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油料产业风险管理日报-20250814
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]
油料产业风险管理日报-20250718
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 12:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].
油料产业风险管理日报-20250703
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 12:26
油料产业风险管理日报 2025/07/03 边舒扬(投资咨询证号:Z0012647) 靳晚冬(期货从业证号:F03118199) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕:2800-3300 | 12.2% | 17.7% | | 菜粕:2450-2750 | 0.1518 | 0.1792 | source: 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高,担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失,可以根据在企业库存情况,做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润,弥补企业的生产 ...
油料产业风险管理日报-20250701
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 11:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].
油料产业风险管理日报-20250627
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 13:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil and fat logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node to confirm the planting area, and after the announcement, the weather conditions in the production area should be continuously monitored. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and bottom - fishing for far - month contracts are suitable [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1857 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3888 [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When the protein inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in meal prices, traders with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills with short positions can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market's previous oil - related trading logic has weakened, and the US soybean is at a key time for planting area confirmation. The domestic market has near - month pressure and far - month supply gap and weather speculation logic [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Bearish Interpretation - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures market through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6]. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream has a low cost - performance ratio for adding rapeseed meal. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow that of soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oil Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2987, up 4 (0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2707, down 3 (- 0.11%); soybean meal 09 is 2946, up 10 (0.34%) [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2290, down 15 (- 0.65%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2321, down 9 (- 0.39%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2559, up 9 (0.35%) [10]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: The closing price is 1016.25, unchanged (0%) [10]. - **Off - shore RMB**: The closing price is 7.1619, down 0.0128 (- 0.18%) [10]. 3.7 Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 280, up 7; M05 - 09 is - 239, down 13; M09 - 01 is - 41, up 6 [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spread of RM01 - 05 is - 31, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 238, down 18; RM09 - 01 is 269, up 24 [11]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2840, unchanged; the basis is - 106, down 10. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2578, down 23; the basis is 28, up 15. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 262, unchanged; the futures spread is 387, up 1 [11]. 3.8 Oil Import Cost and Crushing Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4493.3329 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and down 0.0643 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3738.92 yuan/ton, up 0.38 yuan/ton and down 138.33 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 700.3529 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and up 108.2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 229.0205 yuan/ton, up 28.0974 yuan/ton and unchanged week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 87 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton and down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 80 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton and down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [12].
油料产业风险管理日报-20250624
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 13:40
Report Overview - The report is the Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily, dated June 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node for confirming the planting area, and the weather conditions in the producing areas should be continuously monitored after the announcement. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and buying far - month contracts on dips are suitable strategies [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.9%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1551 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1961 [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Feed mills with low regular purchase inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Core Contradictions - The external market's oil - trading logic hype has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the planting - area confirmation time. In the domestic market, near - month prices are suppressed by real - world pressure, while far - month contracts have supply - gap and weather - speculation factors [4] 利多解读 - No content provided 利空解读 - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse - receipt registration, likely leading to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil - mill operating rates are rising, and extraction has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6] - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the third quarter remains abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6] - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and the downstream finds adding rapeseed meal lack cost - effectiveness. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly follow the soybean meal market with a weak outlook [6] Futures Price - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3069, down 4 (- 0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2747, down 6 (- 0.22%); soybean meal 09 is 3037, unchanged (0%) [7] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2374, down 4 (- 0.17%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2375, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2662, up 5 (0.19%) [10] - **Other Futures**: The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1046.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1801, down 0.0201 (- 0.28%) [10] Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4 [11] - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9 [11] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2900, down 20, and the basis is - 137, down 20. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2619, down 2, and the basis is - 38, up 20. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 281, down 20, and the futures spread is 375, down 5 [11] Import Cost and Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4632.1082 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and down 0.0108 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3830.16 yuan/ton, down 39.56 yuan/ton and up 11.47 yuan/ton week - on - week [12] - **Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 777.3132 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and up 18.4175 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 202.901 yuan/ton, down 15.9385 yuan/ton and down 0.152 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton and up 111 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot profit is 118 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton and up 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]
油料产业风险管理日报-20250610
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:30
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The external market is strong under the expectation of China-US talks, and the market expects the data in the June USDA report to be basically stable. As it gradually enters the critical period of US soybean planting, the market is more sensitive to weather impacts. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply pressure in the near - term makes the rebound of the M09 contract lack sustainable momentum. Under the background of the strong external market, it is difficult to short - sell the near - term contract alone. Therefore, it is more appropriate to go long on the far - term contract when the long - term logic of the far - term contract is not falsified [4] - There are multiple factors supporting the far - term contract, including the cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks, the bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation, and the support from the Brazilian export premium [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1746 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.309 [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks is favorable for the far - term contract [9] - The bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation [9] - The support from the Brazilian export premium on the far - term contract price [9] Bearish Factors - The large supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter will keep the spot basis weak, while the futures market is strong before the weather - related speculation [6] - The estimated soybean arrivals are 11 million tons in the subsequent part of June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US talks needs to be monitored in the fourth quarter [6] - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - term, the rigid demand is limited. With the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and the China - Canada trade relationship should be focused on [6] Price and Spread - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) and rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3068, up 8 (0.26%) [7][10] - The price differences between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For instance, the M01 - 05 spread is 336, up 4 [11] Import Cost and Profit - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans (23% tariff), Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4506.8065 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily, and the import profit is - 692.2415 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily [12]
油料产业风险管理日报-20250609
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 11:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main logic of the external market lies in the speculation on the planting weather of US soybeans, which is gradually recovering under the China-US peace talks. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the near - month and spot prices of meal products. However, the long - position speculation on the weather market and the unfalsifiable expectation of supply gap due to the trade war in the far - month contracts lead to a stronger far - month trend [4]. - The supply pressure in the second quarter and the third quarter is relatively large, resulting in a weak performance of the spot basis. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter ship purchases. On the rapeseed meal side, the spot supply pressure remains, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The far - month supply has the expectation of Sino - Canadian relations improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.5%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1765 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.3218 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3060 | 12 | 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2728 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3010 | 52 | 1.76% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2347 | 34 | 1.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2360 | 9 | 0.38% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2608 | 41 | 1.6% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1058 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1862 | 0 | 0% | [5][8] 3.4 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 327 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 289 | - 26 | | M09 - 01 | - 38 | 7 | | RM01 - 05 | - 4 | 12 | | RM05 - 09 | - 257 | - 19 | | RM09 - 01 | 261 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2840 | 40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 170 | - 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2492 | - 2 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 116 | - 43 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 348 | 42 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 402 | 0 | [9] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/Ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4498.7624 | 0 | - 0.0375 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3780.97 | 55.27 | 122.8 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.5061 | - 5.6889 | - 7.639 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 704.3824 | 0 | 61.638 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 248.0694 | 3.278 | - 0.0526 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 39 | 117 | 94 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 23 | 120 | 91 | [10]