Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]