1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term supply of the oilseed industry is in excess. Although the short - term import rhythm has slowed down, it is difficult to change the long - term surplus pattern. For example, the long - term supply of soybean meal is relatively excessive, and the supply of rapeseed meal is also under pressure [2]. - Different oils have different supply - demand situations. For instance, soybean oil has a double - weak supply - demand pattern, palm oil has a high - inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil has a tight supply pattern but is also affected by policy uncertainties [39][40][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Likely Factors**: Short - term supply tightening, with relatively insufficient arrivals of South American soybeans in March compared to last year. Some oil mills shut down for maintenance due to lack of soybeans, and the开机率 is not high. The demand side shows that the hog inventory has recovered, and the concentrated entry of secondary fattening has increased the rigid demand for feed, with the提货 volume of feed enterprises in March increasing year - on - year [2]. - **Negative Factors**: The high - yield pressure in South America continues to materialize. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the output is expected to reach a historical high. The global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio has rebounded. From April, the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to increase to over 8 million tons, and the probability of soybean meal inventory accumulation in the later period is high, with significant long - term supply pressure [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Likely Factors**: Strong policy support. Since March 20, China has imposed a 100% tariff on imported Canadian rapeseed meal, and the import volume is expected to drop sharply from April. The arrival of rapeseed at coastal oil mills in China has slowed down, the crushing volume has gradually decreased, and the rapeseed inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand for aquaculture has weakened in the short term. The fundamentals of rapeseed meal are slightly weak, and there is still supply pressure. The short - term increase in rapeseed meal from countries such as India and Russia is limited, and the sustainability of Australian rapeseed imports is worthy of attention. In the later period, the import changes of Canadian rapeseed need to be continuously monitored, as Canadian rapeseed is entering the supply peak, and domestic rapeseed will also gradually come on the market in April and May [3]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - **Likely Factors**: The US biodiesel policy continues to be effective. The USDA expects the US soybean oil biodiesel consumption to reach 14.8 billion pounds in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a year - on - year increase of 25.87%, and to increase to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 fiscal year. The arrival of soybeans in China decreased in March, the operation of oil mills was unstable, and the tight提货 in some storage areas supported the spot price. The international crude oil price remained high due to geopolitical factors, indirectly boosting industrial consumption demand [39]. - **Negative Factors**: The concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans has led to a loose global supply, with a relative surplus at the raw material end. The domestic soybean oil inventory is still at a historical high, and the downstream demand is weak during the off - season, presenting a double - weak supply - demand pattern. After April, the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans will put greater pressure on inventory recovery [39]. 3.3.2 Palm Oil - **Likely Factors**: Overseas biodiesel still boosts oils, and the overseas palm oil has driven up the domestic import cost. Crude oil has a significant short - term impact on oils, and it is recommended to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Negative Factors**: The seasonal production recovery pressure is emerging, and both the main producing countries and China are under high - inventory pressure. The internal and external supply - demand is relatively weak, and the seasonal increase in production may exacerbate the supply surplus [40]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Likely Factors**: The tight supply pattern continues. China has not yet resumed the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have caused a short - term increase in the international rapeseed futures price, providing support at the cost end. Crude oil has a significant short - term impact on oils [41]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced rapeseed oil, restricting the price increase space. After the post - holiday replenishment, the demand has declined periodically. Statistics Canada expects the rapeseed planting area in 2026 to increase to 22.3 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. If the final result of the Sino - Canadian anti - dumping investigation opens the import window for Canadian rapeseed, the tight domestic supply pattern will be quickly alleviated, and policy uncertainties pose the main risk [41].

Report Information - Report Title: Oil Weekly Report, Oilseed Industry Weekly Report - Date: March 20, 2026 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of soybean meal tend to be flat, with market focus on short - term supply disruptions and the future arrival pressure of a large amount of Brazilian soybeans [2]. - Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal in the short term, showing a volatile pattern [5]. - Overseas biodiesel speculation has pushed up overseas soybean oil prices, but the uncertainty of Middle East events has increased the volatility of oils [38]. - The seasonal production reduction of palm oil in the origin has ended, with high overseas and domestic inventory pressures [42]. - The short - term fundamentals of rapeseed oil have changed little, with the market continuing to pay attention to the overall oil price fluctuations and potential changes in Canadian imports [46]. Summary of Each Category Soybean Meal Supply - Short - term imported soybean meal is supported by rising ocean freight; there is significant supply pressure from future arrivals during the South American soybean harvest season [2]. - Trump's postponed visit to China may also affect the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. Demand - The continuous weakness of hog prices leads to weak demand for feed [3]. Inventory - The overall inventory level remains high, and high inventory may become the norm under the expectation of future South American arrivals [4]. Rapeseed Meal Supply - The supply of raw materials has increased as imported Australian and Canadian rapeseeds have arrived at ports, and the supply of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills has eased [6]. - The development of Middle East events affects the market's expectation of rising freight rates [6]. Demand - The peak season for aquaculture has not arrived, so overall demand is flat. Attention should be paid to the release of aquaculture demand from April to June [7]. Inventory - The inventory of coastal granular rapeseed meal has rebounded slightly from the low point, and the overall inventory level is not high [8]. Soybean Oil Supply - The raw material supply still depends on the change of imported soybeans. Domestic soybean crushing is weak due to low demand, so the supply pressure of soybean oil is not significant. Currently, the import cost is seriously inverted [39]. Demand - It is the off - season for demand. The trading volume of bulk oil is average, and there is a certain degree of substitution among different oils [40]. Inventory - The overall inventory is slightly higher than the historical level, with certain inventory pressure [41]. Palm Oil Supply - The March MPOB report shows that the supply has started to increase seasonally, but due to the serious price inversion between the domestic and international markets, the increase in domestic supply is limited [43]. Demand - The demand for edible oil is weak after the festival. Palm oil has a price - substitution advantage, and the high price of soybean oil leads to substitution consumption of palm oil [44]. Inventory - The inventory in the origin is high. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia exceeds expectations, and the inventories of major producing countries remain at high levels [45]. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Production has recovered. The crushing of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the tight supply in the East and South China markets. The tense situation in the Middle East has also increased market concerns about rising freight rates [47]. Demand - It is the off - season for seasonal demand, and the overall demand for oils is moderately weak [48]. Inventory - The inventory has started to slow down its decline from a low level, with a slight month - on - month increase, but it still remains relatively low overall [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The war in the Middle East may affect the short - term import rhythm of domestic soybean meal from some regions, and high freight rates increase the import cost. In the long run, the bumper harvest in South America still exerts pressure. The downstream demand for soybean meal is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal in the short term, with slow imports and high shipping costs. The overall demand for oils is in the off - season, and the inventory situation varies among different oils [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Supply**: In the short term, the import of soybean meal from some Middle Eastern regions faces support from rising freight rates. During the South American soybean harvest period, there will be a large supply pressure in the future. Trump may visit China from March to April, increasing the market's expectation of purchasing US soybeans [2] - **Demand**: The current demand from downstream feed mills is flat, the demand for pigs is weak, and spot transactions are poor. After the Spring Festival, the pig market is in the traditional off - season, and low pig prices suppress the expected increase in long - term feed consumption [2] - **Inventory**: China maintains a relatively high inventory pattern, with significant pressure on port raw materials and soybean meal finished product inventories [3] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: The supply of raw materials has increased as previously imported Australian and Canadian rapeseeds have arrived at ports, alleviating the supply of rapeseed meal at coastal oil mills. The Middle East event has affected the market's expectation of rising freight rates. In the long - term, the supply is still relatively tight compared to soybean meal [5] - **Demand**: As the start of aquaculture (usually from April to May) has not arrived, there is only a very small amount of demand for poultry feed substitution, and the overall demand is flat [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coastal granular rapeseed meal has rebounded slightly from the low point, and the overall inventory level is not high [7] 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Oil mills have low short - term operating rates and low crushing volumes, which alleviate the supply pressure of soybean oil to some extent. Overseas prices are rising, and the import cost is seriously inverted, resulting in low import pressure [41] - **Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in bulk oil trading volume. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand in the later stage [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is slightly higher than the historical average, and the short - term inventory is relatively stable on a month - on - month basis. The strong short - term crude oil has driven up the prices of overseas biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil, and the domestic market has followed suit due to the increase in import costs [43] 3.3.2 Palm Oil - **Supply**: The March MPOB report shows that the supply has started to seasonally recover. However, due to the serious price inversion at home and abroad, near - month ship purchases are restricted, and the domestic supply increase is limited [45] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand for edible oil is weak. Palm oil has a price advantage and is used as a substitute for soybean oil [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory in the producing areas is high. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia exceeds expectations, and the inventory in the main producing countries remains at a high level [47] 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: The output has recovered as the crushing of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the supply shortage in the East and South China markets. The anti - dumping measures against Canada may lead to uncertainties in Canadian imports. The tense situation in the Middle East has also increased market concerns about rising freight rates [49] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand for oils is moderately weak [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory has shown a slowdown in the rate of decline from a low level, with a slight month - on - month increase, but it still remains relatively low [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report met market expectations, and the market continues to focus on the sowing and weather conditions of soybeans in South America. The expected increase in South American soybean production may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year [6]. - The slow progress of China's procurement of US soybeans and the state - reserve soybean auctions have affected the domestic supply. Weak demand due to breeding losses and high inventory levels also pose challenges to the market [6]. - For rapeseed, reduced imports have led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventory, and the end of the aquaculture demand peak has weakened demand support. The potential resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports may put short - term pressure on the market [6]. - In the oil market, raw material pressure persists for soybean oil, and the slowdown in overseas biodiesel themes and the substitution effect between oils have an impact on the market. For palm oil, high inventory levels in Malaysia and China have overshadowed the impact of the seasonal production decline. For rapeseed oil, the uncertainty of Canadian imports and the potential relaxation of import restrictions have influenced the market [38][40][41]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by factors such as South American soybean production prospects, slow US soybean procurement in China, state - reserve auctions, weak demand, and high inventory [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Reduced imports, the end of the aquaculture demand peak, and potential Canadian imports are the main influencing factors [6]. 3.2. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: Raw material pressure exists, and the slowdown in the biodiesel theme and the substitution effect between oils have affected the market. Although there is some support from the year - end demand peak, the supply - demand situation remains complex [38][39]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's December inventory exceeded expectations, and China's high - level inventory has offset the impact of the seasonal production decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan has little short - term impact [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High import tariffs, potential relaxation of Canadian import restrictions, reduced imports leading to inventory reduction, and demand substitution have influenced the market [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decrease, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a single - sided driver. The near - month contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - month contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the long - near and short - far positive spread logic [4]. - Rapeseed meal will remain in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expectation of additional Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, so it is regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warrant registration after the centralized cancellation of warrants in November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans will be further reduced and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases can be realized. The domestic market has a positive spread logic of near - strong and far - weak [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will be in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected supply recovery and limited demand growth, it is regarded as weak, and attention can be paid to the warrant registration after the November cancellation [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices, the external market balance sheet's price range moves up, and the pressure on near - month contracts eases during the warrant cancellation month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The current near - month supply of imported soybeans is high, Brazilian planting is smooth with a high - yield expectation, and the far - month supply gap is filled under the Sino - US negotiation and procurement background [8]. 3.4 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3012, down 5 (- 0.17%); soybean meal 05 is 2803, down 8 (- 0.28%); soybean meal 09 is 2915, down 11 (- 0.38%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2431, up 19 (0.79%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2367, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2435, down 9 (- 0.37%); CBOT soybeans are 1123, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1198, up 0.0019 (0.03%) [9]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures and spot are presented in the report, such as the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 209, up 3, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 64, up 29 [10]. 3.5 Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4759.4897 yuan/ton, up 47.3957 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 879.9197 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3817.15 yuan/ton, down 37.46 yuan/ton, with a profit of 182.5377 yuan/ton. The import cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 773.9008 yuan/ton, up 7.8381 yuan/ton. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 692 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and the spot profit is 954 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention should be paid to whether the ending stocks in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range is expected to move up slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the implementation of tariffs, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. After China's decision to resume group tours to Canada, there is an additional expectation of negotiations, and considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal areas and oil mills remains high, limiting the upside potential for price rebounds. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus is on the export demand of US soybeans and the de-stocking logic after tariff implementation. The external market is pricing in the expected export of 12 million tons of US soybeans to China, and attention is on the USDA report's ending stocks. The domestic market is pricing in the de-stocking logic, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. The potential for demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The oscillation range for M2601 is 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower bounds. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced or liquidated; a covered call strategy can be considered in combination with options, selling a 3300 call option as a covered call for M2601, and holding existing covered call positions; sell a 2600 call option for rapeseed meal 2601 [16]. 3.1.3 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: The current basis can be considered in combination with the oscillation range, using accumulating options to reduce basis risk. The near-term basis is expected to strengthen. - **Spread Strategy**: Positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads can be reduced. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is high (650 - 700) [17]. 3.1.4 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Chicago soybean futures need a catalyst to rise further. US agricultural exporters are optimistic about the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. As of November 6, 61% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop had been sown, up from 47% a week ago but below last year's 67%. The USDA will release its November supply and demand report on November 14 [24]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean sowing has started, but as of November 5, only 4.4% of the expected area had been sown, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October were significantly higher than last year. Argentina's agricultural areas have experienced above - average rainfall, which may offset the risk of reduced rainfall caused by La Nina [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazil Secex weekly report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report and Conab Brazil grain production survey. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural positions report and USDA monthly supply and demand report. Special attention should be paid to the USDA supply and demand report released at 1 am Beijing time on November 15 [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the increase in external market costs this week, with long - positions adding and the price rebounding. The rapeseed meal futures adjusted this week after a significant rebound following previous China - Canada negotiations. - **Capital Flows**: In the soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets, foreign institutional short - positions were closed and long - positions were added, while institutional investors reduced long - positions and added short - positions, indicating limited upside potential for the rebound. The soybean meal option PCR indicator shows that the market's bullish sentiment has returned. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures spreads generally show a B - structure in the first half of the year and a C - structure in the second half, mainly related to seasonal supply patterns. This week, the M1 - 5 spread first rose and then fell, related to the rebound of M01, and the RM1 - 5 spread weakened due to the decline of RM01. - **Basis Structure**: The soybean meal basis declined this week due to the increase in the futures price, with the spot price rising less than the futures. The rapeseed meal basis also declined for the same reason. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, mainly due to the larger decline in rapeseed meal prices [30][31][34][40]. 3.3.2 External Market - **External Market Trends**: The external and domestic markets rebounded after a correction. After the expectation of China - US negotiations and news of soybean purchases, US soybean prices rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed the cost increase. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - position funds [45][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - In the soybean production areas, the crushing profit in the US has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, while the monthly crushing volume has remained at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has rebounded due to the decline in rapeseed prices [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - China mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing, with a relatively small volume of direct imports of meal. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the profit under the current 13% tariff on US soybeans. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and domestic soybean crushing is expected to decline seasonally. Although rapeseed imports offer crushing profits, due to import margin factors, subsequent ship bookings are expected to remain cautious [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, in terms of production, after a significant downward revision of the planted area in August, the area is expected to marginally increase, and after the yield was adjusted to the highest level in history, it is expected to marginally decline in subsequent months. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. In terms of demand, the crushing volume will continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above - normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to the balance sheet released by the government in November [61]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the opening of US soybean imports, domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the lack of effective import profit, but will start to recover in the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed imports will continue to remain at a low level [63]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory carried over from the third quarter, combined with fourth - quarter arrivals, is expected to keep the crushing volume at a high level. After high - level pre - stocking of domestic soybean meal, subsequent consumption is unlikely to increase significantly [66]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as soybean imports decrease, and is expected to stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The raw material inventory of domestic soybean meal will also decrease, and the crushing volume will decline. The soybean meal inventory is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oilseed and oil sectors are facing various supply - demand challenges. The oilmeal market has potential supply contractions, while the oil market is generally weak with high inventories. Without bio - diesel speculation, the oil market is likely to return to a weak fundamental state and may experience further short - term adjustments [6][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilmeal Market 1.1 Soybean Meal - In August, the USDA cut the U.S. soybean area, potentially leading to a supply contraction in the global market in the fourth quarter. The U.S. soybean is entering the harvest period, and its inventory is expected to decline. There is uncertainty about Sino - U.S. tariffs, and domestic soybean purchases in November are not active. The domestic spot price has stopped falling and is in a low - level oscillation. As the domestic futures market drops, the spot basis strengthens, presenting opportunities for a low - level rebound [6]. 1.2 Rapeseed Meal - The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The potential anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant drop in imports, but there is uncertainty before the tariffs are finalized. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and insufficient imports may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of domestic rapeseed meal and oil. The domestic rapeseed meal market has price but low trading volume, with low overall inventory, and the medium - term outlook is positive. The uncertainty lies in future tariff negotiations with Canada and the implementation of import policies [6]. 2. Oil Market 2.1 Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil production is increasing, leading to high - level inventory accumulation. The price difference with other oils may cause demand substitution. After the speculation on soybean oil exports, there is no further progress. If exports do not meet expectations, the domestic market may face an oversupply situation. Future attention should be paid to the price difference and substitution effects of overseas bio - diesel and palm oil [37]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a high - level oscillation. The delay of Indonesia's B50 program may weaken the bio - diesel outlook. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory build - up is not over. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and bio - diesel. Domestic inventory is high and increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Higher import costs may lead to price drops if the overseas market weakens [38]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector lacks new topics, and during the off - season, inventory reduction is slow, putting pressure on the market. However, anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce the supply of rapeseed oil. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal purchasing willingness and weak trading in many regions, and the basis continues to decline slightly [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]