵观历史，技术进步的红利往往不会自动实现普惠共享，反而加剧不平等。同样，AI对就业的影响不 是简单的岗位增减，而是呈现出结构性、不对称的趋势。技术进步不应是少数人的盛宴、多数人的挑 战，而应成为每一位劳 ...

近日，马斯克断言美国经济将迎来两位数甚至三位数的"宇宙大爆发"，仿佛AI一夜之间就能点石成金。听着让人热血沸腾，可我们得把脚踩回地面。历史 的经验告诉我们，经济规律不喜欢被"速成"。不妨看看真正掌控美国经济"油门"和"刹车"的人怎么说。 掌管美联储的那些官员们，在三月对经济前景做了评估。他们对未来几年美国经济增长的预测中值，稳稳地落在1.8%附近，和翻倍的想象差了不止一个 太平洋。国际货币基金组织最新的预测，虽然有所上调，但也就是从1.8%到2%的水平。这些数字不是泼冷水，它们代表了一种审慎的现实。过去几十年 美国GDP能达到两位数的增长，几乎都是经济从深坑中猛烈反弹的短暂现象，长期维持就是个神话。 一个尖锐的问题正摆在我们面前：这场盛宴，到底是谁在狂欢？现在的情况是，钱像洪水一样涌入了数据中心、GPU芯片和核电站。宾夕法尼亚州一个州 就吸引了超过900亿美元的投资，从前的钢铁厂正在变成巨大的算力工厂。然而，硬币的另一面却有些冰冷。哈佛大学的经济学家发现，今年上半年美国 经济的增长，几乎全靠数据中心投资在硬撑，其他领域的贡献微乎其微。这就像一个人只锻炼一条胳膊，看起来强壮，实则失衡。 更让人担忧的是"烧钱"与 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on the processing of unstructured data, which constitutes about 90% of information within enterprises, significantly enhancing efficiency and understanding of this data [1][2][5]. Group 1: AI and Unstructured Data - AI's greatest value lies in its ability to process unstructured data, which has historically been underutilized in enterprises [1][2]. - Unstructured data includes documents, contracts, product specifications, financial records, marketing assets, and videos, while structured data only accounts for about 10% of enterprise information [2][5]. - Generative AI allows for interaction with unstructured data, transforming it into a valuable resource that can be accessed by anyone in the organization [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Company Examples - Companies like Otter and Glean are leveraging AI to automate workflows and enhance data processing capabilities, with Otter achieving over $100 million in ARR and Glean surpassing $200 million in ARR [9][10][14]. - The rapid growth of AI products targeting unstructured data processing indicates a significant market trend, with some companies experiencing tenfold growth in ARR within a short period [11][14]. - The need for AI solutions tailored to specific business environments is highlighted, as many existing AI technologies are based on public internet data and do not understand unique business operations [10].

Group 1: Aerospace Industry Development in Shanghai - Shanghai government is accelerating the development of the aerospace industry, focusing on satellite manufacturing and commercial operations, with financial support of up to 15% of total investment, capped at 50 million yuan [1] - The government encourages the large-scale application of satellite internet technology, offering one-time rewards of up to 10 million yuan for companies providing value-added services in communication, navigation, and remote sensing [1] - Support is also extended for satellite internet constellation construction, with a one-time reward of 50 million yuan for companies obtaining satellite communication business licenses [1] Group 2: Low-altitude Economy in Guangdong - Guangdong has released "Twelve Measures" to support the low-altitude economy, encouraging banks and insurance institutions to develop targeted financial products covering the entire lifecycle of low-altitude economic activities [2] - Financial institutions are guided to support upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain, leveraging core enterprise data to enhance services [2] - The measures aim to bolster low-altitude economic clusters and innovation platforms at both national and provincial levels [2] Group 3: Growth of Convertible Bonds in China - UBS reports that the issuance of offshore convertible bonds by Chinese companies has reached record levels this year, driven by favorable stock market conditions and lower financing costs [3] - If the market remains positive, the issuance volume is expected to continue growing next year, particularly among technology companies [3] - Funds raised are primarily allocated for AI research and development, business expansion, and overseas growth [3] Group 4: 6G Technology Development in Shanghai - Shanghai is establishing a national 6G comprehensive testing base to promote the research and development of 6G technology, including standard formulation and application scenarios [4] - Financial support of up to 30% of total investment, capped at 30 million yuan, will be provided for these initiatives [4] Group 5: Global Generative AI Spending Forecast - Counterpoint Research forecasts that global spending on generative AI will grow from 225 billion yuan in 2023 to 699 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [5] - The AI dialogue platform segment is expected to experience the fastest growth, with personal assistant AI and content generation tools also projected to expand significantly [5] - By 2030, the number of monthly active users for global AI dialogue platforms is anticipated to exceed 5 billion [5] Group 6: Breakthrough in Superconducting Magnetic Levitation - A Chinese research team has set a world record by accelerating a ton-class test vehicle to 700 kilometers per hour in two seconds during magnetic levitation experiments [6] - This achievement marks a significant advancement in the field of ultra-high-speed magnetic levitation, providing new methods for aerospace launch and testing [6] - The breakthrough is expected to contribute to the development of China's aerospace and rail transportation sectors [6] Group 7: Hainan Free Trade Port's Initial Week Performance - During the first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure, over 400 million yuan worth of "zero tariff" goods were imported [7] - The number of newly registered foreign trade enterprises in Hainan increased by 2.3 times year-on-year, reflecting the positive impact of the free trade policies [8] - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan saw significant growth, with sales reaching 1.1 billion yuan and a 54.9% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts [8] Group 8: Asset Management Standards Released - The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved four national standards for asset management, focusing on digital transformation and cultural digital assets [11] - These standards aim to guide organizations in enhancing their asset management digitalization efforts, addressing issues such as inconsistent conceptual understanding and unclear focus areas [11]

麦肯锡全球资深董事合伙人、 中国区金融机构咨询业务负责人周宁人 本文系转载内容，原文2025年12月22日首发于南方周末APP，作者为南方周末研究员张文景。本文已获南方周 末授权，未经许可不得转载。 虽然越来越多的企业开始使用AI，但真正规模化部署依然稀少，真正跑通业务流程的企业 是少数派。 不少金融机构反馈AI应用效果不达预期，投入产出比不高。这种现象的根本原因在于金融 业对AI应用尚处于尝试阶段，还未真正打开业务流程，重塑作业模式。 展望未来，真正的竞争力，不在于是否引入AI，而在于是否能重构组织，把人和AI放进同 一套流程。 未来的工作范式将是人类、AI智能体与机器人三者之间的深度协作。 南方周末研究员 张文景 这些冷与热在麦肯锡公司2025年的相关多篇报告中得以揭示。这一年，麦肯锡公司发布《麦肯锡2025技 术趋势展望》（即《Technology Trends Outlook 2025》）、《2025麦肯锡AI应用现状调研》（即《The State of AI in 2025》）等多篇报告。其中，《2025麦肯锡AI应用现状调研》就AI的运用等相关话题调查 了全球各行业近2000家组织。 围绕上述市场 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of AI technology is fundamentally reshaping the logic of entrepreneurship, transitioning the minimum viable unit from "teams" to "individuals," leading to the emergence of the One Person Company (OPC) paradigm [1] - The Yangtze River Delta region is experiencing a concentrated regional acceleration in OPC development, with Shanghai leading, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, reflecting a shift in local government strategies towards supporting small and micro enterprises and individual innovation [1] Group 1: Early Adopters - The "super individual 288" initiative in Shanghai Lingang and the establishment of the OPC service alliance in Suzhou are key developments in the early adopter camp, positioning the Yangtze River Delta as a leader in the national OPC economy [2] - Shanghai's Lingang initiated the "Maker 12 Policies" to create a low-threshold entrepreneurial environment, further enhanced by the "super individual 288" plan focusing on eight high-potential sectors [2][3] - The "OPC Development Action Plan" released in December aims to create a comprehensive support system for entrepreneurs, emphasizing connectivity, cost efficiency, opportunities, convenience, and community [3] Group 2: Jiangsu's Systematic Advancement - Jiangsu's abundant computing power, data resources, and diverse application scenarios provide fertile ground for OPC development, with a focus on creating supportive ecosystems for talent and innovation [6] - Suzhou's establishment of the OPC service alliance and the launch of 20 specialized OPC communities demonstrate a systematic approach to building an OPC ecosystem, with clear quantitative goals for community and enterprise development by 2028 [4][6] Group 3: Regional Developments - Nanjing is adopting a differentiated layout for OPC communities, with initiatives like the "Qin Cheng OPC Community" and partnerships with major tech firms to provide resources and support for individual entrepreneurs [7] - Wuxi is driving OPC community development through policy initiatives and the establishment of multiple OPC communities, focusing on creating a supportive environment for startups [8] - Changzhou is launching its first international OPC community to facilitate global collaboration and innovation, while other cities in Jiangsu are rapidly following suit to fill regional gaps [9] Group 4: Zhejiang and Anhui's Emerging Strategies - Zhejiang's early exploration of OPC ecosystems, particularly in Hangzhou, focuses on providing unconditional startup funding and fostering a flexible and vertically integrated operational model [10] - Anhui is beginning to explore OPC development through initiatives like the Hefei Shushan AI Valley incubator, which aims to support tech startups and high-level talent with comprehensive services [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust standard system in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to support high-quality development and enhance global competitiveness through regional collaboration and international standardization efforts [1][4]. Group 1: Standard System Development - The Greater Bay Area has jointly announced 262 "Bay Area Standards" covering 36 fields, including transportation, water conservancy, traditional Chinese medicine, green ecology, and elderly care, creating a positive ecosystem driven by government guidance, market leadership, and collaboration among the three regions [1]. - A focus on emerging industries and future sectors is essential to build a forward-looking standard system that guides industrial upgrades and provides regulatory support, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital economy sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Internationalization and Regional Collaboration - The article discusses the need for a dual empowerment mechanism of "standard internationalization + regional collaboration" to enhance global rule-making power, advocating for the integration of Bay Area standards with international standards [4][5]. - Strengthening regional collaboration and establishing a multi-level international cooperation network is crucial, including standard mutual recognition mechanisms with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [5]. Group 3: Implementation and Governance - A "technology empowerment + governance innovation" framework is proposed to ensure effective implementation of standards, utilizing advanced technologies like big data and artificial intelligence for real-time monitoring and evaluation [6][7]. - The establishment of incentive mechanisms for enterprises adopting Bay Area standards is recommended, including tax benefits and funding support, to encourage compliance and participation in standard formulation [7].