Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][22]. Core Insights - The change in subsidy policies has led to the disappearance of the tail effect in Q4 2025, resulting in a reduction of demand overdraw for 2026. In December 2025, the number of insured vehicles was 2.278 million, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 13.6% month-on-month. The total number of insured vehicles for the year reached 23.047 million, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 54.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Subsidy Policies - The report highlights that the changes in subsidy policies have caused consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in demand overdraw for 2026. The expectation is that as replacement subsidy application channels open, pent-up demand will materialize, and the domestic terminal market will trend towards "price increase and stable volume" [4][7]. 2. PHEV Market Share Tracking - The focus is on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as the "mid-level assisted driving equity" leads to share differentiation. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring configuration adjustments and terminal discount changes to understand further market share differentiation [9][16]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The report notes that the passenger vehicle inventory saw a slight reduction in December 2025, with an estimated 1.5 million vehicles in demand waiting to be fulfilled. The overall industry theme for 2025 was "emerging from deflation," with a judgment of "stable volume and slow price increase" being validated. The outlook for 2026 remains "price increase and stable volume," differing from market consensus due to regulatory changes and risk-return assessments [16][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, and others, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile. In the commercial vehicle chain, recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [17].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业周报 乘用车库存 25 年 12 月小幅去化，静待观望需求落地 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-18 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 11/25 01/26 汽车 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]张力月 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040004 | | | 021-38003727 | | | zhangliyue@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 闫俊刚 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 | | | 021-38003682 | | | yanjungang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈飞彤 | | | SAC 执证号：S02605 ...