热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯生猪市场分析师朱泽坤 【导语】四季度仔猪价格先降后涨，但受育肥亏损及猪病的影响，养殖端补栏积极性相对有限，即使仔 猪价格长期低于成本线支撑下，养殖端补栏需求并未显著提升，导致7公斤仔猪价格仅小幅反弹，较 2024年同期显著下降。考虑春节假期后下游补栏需求显著提升，预计3-6月份仔猪价格有上涨空间。 四季度仔猪价格反弹幅度有限 进入四季度，仔猪价格降后反弹，全国7公斤仔猪均价由9月30日的220.17元/头降至10月17日的165.67 元/头，较年内高点4月4日的550.83元/头降幅69.92%。10月下旬开始，仔猪价格有所反弹，截至12月19 日，全国7公斤仔猪均价为216.92元/头。 2024年7公斤仔猪价格于10月份触底达到290.00元/头，后期快速反弹，四季度仔猪价格多数时间内处于 300元/头以上，同时11月上旬达到428.89元/头，反弹幅度相对较大。而2025年四季度仔猪价格触底后虽 有反弹，但反弹幅度相对有限，仔猪销售仍处于亏损状态。 仔猪销售始终处于亏损状态 一方面，四季度处于传统的仔猪补栏淡季，10-12月份补 ...

Core Insights - The domestic price of 7 kg piglets experienced a significant decline, with a maximum drop of over 48% in Q3 2025, attributed to an oversupply of piglets due to increased breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1][2] - The price of 7 kg piglets fell from 431.67 CNY per head at the beginning of July to 220.17 CNY per head by the end of September, dropping below the industry average cost line of 280 CNY per head [1][2] - The market is expected to see a rebound in piglet prices in November and December, potentially reaching 180-220 CNY per head, as the supply-demand balance begins to stabilize [1][5] Supply Side Dynamics - The continuous increase in breeding sow inventory has set the stage for price declines, with a recorded increase of 0.58%, 0.71%, and 1.07% in breeding sow inventory from December 2024 to February 2025 [2] - Enhanced production efficiency among breeding sows has led to a higher output of piglets, exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market [2] Demand Side Challenges - The demand for piglets has been significantly weakened since late July, with piglet fattening operations entering a loss phase, resulting in an average loss of 278.87 CNY per head by September 30 [2][3] - The historical data indicates that the period from February to March is typically a low season for pork consumption, further reducing demand for piglets [3] Q4 Price Forecast - The price of piglets is anticipated to follow a "first decline, then rebound" trajectory in Q4, with October expected to continue the downward trend due to high supply levels [4] - The supply of weaned piglets is projected to increase in October, maintaining the supply-demand imbalance and exerting downward pressure on prices [4] Potential for Price Recovery - A rebound in prices is expected in November and December, coinciding with a seasonal recovery in demand and potential restocking by farmers [5] - The impact of winter weather on piglet survival rates may also contribute to a tighter supply, supporting price recovery [5]

仔猪价格涨跌互现 周均价刷新7个半月高点 金十期货5月13日讯，养殖端补栏情绪分化，部分地区补栏积极性依然较强，国内仔猪价格涨跌互现， 周均价进一步攀升，刷新7个半月高点。据对全国500个县集贸市场和采集点的监测，5月第1周全国仔猪 平均价格39.57元/公斤，比前一周上涨0.1%，刷新7个半月高点，同比上涨3.8%。新疆、浙江、上海、 天津、青海等14个省份仔猪价格上涨，贵州、湖北、山西、河南、重庆等13个省份仔猪价格下跌，内 蒙、湖南价格持平。华北地区价格较高，为41.85元/公斤；西南地区价格较低，为37.24元/公斤。 （农 业农村部） ...