Core Viewpoint - The piglet prices in China have shown a slight increase due to strong demand for restocking among farmers, although they remain lower than the same period last year [1] Price Trends - The average price of piglets in the first week of January was 23.45 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 28.4% [1] - Prices increased in 23 provinces including Liaoning, Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Jiangxi, while 5 provinces such as Tianjin, Guizhou, Qinghai, Guangdong, and Yunnan saw price declines, with Ningxia remaining stable [1] Regional Price Differences - The highest piglet prices were recorded in South China at 27.58 yuan per kilogram, while North China had the lowest prices at 21.72 yuan per kilogram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of piglets is expected to rise after the Spring Festival due to increased demand for restocking, despite current low prices and ongoing losses in the breeding sector [2][14]. Price Trends - In the fourth quarter, the average price of 7 kg piglets dropped from 220.17 CNY per head on September 30 to 165.67 CNY per head on October 17, marking a 69.92% decline from the peak of 550.83 CNY per head on April 4 [15]. - By late December, the average price rebounded to 216.92 CNY per head, but remained significantly lower than the previous year [15][19]. - The price touched a low of 290.00 CNY per head in October 2024 before rebounding, with prices mostly above 300 CNY per head in the fourth quarter [17]. Sales and Profitability - The sales of piglets have been consistently unprofitable, with an average loss of 75.98 CNY per head in the fourth quarter, which improved slightly to 58.08 CNY per head by December 22 [19]. - The breeding sector is cautious about restocking due to low price expectations post-Spring Festival and increased disease occurrences, particularly in northern regions [18][21]. Future Outlook - The demand for restocking is anticipated to increase significantly after the Spring Festival, with expectations that prices could rise to over 300 CNY per head by late February [24]. - The seasonal characteristics suggest a potential price peak of 360-400 CNY per head in the first half of 2026, driven by limited supply and increased restocking intentions [24].

Core Insights - The domestic price of 7 kg piglets experienced a significant decline, with a maximum drop of over 48% in Q3 2025, attributed to an oversupply of piglets due to increased breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1][2] - The price of 7 kg piglets fell from 431.67 CNY per head at the beginning of July to 220.17 CNY per head by the end of September, dropping below the industry average cost line of 280 CNY per head [1][2] - The market is expected to see a rebound in piglet prices in November and December, potentially reaching 180-220 CNY per head, as the supply-demand balance begins to stabilize [1][5] Supply Side Dynamics - The continuous increase in breeding sow inventory has set the stage for price declines, with a recorded increase of 0.58%, 0.71%, and 1.07% in breeding sow inventory from December 2024 to February 2025 [2] - Enhanced production efficiency among breeding sows has led to a higher output of piglets, exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market [2] Demand Side Challenges - The demand for piglets has been significantly weakened since late July, with piglet fattening operations entering a loss phase, resulting in an average loss of 278.87 CNY per head by September 30 [2][3] - The historical data indicates that the period from February to March is typically a low season for pork consumption, further reducing demand for piglets [3] Q4 Price Forecast - The price of piglets is anticipated to follow a "first decline, then rebound" trajectory in Q4, with October expected to continue the downward trend due to high supply levels [4] - The supply of weaned piglets is projected to increase in October, maintaining the supply-demand imbalance and exerting downward pressure on prices [4] Potential for Price Recovery - A rebound in prices is expected in November and December, coinciding with a seasonal recovery in demand and potential restocking by farmers [5] - The impact of winter weather on piglet survival rates may also contribute to a tighter supply, supporting price recovery [5]

Core Insights - The average price of piglets in China has reached a new high, marking the highest level in seven and a half months, with a national average price of 39.57 yuan per kilogram in the first week of May, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous week and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] Price Trends - Prices of piglets are showing mixed trends across different regions, with 14 provinces including Xinjiang, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Qinghai experiencing price increases, while 13 provinces such as Guizhou, Hubei, Shanxi, Henan, and Chongqing saw price declines [1] - The highest prices are recorded in the North China region at 41.85 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest prices are in the Southwest region at 37.24 yuan per kilogram [1] Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in the sentiment towards restocking among farmers, with some regions showing strong enthusiasm for restocking, contributing to the fluctuations in piglet prices [1]