知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

1月28日，荣盛石化涨5.03%，截至发稿，报14.42元/股，成交5.07亿元，换手率0.39%，总市值1440.48 亿元。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）成立日期2012年5月4日，最新规模4222.58亿。今年以来收益1.73%， 同类排名4579/5549；近一年收益26.46%，同类排名2873/4285；成立以来收益119.93%。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）基金经理为柳军。 截至发稿，柳军累计任职时间16年243天，现任基金资产总规模5509.28亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 193.73%， 任职期间最差基金回报-45.64%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 资料显示，荣盛石化股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市萧山区金城路358号蓝爵国际写字楼，成立日期 1995年9月15日，上市日期2010年11月2日，公司主营业务涉及各类化工品、油品、聚酯产品的研发、生 产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：化工40.87%，炼油35.26%，PTA10.60%，聚酯化纤薄膜7.49%，贸易 及其他5.79%。 数据显示，华泰柏瑞基金旗下1只基金重仓荣盛石化。油气基金（561570）四季度持有股数5.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Inventory**: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The upstream of LLDPE and PP continues to reduce prices, with poor order - taking. The supply of LLDPE is expected to increase marginally, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP has a weak supply - demand situation, but the inventory is expected to turn to a decline in January, and the balance has improved. However, the weighted profit has been repaired, and the far - month disk has certain characteristics. Attention should be paid to the implementation of later maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level, with the basis strengthening slightly. The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory is slightly depleted, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and the fading of geopolitical risk premium [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene improves slightly, but the port inventory level is still high, and its own driving force is limited. Styrene is boosted by exports and device accidents, and its price is strong, driving up the price of pure benzene. The spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. For strategies, consider short - selling opportunities in BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is tight, there is an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Consider short - selling opportunities in EB03 and narrowing the EB processing fee at high levels [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The spot price has a slight decline, the supply is at a high level, the demand has not improved significantly, and the factory inventory is hovering at a high level. Glass futures are also expected to continue the weak trend. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is shrinking in the off - season [6]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20th, and the spot price was slightly loose. The supply is at a high level, with the daily output rising to 200,000 tons. The demand side has some rigid needs, but the overall receiving enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the urea price will be in a weak shock in the short term [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fell weakly, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price will continue to be under pressure. PVC futures fluctuated and closed down, with the spot price remaining stable. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weakening, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is controversial. It is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, but the downward space is limited [8]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded. The geopolitical risk has eased, but the instability remains. The short - term oil price is supported by the shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak, and the upward space is limited. Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - The overseas raw material prices of natural rubber continue to fall, weakening the bottom support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports is relatively good, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reducing period, the raw material price decline is limited, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [11]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices declined. The inventory of refineries and ports decreased, the upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased. Overall, no clear view on the future trend is given in the report [12]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, and the downward space is limited in the second quarter. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations before the Spring Festival. For MEG, there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, and the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations in the short term. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply is expected to decline, and it will follow the cost fluctuations [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all decreased on January 20, 2026, compared with January 19. The prices of some spot products also changed, such as the华东LDPE price decreased by 250 yuan/ton, and the 华东PP注塑 price decreased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.07 percentage points, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly. The PE enterprise inventory and social inventory both decreased. The PP device operating rate increased slightly, while the PP powder device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate decreased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of some regions also changed, such as the 内蒙北线现货 price decreased by 28 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed to different degrees, with the downstream - outer - purchased MTO device operating rate decreasing significantly by 8.85 percentage points [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also had different changes, such as the 纯苯华东现货 price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 苯乙烯华东现货 price decreased by 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points, and the 苯酚 operating rate increased by 4.0 percentage points [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures decreased on January 20. The spot prices of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly. The glass factory inventory decreased, while the soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20, and the spot price was slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The domestic urea daily output increased, and the weekly output also increased. The factory inventory and port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda futures and some spot products decreased on January 20, while the PVC spot price remained stable, and the futures prices had different changes [8]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly. The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, but the total social inventory increased [8]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil price increased by 0.98 dollars/barrel on January 20, while the SC crude oil price decreased by 4.10 yuan/barrel. The prices of some refined oil products also changed, such as the ICE Gasoil price increased by 14.25 dollars/ton [9]. - **Market Factors**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has eased, but the instability remains. The shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan has supported the short - term oil price, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of natural rubber - related products such as 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) and 泰标混合胶 decreased on January 20 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The natural rubber production in some countries decreased in November, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of automobile tires in China increased, and the domestic tire output and export volume increased. The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate [11]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of LPG in the South China region also decreased [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of polyester products and related raw materials had different changes, such as the 聚酯切片 price increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the MEG华东现货 price decreased by 36 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain decreased, such as the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. The MEG port inventory decreased slightly, but the arrival expectation increased [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price drivers are limited, expected to range between 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with raw material prices providing support at the lower end and weak demand capping the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in Thailand [1]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the weekly supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is still high, and the self - driving force is limited. For styrene, it is driven by exports, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Strategically, be cautiously bearish on BZ2603, and look for opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread; also look for opportunities to short EB03 at high levels and shrink the EB processing fee [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: After a previous rise driven by macro - sentiment, it has fallen back. The spot price is basically flat, and the market sentiment is dull. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level and being adjusted. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and continue to fluctuate weakly. - Glass: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment. The spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory has decreased seasonally. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and maintain a weak - fluctuating trend [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are affected by Middle East geopolitics, but the supply - demand expectation is weak. The inventory of US crude oil and refined oil has increased significantly. The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [4]. Polyolefin Industry - The polyolefin market is supported by rising raw material costs, but the profit first expands and then compresses. The static supply and demand both decline, and the inventory is being reduced. PP is short - term strong due to reduced supply pressure from maintenance, while PE is under pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations. Overall, it is constrained by supply pressure and off - season demand, and the upward space may be limited [7]. LPG Industry - The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. No clear overall view is provided in the report [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: High supply and weak demand are expected in the first quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in the second quarter is expected to be tight, and the downside space is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken in January, with limited inventory accumulation in January but greater pressure in February. It mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - MEG: There is a significant expectation of inventory accumulation in the near - term, and the price is under pressure in January. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations in the short term. - Polyester bottle - chips: The supply is expected to decline significantly in January, and the absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost fluctuations [11]. Methanol Industry - The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is weak, which limits the price rebound. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support for the 05 contract, but an upward trend requires substantial improvement in demand [14][15]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, the supply is increasing slightly, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short term. - PVC: Affected by policies, the price fluctuates greatly. The fundamentals are under pressure, with stable supply growth, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation pressure, but the cost support is stable [16]. Urea Industry - The supply of urea is at a high level in the short term, and the demand is weak. However, there is an expectation of increased regional agricultural demand in the short term, and the inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [17]. Summaries by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.32%. The whole - latex basis increased by 210 to - 135, with a daily increase of 60.87%. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 570 to - 82, with a daily decrease of 670.59%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 570 to 570, with a daily increase of 1036.36%. Fundamental Data - In November, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by - 9.39%, - 2.58%, and 2.20% respectively compared with the previous month. The production in China increased by 23.7 thousand tons. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in November increased by 3.96% compared with the previous month, and the tire export volume in December increased by 3.29% [1]. Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (March) increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.6%. WTI crude oil (February) increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.4%. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 7,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 4 to - 53, with a daily increase of - 7.0%. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows and Inventory - The cash flows of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.6 million tons, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 million tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of glass 2605 increased by 17 yuan/ton to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 05 basis decreased by 17 to - 83, with a daily decrease of - 25.76%. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of soda ash 2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,192 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.09%. The 05 basis increased by 1 to 28, with a daily increase of 1.75%. Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 5.93% compared with January 9, and the weekly output increased by 8.11%. The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.58%. WTI crude oil increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.14 cents per gallon to 178.52 cents per gallon, with a daily increase of 0.08%. ICE Gasoil increased by $13 to $650.5 per ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of some refined oil products have changed, such as the US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.19 to $15.54 per barrel, with a daily decrease of - 1.22% [4]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of L2605 decreased by 119 yuan/ton to 6,814 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.75%. The L59 spread decreased by 28 to - 28. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of East China PP拉丝 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.09%. The North China LL basis decreased by 10 to - 90, with a daily decrease of - 12.50%. Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory - The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 2.48%, and the operating rate of PP devices increased by 0.20%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons [7]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The price of the main PG2602 decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 4,202 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 2.12%. The PG02 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 65, with a daily increase of 8.33%. LPG Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.77%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 10.4 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price of POY150/48 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 6,690 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.4%. The cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 78.0%. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of CFR China PX decreased by $2 to $879 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.2%. The PX - crude oil spread decreased by $2 to $411 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PTA, MEG - Related Prices and Inventory - The price of PTA East China spot decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 4,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.8%. The MEG port inventory increased by 7.7 million tons [11]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - The price of MA2605 decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 2,239 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.50%. The MA59 spread decreased by 10 to - 9, with a daily decrease of - 1000.00%. Methanol Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 10.19 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed, such as the downstream - outer - sourced MTO device operating rate decreased by 11.22% [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 4,580 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.5%. The SH2605 price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,213 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.4%. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged at $350 per ton. The export profit decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC increased by $20 to $630 per ton, with a daily increase of 3.3%. The export profit of FOB Tianjin Port calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 102.6 yuan/ton to 5.9 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 106.1%. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of the caustic soda industry increased by 0.3%, and the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.3%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons [16]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,791 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.56%. The 05 - 09 contract spread decreased by 1 to 28, with a daily decrease of - 3.45%. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of urea in Shandong (small particles) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The Shandong basis increased by 20 to 20, with a daily increase of 11.70%. Supply and Demand - The daily output of domestic urea increased by 0.03 million tons to 19.98 million tons on January 14, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.61 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [17].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows mixed trends, with futures prices experiencing a slight decline while spot prices have increased in certain regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, the main contract for ethylene glycol futures has decreased by 0.78%, settling at 3804.00 CNY/ton [1]. - On December 30, the closing price for ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang rose by 19 CNY/ton to 3702 CNY/ton, while the price in the South China market increased by 10 CNY/ton to 3850 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - A 200,000-ton ethylene glycol unit in South China was restarted on December 25, with some products already being produced. This maintenance was for catalyst replacement, and the unit is expected to operate at full capacity going forward [2]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Downstream polyester operating rates have decreased to 89.7%, indicating a slight weakening in demand support. In November, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.2194 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.5% and a year-on-year increase of 9.78% [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook suggests that a new wave of production will exacerbate the oversupply of ethylene glycol, with price adjustments likely leading to marginal capacity shutdowns. Although short-term fluctuations may stabilize prices, the overall oversupply situation is expected to persist, maintaining a bearish market sentiment [2].

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.00%, while the company has shown a significant year-to-date increase of 31.10% in stock price [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 31, Rongsheng Petrochemical's stock price is 11.74 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 117.276 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has seen a 31.10% increase year-to-date, with a 11.17% rise over the last five trading days, 20.04% over the last 20 days, and 21.66% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a revenue of 227.815 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.888 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.34% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Rongsheng Petrochemical is 73,700, a decrease of 14.14% from the previous period, with an average of 126,986 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 14.80% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 9.4 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.391 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 191 million shares, an increase of 17.0569 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

Market Overview - On December 24, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a slight weakening of the spot basis. The December contract was traded at a discount of 19, with prices ranging from 4975 to 5060 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 221 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601, TA2603, and TA2605 were 315, 292, and 327 yuan/ton respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of December 19, the production load of the 1.25 million ton PTA unit operated by INEOS was reduced, with a potential shutdown in the future, resulting in a PTA load of 73.2%, a decrease of 0.5% [1] - Demand: As of December 19, the polyester load slightly decreased to 91.1%, down by 0.1%. On December 24, the price of polyester filament adjusted locally, with overall production and sales remaining weak. Recent raw material price increases exceeded expectations, leading to increased downstream replenishment last Thursday and Friday, resulting in a slight increase in production and sales. However, the rapid reduction in downstream production loads indicates that it will take time to digest social inventory, which may shift inventory pressure back to factories in the near future [1] Market Outlook - With the significant rise in raw material PX prices, PTA and polyester product prices have also increased. Currently, there is not much supply-demand pressure on PTA, as maintenance of PTA units was concentrated in November and December, and polyester operating rates remain high due to domestic and international demand support. Additionally, the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to increase PTA export prospects, leading to a tighter supply-demand pattern in November and December, with PTA processing fees recovering [1] - In terms of absolute prices, PTA is expected to face maintenance of units in the first quarter under low processing fees, while seasonal reductions in polyester production before and after the Spring Festival may lead to inventory accumulation expectations for PTA in the first quarter. Furthermore, some major polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, limiting the upward momentum for PTA prices. The strategy suggests a cautious view on current prices following the rise in PX, with recommendations to reduce positions on highs and a mid-term bullish outlook [1]