Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations may experience fluctuations, and it is essential to focus on domestic economic management to mitigate the impacts of tariffs [1][2][15]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Strategy - Tariffs are a significant policy tool for the Trump administration, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit and promoting the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. [3][4]. - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2024, indicating a long-term trend of increasing trade imbalance since 1980 [3]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP is expected to remain low, with manufacturing value added accounting for only 9.9% of GDP and manufacturing employment at 8.08% of total employment by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 52.2 in April, reflecting a significant decline in public sentiment regarding the economic outlook since Trump's inauguration [3]. - Inflation expectations among consumers have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations recorded at 6.5% and 4.4%, respectively, in April, marking substantial increases from previous months [4]. Group 3: Economic Challenges and Recommendations - There are five key areas where the Chinese economy needs improvement: declining export growth, weakening real estate transactions, low price levels, high consumer replacement rates, and a disconnect between unemployment rates and unemployment insurance expenditures [5][6][7][9][13]. - The real estate market shows signs of weakness, with a year-on-year decline in transactions of 21% and 10% in major cities during late April [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline due to various factors, including real estate chain contraction and oversupply in new production capacities [9]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the job market and improve employment rates, especially for recent graduates, it is recommended to support specific industries and provide tax incentives for companies that commit to maintaining or increasing employment [14]. - The government should consider implementing "super-normal" policies, including timely and substantial economic stimulus measures, to address the challenges posed by tariffs and economic pressures [19][20].