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新一轮投产期加剧过剩格局 乙二醇仍空配思路为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-31 07:00
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows mixed trends, with futures prices experiencing a slight decline while spot prices have increased in certain regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, the main contract for ethylene glycol futures has decreased by 0.78%, settling at 3804.00 CNY/ton [1]. - On December 30, the closing price for ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang rose by 19 CNY/ton to 3702 CNY/ton, while the price in the South China market increased by 10 CNY/ton to 3850 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - A 200,000-ton ethylene glycol unit in South China was restarted on December 25, with some products already being produced. This maintenance was for catalyst replacement, and the unit is expected to operate at full capacity going forward [2]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Downstream polyester operating rates have decreased to 89.7%, indicating a slight weakening in demand support. In November, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.2194 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.5% and a year-on-year increase of 9.78% [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook suggests that a new wave of production will exacerbate the oversupply of ethylene glycol, with price adjustments likely leading to marginal capacity shutdowns. Although short-term fluctuations may stabilize prices, the overall oversupply situation is expected to persist, maintaining a bearish market sentiment [2].