Core Viewpoint - The recent loss of the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Japan's House of Councillors election marks a significant political setback, as it is the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it has failed to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet [1][2]. Political Impact - The ruling coalition, consisting of the LDP and Komeito, lost its majority in the House of Councillors, with the opposition and independents securing 76 seats, reaching a total of 124 seats out of 248 [2][3]. - This election result is seen as a referendum on Ishiba's governance and Japan's economic policies, particularly in light of ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and rising inflation [1][2]. Economic Concerns - The political instability has led to significant market volatility, with fears of a "triple whammy" in stocks, bonds, and currency markets following the election results [2][6]. - Japan's long-term government bond yields surged due to market concerns over potential fiscal expansion beyond the government's capacity [1][6]. - The economic outlook is further complicated by rising inflation and the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have already led to a decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. [9][10]. Market Reactions - Following the election, the Japanese yen initially strengthened against the dollar, reflecting market adjustments to the political risk, although the overall trend suggests a potential depreciation of the yen due to fiscal expansion policies and external pressures [6][7]. - The Japanese stock market's future remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting that the loss of a majority may hinder the government's ability to implement effective economic policies, potentially dampening investor confidence [8][10]. Governance Challenges - Analysts indicate that Ishiba's administration faces significant challenges in policy implementation, particularly regarding tax cuts and social security issues, amidst a backdrop of declining public support [3][5]. - The political landscape is shifting towards a more fragmented system, which may complicate long-term economic reforms and exacerbate existing structural issues within Japan's economy [5][9].

2025.07. 09 本文字数：1537，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 近日，日本内阁府公布的5月景气动向指数显示，对经济形势的总体评估自2020年7月以来首次转为"恶 化"，上个月为"止跌"。从定义上来说，这表明日本经济处于衰退局面的可能性很高。 此前，日本今年一季度经济数据已拉响警报。日本政府发布的数据显示，日本2025年一季度实际GDP比 上季度（环比）减少0.2%，换算成年率（年化）为下降0.7%。这是日本GDP四个季度来首次呈现环比负 增长。 野村综合研究所首席经济学家木内登英曾表示，美国政府关税政策的影响"可能在二季度更加显著，届时 将进一步把日本经济推向衰退"。 据央视新闻报道，7日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂的信件，宣布美国将 自2025年8月1日起对所有日本输美产品征收25%的关税。 日本经济拉响警报（来源：新华社资料图） 具体数值显示，反映当前经济状况的指数为115.9，环比下降0.1个百分点。这是两个月以来再次下降。 在构成该指数的10个项目中，有5个项目是负面因素。其中，出口及批发销售额是主要负面因素。此外， 分析认为，特朗普政府的关税政策 ...

Group 1 - Japan's household consumption showed the fastest growth in nearly three years in May, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [5] - The Cabinet Office's May economic index assessment turned negative for the first time since July 2020, suggesting a high likelihood of recession [1] - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the first negative growth in four quarters [1] Group 2 - The current economic index stands at 115.9, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline, with five out of ten components showing negative factors [3] - Japan's exports fell to 8.135 trillion yen in May, a 1.7% year-on-year decrease, marking the first decline in eight months [3] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by significant drops in automotive exports (down 6.9%), steel exports (down 20.6%), and mineral fuel exports (down 50.7%) [3] Group 3 - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, the largest decline in 20 months, despite a nominal wage increase of 1.0% [4] - The consumer price index in Japan rose by 4.0% in May, remaining above 4% for six consecutive months [4] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, indicating a potential return of market volatility [4] Group 4 - The increase in household spending in May was driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and travel, surpassing economists' expectations [5] - Consumer spending accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, making it a crucial indicator of economic vitality [5] - The sustainability of this consumption growth is contingent on real wage increases, as ongoing inflation could erode household purchasing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]