[Table_Main] 电车需求跟踪 8 月：以旧换新调整&购 置税提前购车共同博弈 Q4 需求 报告要点 月度关注：各地区以旧换新政策调整，将略微减弱需求，但购置税退坡将促进 提前购车，Q4 需求仍有博弈。自今年 6 月起全国各地由于资金使用完毕暂停 了以旧换新的申请，近期随着第三批资金下达，各地区均调整了以旧换新政 策，调整主要分为三类： 总量上，补贴资金存在缺口，无法支持全年以旧换新需求。2025H1 补贴申领 流程简单、政策拉动效果明显，导致补贴资金透支，上半年使用补贴资金 1620 亿元， 2025H2 剩余资金约 1380 亿元，可用资金不足全年额度的 50%。为 了保证政策贯穿全年，各地区调整了补贴申领方式。 结构上，资金季度分配忽略了汽车消费的季节性因素，Q4 资金缺口放大。10 月将下达 2025Q4 支持以旧换新的中央资金 690 亿元，资金额度与 Q 3 相同， 但汽车消费需求通常下半年强于上半年且 Q4 最为旺盛，Q3 和 Q4 资金额度 平分导致 Q4 资金缺口放大。 需求上，由于购置税退坡将促进提前购车，需求仍有博弈。截至 9 月 10 日， 2025 年汽车以旧换新申请量达到了 ...

"自主品牌B级轿车已经卷到了8万元价格区间，这在以前是不敢想的。"日前，上海比亚迪一位汽车销 售人员向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，当前，细分市场竞争已十分激烈。 如上述比亚迪销售人员所言，B级轿车市场迎来新一轮"价格战"。 日前，荣威M7 DMH上市，以8.58万至10.28万元的限时价，以及中大型轿车的尺寸，开启了对10万元级 插混轿车市场的进攻。在这一细分市场中，比亚迪秦L以及银河A7等对手同样虎视眈眈，两款车型的终 端市场起售价也聚焦在8万元区间。 业内有"得B级车者得天下"的说法。这场B级轿车市场的激烈角逐，不仅关乎车企在该细分领域的市场 份额，更预示着自主品牌在与合资品牌的竞争中，凭借价格、技术与智能化配置等优势，正不断抢占高 地，重塑市场格局。 B级插混轿车"三国杀" 比亚迪秦L和银河A7，这两款车型正是B级插混轿车市场中的"香饽饽"。前者官方售价区间为9.98万至 15.38万元，月销量在1.6万至2万辆之间。 懂车帝数据显示，比亚迪秦L常年与自家兄弟车型——秦PLUS DM占据插混轿车细分市场前两名的位 置。 银河A7官方售价区间为8.98万至12.58万元，今年8月上市后月销量就达到了1.2万 ...

B级车这一细分市场容量大且利润高，过去很长一段时间内基本被合资品牌统治。合资品牌同样在B级 轿车市场推出插混车型，比如雅阁e:PHEV、帕萨特PHEV。从价格来看，合资车型仍集中覆盖20万元价 格区间；从月销量来看，这两款车则保持在三位数。 "高端轿车市场中，日系等合资品牌在萎缩，自主品牌在快速崛起。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树提到了这一 趋势。 格隆汇9月24日｜据每经，"自主品牌B级轿车已经卷到了8万元价格区间，这在以前是不敢想的。"日 前，上海比亚迪一位汽车销售人员表示，当前细分市场的竞争已十分激烈。如该销售人员所言，B级轿 车市场正迎来新一轮的"价格战"。 日前，荣威M7 DMH上市，以8.58万至10.28万元的限时价以及中大型轿车的尺寸，开启了对10万元级插 混轿车市场的进攻。而这一细分市场中，比亚迪秦L以及银河A7等对手同样虎视眈眈，两款车型的终端 市场起售价也聚焦在8万元这一价格区间。 ...

Core Insights - The B-class sedan market is experiencing a price war, with domestic brands aggressively competing in the 80,000 to 100,000 yuan price range, previously dominated by joint ventures [1][2] - The launch of the Roewe M7 DMH at a price of 85,800 to 102,800 yuan marks a significant entry into the mid-sized hybrid sedan market, challenging competitors like BYD Qin L and Galaxy A7 [1][2] - Domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share from joint ventures in the B-class hybrid sedan segment, with models like BYD Qin L and Galaxy A7 leading sales [4][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The B-class hybrid market is characterized by intense competition, with Roewe M7 DMH's pre-sale orders exceeding 10,000 in its first week, indicating strong market interest [2][4] - BYD Qin L and Galaxy A7 are positioned as key competitors, with monthly sales fluctuating between 16,000 to 20,000 units for Qin L and 12,000 units for Galaxy A7 [2][4] - The market is shifting towards domestic brands, which are leveraging pricing, technology, and intelligent features to gain an edge over joint venture brands [1][6] Group 2: Industry Trends - The hybrid sedan segment has seen rapid growth, with sales increasing from 9,925 units in July 2022 to 124,000 units in July 2023, capturing 12.6% of the overall market [8] - Despite a recent slowdown in growth, with a reported 8% decline in August sales, the long-term outlook for hybrid vehicles remains positive [8][9] - The export of plug-in hybrid vehicles has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 165% in the first half of the year, indicating a new growth engine for the segment [9][10]

"自主品牌B级轿车已经卷到了8万元价格区间，这在以前是不敢想的。"日前，上海比亚迪一位汽车销 售人员向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，当前细分市场的竞争已十分激烈。 "这款车充分体现了我们关心的是用户希望要什么产品，有什么样的追求。荣威全新M7 DMH要让消费 者用十万元级的价格，购买到二十万元级B级车的体验。"上汽乘用车常务副总经理俞经民接受《每日 如该销售人员所言，B级轿车市场正迎来新一轮的"价格战"。 日前，荣威M7 DMH上市，以8.58万至10.28万元的限时价以及中大型轿车的尺寸，开启了对10万元级插 混轿车市场的进攻。而这一细分市场中，比亚迪秦L以及银河A7等对手同样虎视眈眈，两款车型的终端 市场起售价也聚焦在8万元这一价格区间。 得B级车者得天下。这场轿车市场的激烈角逐，不仅关乎车企在该细分领域的市场份额，更预示着自主 品牌在与合资品牌的竞争中，凭借价格、技术与智能化配置等优势，正不断抢占高地，重塑市场格局。 B级插混市场开启"三国杀" 对于荣威M7 DMH的进攻，"对手们"未坐以待毙。 "临近十一假期，我们也有优惠活动。比亚迪秦L 2025款DM-i智驾版80KM领先型官方售价是9.98万元， 现 ...

Overall Situation - The market is expected to remain strong for the next four months, with a potential surge in demand for vehicle registrations by year-end due to the upcoming tax changes on new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the following year [1] - If national subsidies decrease, the industry may see an overall decline of 5% to 7%, while continued subsidies could support growth [1] - The slowdown in NEV replacement rates this year is attributed to insufficient discounts from NEV manufacturers and accelerated price reductions in fuel vehicles, leading to a lack of price competitiveness [1] - The transition to electrification is irreversible, with plug-in hybrid vehicles likely to continue replacing fuel vehicles in the coming years [1] - The growth potential for fuel vehicles is now limited, leading many dealerships to consider closing or switching to NEV brands due to financial losses [1] - Currently, about one-third of BBA dealerships are operating at a loss, while two-thirds are profitable, but profits have significantly decreased [1] Brand-Specific Situations - Galaxy A Network is in an upward phase, with half of its sales coming from the Galaxy A7, which has stable monthly sales exceeding 15,000 units, potentially reaching 20,000 [2] - BYD is facing performance pressure and is unlikely to reverse this trend within the year, with a current direct sales gross margin of around 3% [2] - Customer feedback indicates that BYD's low-end intelligent driving features are not well-received, suggesting a need for improvements in battery technology instead [3] - The new P7 from Xiaopeng has received over 10,000 orders in the first hour, but actual delivery numbers are expected to drop significantly thereafter due to its niche positioning [5][6]

Core Insights - Geely Auto reported a significant increase in passenger car sales, exceeding 250,000 units in August, marking a 38% year-on-year growth and achieving a record high of 59% in new energy penetration [1][4] - The company has maintained a dual growth trend for six consecutive months, driven by its "One Geely" strategy and the successful launch of multiple models that quickly became bestsellers [1][5] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 1,47347 units in August, reflecting a 95% year-on-year increase, with a total of over 1 million new energy vehicles sold in the first eight months of the year, a 120% increase [4][3] Sales Performance - In the first eight months of the year, Geely's cumulative sales reached 1,897,064 units, achieving 63% of its annual target of 3 million units [3] - The company has successfully launched several high-potential new models, including the Galaxy A7 and Zeekr 9X, which have seen impressive order volumes shortly after their release [5][1] Technological Advancements - Geely is focusing on building a "Heaven and Earth Integration" ecosystem, leveraging technology as a key driver for growth, including advancements in AI and safety features [6][7] - The company has made significant strides in satellite communication and AI cockpit systems, enhancing user experience and safety in its vehicles [6][7] Global Expansion - Geely's export strategy is gaining momentum, with 36,000 units exported in August and a total of 255,000 units in the first eight months, indicating a steady global market presence [8] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 150.3 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 9.29 billion yuan, reflecting strong financial performance [8] Market Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about Geely's growth potential, with a target price of HKD 26, indicating a 37.2% upside from current levels, supported by the company's strategic initiatives and market positioning [9] - The "One Geely" strategy is expected to enhance resource synergy among its brands, solidifying its market share and driving further growth towards its annual sales target [9]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto is progressing towards the legal merger with Zeekr, with the completion of the acquisition expected by the end of the year, following shareholder approvals [1][2] Group 1: Merger Details - Geely Auto will acquire the remaining 34.3% of Zeekr shares at a price of $2.687 per share, which could cost Geely up to $2.4 billion [1] - Most Zeekr investors are opting for stock exchange rather than cash, indicating confidence in the merged entity [1] - After the merger, Zeekr will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely and will delist from the NYSE [1] Group 2: Strategic Integration - The merger aligns with Geely's "One Geely" strategy aimed at enhancing scale and reducing costs during industry consolidation [2] - Zeekr's independent R&D departments are being integrated into Geely's central research institute, with previous teams already merged [2] - The integration is expected to lead to significant cost savings in R&D and procurement, potentially saving billions annually [5] Group 3: Performance and Market Position - Zeekr's sales have stagnated, with a 3% year-on-year increase in the first half of the year, while the overall EV market grew by 33.3% [5] - Geely's total sales reached 1.409 million units in the first half of the year, a 47% increase, with a market share surpassing 10% [6] - Geely has adjusted its annual sales target upwards by 11% to 3 million units, indicating strong market performance [6]

Overall Analysis - The delivery volume of passenger cars is steadily recovering, with a total of 438,000 units delivered from August 11 to August 17, representing a 14.22% increase month-on-month. New energy vehicles accounted for 248,000 units, up from 219,000 units, marking a 12.94% increase, with a penetration rate of 56.6% [1] - The recovery in delivery volume is attributed to the resumption of production by companies like AITO after the summer break, and it is expected to continue rising with the upcoming peak sales months of September and October [1] Brand Analysis BYD - BYD delivered 65,000 units this week, the highest in nearly seven weeks, driven by price competition and internal market dynamics. However, challenges include product definition and competition from Geely [3] - Specific models like the Sea Lion 06 and Sea Leopard 06 are performing well, with deliveries of 5,800 and 5,600 units respectively. The Han L and Tang L models, however, are underperforming, with weekly deliveries below 1,000 units [3] Geely - Geely's deliveries reached 26,000 units this week, leveraging high configurations at low prices to capture market share from BYD. The Galaxy A7 model has seen rapid adoption, with 4,200 units delivered since its launch [5] - Other models like the Galaxy Starry 8 and Galaxy E5 are also performing well, indicating a strong competitive strategy against BYD [5] New Forces Li Auto - Li Auto delivered 5,600 units this week, maintaining stable sales. However, competition and public relations challenges have impacted performance. Future focus will be on the delivery of the i8 and the launch of the i6 [7] NIO - NIO's delivery of the L90 model reached 2,300 units, with expectations to hit 10,000 units soon. The company has also announced a price reduction for its 100 kWh battery, which may boost sales [8] Xpeng - Xpeng delivered 7,900 units this week, with a focus on new models like the P7 and the recently announced extended-range version of the X9. The company reported a gross margin of 17.3% for Q2 2025, driven by product mix optimization [9] AITO - AITO delivered 7,700 units this week, with production capacity gradually increasing post-summer break. Anticipation for the M7 model's major update is growing [11] Leap Motor - Leap Motor achieved over 10,000 deliveries this week and reported its first half-year net profit, becoming the second new force in China's automotive sector to achieve this milestone [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience significant profit growth driven by the release of new models and strategic integration, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards due to anticipated strong performance in the second half of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company raised its 2025 annual sales target to 3 million units, supported by the platform-based cost advantages and the introduction of popular models [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28%, primarily driven by a 47% increase in quarterly deliveries to 705,000 units [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 reached 3.62 billion RMB, with core net profit estimated between 2.44 billion and 2.65 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 42%-55% [1] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The upcoming launch of several new models, including the fifth-generation Emgrand and Galaxy A7, is expected to enhance delivery growth, with the Galaxy A7 already achieving over 30,000 pre-orders since its launch [2] - The company is focusing on smart upgrades and a clear product matrix through Zeekr Technology, targeting the luxury market with new models like the Zeekr 9X and Lynk & Co 10 EM-P [2] - The global expansion strategy aims for a more than 30% increase in export sales in the second half of 2025, supported by strategic integrations and operational efficiencies [2]