机构：国金证券 研究员：姚遥 业绩点评： 11月17日，吉利汽车发布25Q3财报，其中： 1、营收：Q3公司共计销售新车76.1万辆，同/环比+42.5%/+8.1%： 总计营收891.9亿元，同/环比+47.7%/+14.7%：我们计算Q3单车ASP11.7万元，同/环比+3.7%/+6.1%： 25Q1Q3公司共计销售新车216.9万辆，同比+45.6%，营收2394.8亿元，同比+26.4%，单车ASP11万元， 同比-13.2%； 行业竞争加剧，市场需求不及预期。 1、Q3公司业绩表现稳健，其中：1）车型结构好转，新能源拉动下出口逐渐恢复，同时Q2新车如领克 900、银河星耀8等均处中位数之上，带动单车ASP提升：2）但由于新能源车占比提升、Q3低毛利银河 A7等上市、且新能源毛利率低于燃油车，导致毛利率环比Q2小有下滑，体现为单车成本提升：3）公司 费用依旧稳健，费用率环比均下降：最终共同拉动公司Q3业绩表现稳健。 其中值得注意的是，在吉利银河销量表现强势下，规模效应和盈利结构均向上，单车利润也有所提升， 符合我们此前的量一价一利齐升的推断。我们重申，公司在低成本路线下面对市场竞争激烈和价格战， 是 ...

Core Viewpoint - 吉利汽车 reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 吉利汽车 achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.2 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company sold 760,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Cost Management - Sales expense ratio in Q3 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Management expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - R&D expense ratio was 4.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Outlook - 吉利汽车 is launching a new product cycle with competitive models such as 银河A7 and 银河星耀8, which have achieved monthly sales of over 13,000 and 10,000 units respectively [2] - The company expects to maintain strong sales momentum, with projected total sales of 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year increases of 40%, 23%, and 8% respectively [2] - The introduction of high-end models is expected to significantly enhance the company's product structure and profitability [2] Group 4: Profitability Forecast - Projected net profit margins for 2025-2027 are 5.2%, 6.0%, and 6.4%, with attributable net profits of 17.8 billion, 24 billion, and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [3] - The core net profit estimates for the same period are 14.3 billion, 23 billion, and 26.2 billion yuan [3] - The company is considered a top pick for the upcoming recovery in the automotive sector due to its low valuation and strong growth potential [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendation - Based on the strong new product cycle and improved product structure, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards [3] - The target price for 吉利汽车 is set at 26.00 HKD, representing a potential upside of 51% based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Geely Automobile (00175) has met expectations for its third-quarter performance and is on track to achieve its annual profit target, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Financial Performance - Geely's third-quarter net profit reached RMB 3.8 billion, representing a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 58% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of RMB 3.7 billion and aligning with market expectations [1] - Excluding foreign exchange gains and impairment losses, the core net profit for the last quarter was RMB 4 billion, up from RMB 3.2 billion in the previous quarter [1] - For the first three quarters, core net profit increased by 59% to RMB 10.6 billion, moving towards the annual target of RMB 15 billion [1] Revenue and Sales - Geely's revenue for the last quarter rose by 26% year-on-year and by 15% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 89 billion, driven by an 8% increase in sales volume [1] - The average selling price showed a mid-single-digit percentage increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the launch of new models (Galaxy M9/A7 and Zeekr 9X) and higher restructuring costs [1] - Excluding contributions from Zeekr, Geely's profit per vehicle was RMB 5,900, down from RMB 6,300 in the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Geely Automobile's Q3 performance meets expectations and is on track to achieve its annual targets, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Financial Performance - Geely's Q3 net profit reached RMB 3.8 billion, a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 58% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectation of RMB 3.7 billion and aligning with market expectations [1] - Excluding foreign exchange gains and impairment losses, the core net profit for the last quarter was RMB 4 billion, up from RMB 3.2 billion in the previous quarter [1] - For the first three quarters, core net profit rose 59% to RMB 10.6 billion, moving towards the annual target of RMB 15 billion [1] Revenue and Sales - Geely's revenue increased by 26% year-on-year and by 15% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 89 billion, driven by an 8% increase in sales volume [1] - The average selling price showed mid-single-digit growth quarter-on-quarter [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while operating expenses rose by 8% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the launch of new models (Galaxy M9/A7 and Zeekr 9X) and higher restructuring costs [1] - Excluding contributions from Zeekr, Geely's profit per vehicle was RMB 5,900, down from RMB 6,300 in the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by increased sales and an optimized product matrix [1][2]. Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 43% year-on-year to 239.5 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at 13.1 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, operating revenue rose by 48% quarter-on-quarter and 15% year-on-year to 89.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 56% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year to 3.82 billion yuan [1]. Development Trends - Sales volume surged by 46% year-on-year to 2.1702 million vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 2025 sales increasing by 43% quarter-on-quarter and 8% year-on-year to 761,000 vehicles [1]. - By brand, sales in Q3 2025 were 53,000 for Zeekr, 87,000 for Lynk & Co, and 327,000 for Galaxy, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 7%, 7%, and 13% respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets, with Q3 2025 export sales increasing by 19% quarter-on-quarter to 112,000 vehicles [1]. Profitability and Quality Improvement - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 16.6%, benefiting from economies of scale and enhanced profitability of new energy vehicles [2]. - The company effectively managed expenses, with the combined sales, management, and research expense ratio decreasing by 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 12.4% [2]. Shareholder Returns and Product Upgrades - The company announced a large-scale share buyback plan in Q3 2025, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [2]. - The product strategy focuses on full-domain intelligence, with new models like the Galaxy A7 and Zeekr 9X set to launch in the second half of the year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a strong new car cycle and the ramp-up of models like Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 900, the company raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.5% and 11.9% to 16.9 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 times for 2025 and 8.0 times for 2026, with a target price of 26.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 51.2% from the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) demonstrated robust performance in Q3, with both revenue and sales increasing on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, benefiting from model structure optimization and export recovery, alongside effective cost control, leading to enhanced overall profitability [1][2][3] Performance Analysis - Revenue: In Q3, the company sold 761,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter increase. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.169 million new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Costs: After adjustments, the sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Profit: The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%. After excluding abnormal exchange gains and non-financial asset losses, the actual net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, increasing by 61.3% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per vehicle for Q3 was 5,200 yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, with an actual net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, up 82.2% year-on-year, and a net profit per vehicle of 4,900 yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [1][2] Operational Analysis and Outlook - Q3 performance was strong, driven by improved model structure and recovery in exports, with new models like Lynk & Co 900 and Galaxy Star 8 performing above median levels, contributing to ASP growth. However, the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the introduction of lower-margin models like Galaxy A7 led to a slight decline in gross margin quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased unit costs. The company maintained stable expense ratios, which decreased quarter-on-quarter, contributing to the overall strong performance [2] - Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to continue strong performance. The new energy segment is anticipated to maintain a trend of increasing volume, price, and profit, with the company solidifying its position as a market leader. New models such as Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 are expected to enhance model structure and further improve unit profitability. The traditional business segment is also expected to remain stable, with exports rebounding and fuel vehicle upgrades maintaining steady performance [2] Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain an upward trend in fundamentals, with strong product development capabilities and a robust new vehicle cycle. The focus should be on the recovery of market recognition. With low costs, strong blockbuster models, and a vigorous new vehicle cycle, the company is viewed positively for continued growth in volume, price, and profit. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 remain unchanged at 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24. The "buy" rating is maintained [3]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) demonstrated robust performance in Q3, with both revenue and sales increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from model structure optimization and export recovery, alongside effective cost control, leading to enhanced overall profitability [1][4] Performance Summary - **Revenue**: In Q3, Geely sold 761,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year and a 6.1% increase quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, total vehicle sales were 2.169 million, up 45.6% year-on-year, with revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4% year-on-year [1][2] - **Expenses**: After adjustments, the sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - **Profit**: The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%. Excluding exceptional foreign exchange gains and non-financial asset losses, the actual net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, up 61.3% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per vehicle for Q3 was 5,200 yuan, increasing by 13.2% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.5%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with an actual net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, an increase of 82.2% year-on-year, and a net profit per vehicle of 4,900 yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [2][3] Operational Analysis and Outlook - Q3 performance was strong, driven by improved model structure and recovery in exports, particularly in the new energy segment. The introduction of new models like Lynk & Co 900 and Galaxy Star 8 contributed to higher ASP. However, the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the launch of lower-margin models like Galaxy A7 led to a slight decline in gross margin quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased unit costs. Despite this, the company maintained effective cost control, with expense ratios decreasing across the board [3] - Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to continue the strong performance. The new energy segment is anticipated to maintain a positive trend in volume, price, and profit, with new models like Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 set to complete their delivery cycles, further improving model structure and releasing scale effects. The traditional business segment is also expected to remain stable, with exports rebounding and fuel vehicle upgrades maintaining steady performance [3] Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The outlook for the company's fundamentals remains positive, with strong product development capabilities and a robust new vehicle cycle. The company is expected to benefit from low costs, popular models, and a strong new vehicle cycle, making it a favorable investment opportunity in the autonomous vehicle sector. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 remains unchanged at 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24. The "buy" rating is maintained [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance is robust, with new car sales reaching 761,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue for Q3 is 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company has shown a strong ability to improve its product mix, driven by the growth in the new energy vehicle segment and a recovery in exports. However, the gross margin has slightly declined due to the increased proportion of new energy vehicles, which typically have lower margins compared to traditional fuel vehicles [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong operational performance in Q4, with continued growth in the new energy segment and stable performance in traditional business lines [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a gross margin of 16.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points. The actual net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61.3% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.169 million new cars, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with total revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expenses - The company’s sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained a stable expense structure, with expense ratios decreasing quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with new models like the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 set to enhance the product lineup and improve profitability [2][4]. - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of domestic new energy vehicles (NEVs) is notable, but there remains a significant demand for domestic fuel vehicles, indicating a complex market landscape [1]. Sales Performance - The best-selling fuel vehicle is the Xingrui, accounting for one-third of monthly sales, followed by Boyue L and Emgrand [3]. - The overall sales of fuel vehicles have remained stable compared to last year, but there is increased pressure from the growing interest in NEVs [4]. - The most popular fuel vehicles in the store include the M8, GS8, M6 series, and the Ying Su series, with Ying Su selling around 18-20 units monthly [6]. - The top-selling fuel cars are the fourth-generation CS75PLUS, CS55PLUS, and Yidong PLUS, collectively selling about 35 units monthly, representing over 65% of total sales [9]. Customer Demographics - Fuel vehicle buyers are predominantly middle-aged, with a mix of professions including factory workers, nurses, and teachers, often requiring vehicles for long-distance travel [3]. - The customer base for the Ying Su is diverse, including first-time buyers and retirees, with a general preference for the reliability of fuel vehicles over NEVs [6]. - Younger customers, often purchasing their first car, primarily consider fuel vehicles, with some interest in plug-in hybrids [10]. Market Trends - There is a noticeable decline in overall sales compared to last year, with profit margins also decreasing, leading to a push for additional services [7]. - The acceptance of NEVs is increasing, with customers recognizing the advantages in product configuration and overall purchase experience [7]. - The market for fuel vehicles is expected to improve slightly next year due to potential changes in tax policies and the reduction of subsidies for NEVs [13][15]. Competitive Landscape - Competing fuel vehicles include popular models like the Langyi and Suteng, with domestic brands such as Chery, GAC, and Changan being compared within similar price ranges [3]. - The lack of competitive pricing and product offerings in the NEV segment is noted, particularly in the 150,000 yuan price range, which is currently underserved [7]. - The best-selling fuel vehicles in the store include the Aiyue 5 and Aiyue 8, appealing to younger consumers due to their affordability and design [12].

Core Insights - Geely Galaxy brand has achieved significant sales growth, reaching 127,476 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 101% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, marking a historical high [2] - The brand has sold a cumulative total of 1,002,000 units in the first ten months of the year, achieving its annual sales target ahead of schedule and becoming the fastest electric vehicle brand to reach this milestone [2] - Geely is repurposing the former SAIC-GM North Factory in Shenyang to increase production capacity for the Galaxy models, with an investment of approximately 890 million yuan [1][6] Production Capacity and Strategy - The production capacity for Galaxy models is currently under pressure due to rapid sales growth, with existing facilities in various locations having a combined annual capacity of nearly 1 million units [6] - Geely has decided not to build new factories or expand existing ones, focusing instead on optimizing existing production capacity and forming strategic partnerships [7] - The company is actively recruiting for various departments at the Shenyang facility to support the production ramp-up [1] Product Development - The Galaxy product lineup is continuously expanding, with the recent global launch of the new generation Galaxy Xingyao 6, available in seven variants priced between 68,800 to 99,800 yuan [3] - Several models under the Galaxy brand, such as the Galaxy E5 and Galaxy M9, have become bestsellers, contributing to the brand's strong market presence [2][6]