摘要 吉利汽车 2025 年上半年销量达 141 万辆，二季度经营性利润约 31 亿 人民币，上半年累计约 66 亿人民币，符合市场预期。 吉利汽车上调全年销量预期至 300 万辆，预计全年经营性利润可达 140 亿人民币，主要受益于下半年新车型发布及高端化产品放量。 吉利燃油车在萎缩市场中逆势增长，出口预计达 45 万辆，俄罗斯市场 占比约 20%，受益于购置税政策，预计未来保持增长。 银河系列产品表现良好，银河 M9 订单超预期，心愿车型销量稳定，星 耀 8 以 A 级价格定位 B 级插混车型，月销破万。 吉利发布多款高端 SUV，包括银河 M9、领克 900 和极氪 9X，分别定 位于不同价格带，明确大六座 SUV 市场策略。 吉利整合极氪和领克，通过流程、采购、研发融合控本降费，极氪一季 度扭亏为盈，计划 9 月将极氪并入上市公司主体。 极氪品牌 001 和 007 销量稳定，9X 预计 8 月底预售，全年预计销量接 近 30 万辆；领克品牌将推出 EMP 中大型轿车领克 10 及纯电产品 Z10 和 Z20。 吉利汽车 20250824 Q&A 吉利汽车在当前行业变革期的表现如何？ 吉利汽车在当前行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] - The company’s average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 95,500 yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 16.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company’s net profit per vehicle was 4,724 yuan, an increase of 37% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 1.503 million units, with a target increase to 3 million units for the full year [1][2] - The sales of fuel vehicles grew to 684,000 units, while pure electric vehicle sales reached 511,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 173% [2] - The company’s export sales in the first half of 2025 were 184,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [1] Group 3: Product Development and Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product offerings by organizing into five major battle zones and customizing products by region [1] - The launch of multiple "9" series models aims to penetrate the high-end market, with the Lynk & Co 900 model showing promising sales [3] - The company’s upcoming models, including the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9, are expected to improve brand recognition in high-end intelligent driving solutions [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 15.96 billion yuan, 16.70 billion yuan, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating despite the competitive challenges it faces in the market [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from marketing reforms and new vehicle launches, which will enhance sales market share [2][11] - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.50 RMB or 24.70 HKD [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3,806 million RMB in 2023A to 20,314 million RMB in 2027E, with a significant increase of 100.8% in 2024A [6][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5,308 million RMB in 2023A, increasing to 21,451 million RMB by 2027E, with a notable growth of 213.3% in 2024A [6][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.7% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 4.7% to 4.8% during the same period [6][12] Market Position and Sales Performance - In July, Geely's total sales reached 237,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 120.4% [11] - The company's market share is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of approximately 11% in the first half of 2025, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The Galaxy series is showing strong sales performance, with July sales of 95,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 469.0% [11]

Group 1 - The company sold 236,000 vehicles in June, representing a year-over-year increase of 42.1% [1] - For the first half of the year, the company achieved total vehicle sales of 1.41 million, a year-over-year increase of 47.4% [2] - The company raised its annual sales target to 3 million vehicles, which is a 38% increase compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The company held a technology launch event for the Zeekr 9X on July 9, introducing the world's first full-stack 900V high-voltage hybrid architecture, SEA-S [1][3] - The Zeekr 9X is expected to start pre-sales at the end of August and is positioned as the brand's flagship hybrid model [3] - The Zeekr 9X features a maximum engine power of 205 kW and a thermal efficiency exceeding 46%, with a 20%-80% battery recharge time of only 9 minutes [3] Group 3 - The company expects to see significant profit growth, with net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 13.84 billion, 17.9 billion, and 22.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year increases of 47%, 30%, and 24% [1][3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 8.6, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a recommendation to "buy" [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International indicates that Geely Automobile (00175) is expected to raise its annual sales target due to the launch of significant new models from Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr in the second half of the year, which could act as a catalyst for the stock price [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In May, Geely's total wholesale volume reached 235,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, setting a historical record [2] - The cumulative wholesale volume from January to May was 1.17 million units, up 49% year-on-year, achieving approximately 43% of the annual sales target of 2.71 million units, with potential for exceeding the target [2] - In May, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles (NEVs) was 138,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 178% and a month-on-month increase of 9.9%, significantly outpacing the industry growth [2] - NEVs accounted for 58.7% of total sales in May, up 22.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cumulative NEV wholesale from January to May reached 602,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137%, representing 51% of total sales [2] - The high-end fuel vehicle, China Star, saw sales of 87,000 units in May, with the high-end series achieving a year-on-year growth of 21% [2] Group 2: Product Launches and Innovations - The company plans to launch multiple significant new models in the second half of the year, including the Galaxy A7 mid-size sedan and a rugged SUV, enhancing its product matrix [3] - The high-end flagship SUV Lynk & Co 900 had nearly 5,600 units delivered in May, with a strong order backlog, and the Lynk & Co hybrid Z10 is set to launch in the second half [3] - Zeekr's new model 007GT is performing well, with additional luxury SUVs set to launch in Q3 and Q4 [3] - The fuel vehicle Star series is leveraging the new energy platform for shared benefits, with the Star Yue L model performing well since its March launch [3] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas layout, with the first EX5 produced at the Indonesian KD factory and plans for a light asset model in Latin America and Central Asia [3] - The Galaxy E5 and Star Wish are set to enter multiple markets in the second quarter, with an acceleration of overseas expansion planned for the second half of the year [3]

Group 1 - Chery Group's new energy vehicle sales in May reached 63,169 units, with iCAR brand sales at 5,899 units and Zhijie brand sales at 5,000 units [2][4][6] - Chery is expected to be the top exporter of Chinese automobiles by 2025, leveraging a diverse range of technologies including pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen energy to compete in the market [4] - The new Geely Galaxy A7, a B-class plug-in hybrid sedan, was officially unveiled on June 3, featuring a wheelbase of 2,845mm and a comprehensive range of over 2,100 km [5][8] Group 2 - NIO reported its Q1 financial results with revenue of 12.03 billion yuan, a gross margin of 10.2%, and vehicle deliveries of 42,094 units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [9][10] - The second quarter delivery guidance for NIO is set between 72,000 to 75,000 units, indicating a strong confidence in the brand's performance and upcoming models [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a 54% year-over-year increase in March automobile sales, selling 232,000 vehicles, which outperformed its peers. Cumulatively, from January to March, the company sold 704,000 vehicles, a 48% increase year-over-year. Electric vehicles accounted for 339,000 units sold, representing 48.2% of total sales, marking an 18.2 percentage point increase from the previous year [7][9]. - The company is accelerating its electrification transformation, with competitive products across various price segments. The integration of its brands is expected to reduce costs, and the company has a technological edge that may contribute to future profit growth. The impact of U.S. tariffs on the company is expected to be minimal as its products have not yet entered the U.S. market [7][9]. - The company anticipates significant improvements in its 2024 performance, with projected revenues of 240.2 billion RMB, a 34% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 16.6 billion RMB, a 213% increase. The sales target for 2025 is set at 2.71 million vehicles, a 24.5% increase, with electric vehicle sales expected to reach 1.5 million units, a 69% increase [9][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current H-share price of HKD 13.42 and a market capitalization of 135.24 billion RMB. The stock has seen a 12-month high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [2][3]. Recent Performance - The company reported a significant increase in sales, with March sales showing a 54% year-over-year growth. The sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are gaining traction, contributing to the overall sales growth [7][9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 13.2 billion RMB, 17.5 billion RMB, and 21.8 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 32%, and 24.5% [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Geely's strategic response to the competitive landscape of intelligent driving technology, emphasizing its unified approach through the "Qianli Haohan" system across all brands, contrasting with BYD's rapid rollout of intelligent driving versions across its product lines [2][12]. Summary by Sections Unified Intelligent Driving Strategy - Geely announced the unification of its intelligent driving solutions under the "Qianli Haohan" system, which is divided into five levels: H1, H3, H5, H7, and H9, aiming for a comprehensive rollout of features like parking assistance and navigation by March [3][4]. - The H1 level features a sensor configuration of 10V5R and a minimum computing power exceeding 100 TOPs, enabling high-speed navigation and automatic parking [4]. - The H3 level includes 11V3R sensors, supporting high-speed navigation and memory parking capabilities [4]. - The H5 level adds a laser radar to the H3 configuration, enhancing its capabilities for urban navigation and memory parking [4]. - The H7 level is similar to H5 but upgrades to parking valet features, while the H9 targets L3 level autonomous driving with advanced sensor configurations [4]. Competitive Positioning - Geely's approach contrasts with BYD's strategy of rapidly updating all mainstream models to "intelligent driving versions," as Geely opts for a more measured rollout, focusing on new models first and gradually updating older ones [13][21]. - The company is also integrating AI technologies into its intelligent driving strategy, enhancing capabilities in human-machine interaction and decision-making [6][8]. Resource Allocation and Development - Geely has established a joint venture to enhance its AI capabilities, which includes significant resources like the Xingrui Intelligent Computing Center with a computing power of 23.5 EFLOPS, the highest among domestic automakers [10][9]. - The integration of the Zeekr brand into Geely's structure aims to streamline development and reduce redundancy in intelligent driving technology [20][22]. Market Dynamics - The article highlights the ongoing price competition in the automotive market, with Geely and BYD both engaging in price reductions to maintain market share, indicating that having intelligent driving capabilities is becoming essential for competitiveness [18][17]. - Geely's strategy reflects a balance between technological advancement and market timing, as it seeks to avoid hasty decisions that could undermine its product lineup [21][23].