Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oilseed and oil sectors are facing various supply - demand challenges. The oilmeal market has potential supply contractions, while the oil market is generally weak with high inventories. Without bio - diesel speculation, the oil market is likely to return to a weak fundamental state and may experience further short - term adjustments [6][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilmeal Market 1.1 Soybean Meal - In August, the USDA cut the U.S. soybean area, potentially leading to a supply contraction in the global market in the fourth quarter. The U.S. soybean is entering the harvest period, and its inventory is expected to decline. There is uncertainty about Sino - U.S. tariffs, and domestic soybean purchases in November are not active. The domestic spot price has stopped falling and is in a low - level oscillation. As the domestic futures market drops, the spot basis strengthens, presenting opportunities for a low - level rebound [6]. 1.2 Rapeseed Meal - The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The potential anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant drop in imports, but there is uncertainty before the tariffs are finalized. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and insufficient imports may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of domestic rapeseed meal and oil. The domestic rapeseed meal market has price but low trading volume, with low overall inventory, and the medium - term outlook is positive. The uncertainty lies in future tariff negotiations with Canada and the implementation of import policies [6]. 2. Oil Market 2.1 Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil production is increasing, leading to high - level inventory accumulation. The price difference with other oils may cause demand substitution. After the speculation on soybean oil exports, there is no further progress. If exports do not meet expectations, the domestic market may face an oversupply situation. Future attention should be paid to the price difference and substitution effects of overseas bio - diesel and palm oil [37]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a high - level oscillation. The delay of Indonesia's B50 program may weaken the bio - diesel outlook. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory build - up is not over. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and bio - diesel. Domestic inventory is high and increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Higher import costs may lead to price drops if the overseas market weakens [38]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector lacks new topics, and during the off - season, inventory reduction is slow, putting pressure on the market. However, anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce the supply of rapeseed oil. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal purchasing willingness and weak trading in many regions, and the basis continues to decline slightly [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing weakness; the downside space of the near - month contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - month contracts. The rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the alleviation of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts under weather speculation, and the cost - end support of Brazilian export premiums for far - month contracts. Bearish factors include the rebound of basis due to some oil mill shutdowns, the expected large soybean arrivals in August, September, and October, and the future supply uncertainty of rapeseed [6][7][9] 2. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 10.2% and a historical percentile of 7.8% (3 - year). The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% (3 - year) [3]. Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - Closing prices and daily changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, such as the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3065 with no change, and the closing price of rapeseed meal 09 is 2724 with a 1.72% increase [7]. Spreads - Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are given, like the spread of M01 - 05 is 314 with a 5 - point increase [9]. Import Costs and Profits - Import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are presented, for example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4667.1163 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.2014 yuan/ton [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound oscillation. With smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 ship purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. Meanwhile, the continuously low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side is a potential positive factor. In terms of valuation, the downward space of US soybeans on the cost side is limited. With the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - term futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7%; rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1518 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1792 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising procurement costs due to rising meal prices, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to the enterprise's situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - In Q3, the price of protein meal will be constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound oscillation. With smooth US soybean planting, the upward driving force for domestic soybean meal futures is limited. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There is a Q4 purchase gap, and after trading Q3 arrival and inventory pressure, there may be an inflection point. The low inventory of feed mills is a potential positive factor. The downward space of US soybeans on the cost side is limited, and the far - term price may have upward driving force [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretations - After China - US talks, the cost valuation of the external market provides strong support for the far - term futures. - There is strong bullish sentiment for the far - term futures due to weather - related speculation. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - term contract price from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Interpretations - Supply - side pressure remains the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - term futures through warehouse receipt registration, leading to weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some regions are urging提货. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream lacks cost - effectiveness in using rapeseed meal. The market's repeated pricing of the WTO's establishment of a panel to investigate China - Canada tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | 21 | 0.7% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2715 | 15 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2958 | 14 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2319 | 25 | 1.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2327 | 14 | 0.61% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2601 | 23 | 0.89% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1047.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1634 | - 0.0006 | - 0.01% | [9] 3.7 Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - M01 - 05 spread is 287 with no daily change; RM01 - 05 spread is - 19, down 5. - M05 - 09 spread is - 244, up 7; RM05 - 09 spread is - 265, up 1. - M09 - 01 spread is - 43, down 1; RM09 - 01 spread is 284, up 4. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860 with no change, and the basis is - 84, down 3. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2512, down 14, and the basis is - 60, down 26. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 334, down 20; the futures price spread is 366 with no change [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) | 4499.933 | 0 | - 0.0077 | | Brazilian soybean import cost | 3910.2 | 104.51 | 171.66 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.6964 | 0 | 14.0279 | | US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) | - 705.563 | 0 | 12.2794 | | Brazilian soybean import profit | 177.4043 | 6.037 | - 0.1748 | | Canadian rapeseed import futures profit | 8 | - 99 | - 155 | | Canadian rapeseed import spot profit | - 2 | - 114 | - 178 | [11]