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策略周评20250803:十五五规划产业布局猜想【勘误版】
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-03 07:37
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic development amidst external uncertainties, suggesting that the core idea of "concentrating efforts on one's own affairs" will continue to be reflected in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to include significant themes such as the construction of a national unified market, technological innovation leading to new productive forces, digital economy and artificial intelligence, and high-quality urban development [4][5] - The report predicts that the focus on "anti-involution" in market competition will be a key aspect of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on optimizing market competition order and regulating local investment attraction [5] Group 2 - The urbanization strategy is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in existing urban areas, as indicated by recent central government meetings [6] - Technological innovation is expected to lead the development of new productive forces, moving away from traditional industries and focusing on advanced production factors [7] - The integration of artificial intelligence with the digital economy is anticipated to be a major theme in the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the role of AI in driving high-quality economic development [10] Group 3 - The report highlights the need for enhancing domestic demand, particularly in the context of improving income distribution and social security systems, which are expected to release significant consumption potential [11] - Large-scale infrastructure projects are likely to be prioritized in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with specific mentions of major water conservancy, transportation, and energy projects [12][30] - The necessity of ensuring supply chain security and addressing technological bottlenecks in key areas such as semiconductor manufacturing is emphasized, with expectations for continued support in these sectors in the upcoming plan [13] Group 4 - The report suggests that the 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on the development of future industries, including advanced manufacturing, new materials, and future energy technologies [25][27] - Cultural development and enhancing national cultural soft power are expected to be significant components of the 15th Five-Year Plan, aligning with the goal of building a "cultural power" by 2035 [19] - The construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and strengthening multilateral diplomatic relations are anticipated to be included in the 15th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [20]