FICC日报 | 2025-11-20 财政隐忧致日债抛售，关注美国9月非农数据 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，关 注后续经济情况。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一 步促进消费政策措施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。11月18日和19日，中荷双方政府部门在北京就安世半导体问题举 行了两轮面对面磋商，荷兰政府宣布暂停对安世半导体的行政令。11月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the leader of the Japan Restoration Party, Maehara Seiji, has stated that there are no plans to join the alliance led by Ishiba Shigeru [1] - Maehara has previously mentioned the necessity of a supplementary budget, but has not received any response regarding this matter [1] - Ishiba has indicated that he will provide a sincere response regarding the Alaska liquefied natural gas project [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean National Assembly has passed a supplementary budget of approximately 31.8 trillion won (about 100 billion RMB) to stimulate economic recovery amid challenges such as weak consumer demand, business difficulties, and rising trade risks due to the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" from the US [1] - Some institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for South Korea this year, showing optimism about the effects of the supplementary budget [1] - The supplementary budget is expected to push South Korea's national debt to exceed 1,300 trillion won by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - This is the second supplementary budget for the year, increasing by about 1.3 trillion won compared to the original proposal submitted by the government [1] - Approximately 12.17 trillion won will be allocated for issuing consumer vouchers to all citizens, while about 10.3 trillion won will be used to cover tax revenue shortfalls [1] - The government will also implement debt relief measures for small and micro enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean National Assembly recently passed a supplementary budget of approximately 31.8 trillion KRW (about 31.8 trillion KRW equals 100 billion RMB) to stimulate economic recovery amid challenges such as weak consumption and rising trade risks due to the US's so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The supplementary budget is expected to increase South Korea's GDP growth rate by 0.14 to 0.32 percentage points, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays raising their GDP growth forecasts to around 1% [2] - The budget includes 12.17 trillion KRW for consumer vouchers and 10.3 trillion KRW to cover tax revenue shortfalls, along with debt relief measures for small and micro enterprises [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising regarding the increasing fiscal burden, as the total fiscal expenditure in 2025 is projected to reach 703.3 trillion KRW, with government debt as a percentage of GDP rising from 48.4% to 49.1% [2] - The supplementary budget was passed just before the deadline for US tariff negotiations, with South Korean officials engaging in discussions with US counterparts regarding tariff exemptions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government is pushing for a supplementary budget to restore livelihoods, with plans to outline this in the cabinet meeting on the 19th [1] Group 1 - The supplementary budget aims to address economic challenges and support citizens' living conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has called for the rapid preparation of a supplementary budget to support economic recovery and stimulate consumption [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The newly appointed President Lee Jae-myung has prioritized economic recovery and established an emergency economic task force composed of government officials [1] - Concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs have led to stagnation in exports and consumption, resulting in expectations for interest rate cuts and an economic contraction in South Korea [1] Group 2: Budget Details - If the additional budget is finalized under President Lee's leadership, it will increase the previously approved supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion Korean won (approximately 9.7 billion USD) from May 1 [1] - During his campaign, President Lee emphasized the necessity of an additional budget to provide short-term economic stimulus [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese ruling coalition officials unanimously agree on the necessity of drafting a supplementary budget in the fall to fund a new stimulus plan [1] - The government led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is under pressure to take additional measures before the scheduled Senate elections in July [1] - The aim of the supplementary budget is to mitigate the economic impact of increased tariffs imposed by the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that the government is not considering new economic measures as it has just begun implementing the supplementary budget for the last fiscal year and this year's budget [1] Group 1 - The government will continue to implement emergency measures in response to U.S. tariff actions [1] - Due to the need to fund social security costs, it is not appropriate to lower the sales tax [1] - The government aims to maintain fiscal availability to prepare for potential crises [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, stated that the government currently has no plans to compile a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year [1]