Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound oscillation. With smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 ship purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. Meanwhile, the continuously low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side is a potential positive factor. In terms of valuation, the downward space of US soybeans on the cost side is limited. With the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - term futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7%; rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1518 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1792 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising procurement costs due to rising meal prices, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to the enterprise's situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - In Q3, the price of protein meal will be constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound oscillation. With smooth US soybean planting, the upward driving force for domestic soybean meal futures is limited. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There is a Q4 purchase gap, and after trading Q3 arrival and inventory pressure, there may be an inflection point. The low inventory of feed mills is a potential positive factor. The downward space of US soybeans on the cost side is limited, and the far - term price may have upward driving force [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretations - After China - US talks, the cost valuation of the external market provides strong support for the far - term futures. - There is strong bullish sentiment for the far - term futures due to weather - related speculation. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - term contract price from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Interpretations - Supply - side pressure remains the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - term futures through warehouse receipt registration, leading to weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some regions are urging提货. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream lacks cost - effectiveness in using rapeseed meal. The market's repeated pricing of the WTO's establishment of a panel to investigate China - Canada tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | 21 | 0.7% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2715 | 15 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2958 | 14 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2319 | 25 | 1.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2327 | 14 | 0.61% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2601 | 23 | 0.89% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1047.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1634 | - 0.0006 | - 0.01% | [9] 3.7 Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - M01 - 05 spread is 287 with no daily change; RM01 - 05 spread is - 19, down 5. - M05 - 09 spread is - 244, up 7; RM05 - 09 spread is - 265, up 1. - M09 - 01 spread is - 43, down 1; RM09 - 01 spread is 284, up 4. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860 with no change, and the basis is - 84, down 3. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2512, down 14, and the basis is - 60, down 26. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 334, down 20; the futures price spread is 366 with no change [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) | 4499.933 | 0 | - 0.0077 | | Brazilian soybean import cost | 3910.2 | 104.51 | 171.66 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.6964 | 0 | 14.0279 | | US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) | - 705.563 | 0 | 12.2794 | | Brazilian soybean import profit | 177.4043 | 6.037 | - 0.1748 | | Canadian rapeseed import futures profit | 8 | - 99 | - 155 | | Canadian rapeseed import spot profit | - 2 | - 114 | - 178 | [11]