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宝城期货煤焦早报-20250626
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 02:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both the short - term and medium - term views for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the stronger side", and the overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of June 25, the main coking coal contract closed at 807.0 points, with a 2.02% increase during the night session. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has shrunk due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and operational pressure, and the price inversion of imported coal has curbed imports, alleviating the pessimistic supply - side expectations. However, the geopolitical issue between Iran and Israel has temporarily subsided, and with the end of the safety month in June, there is an expectation of increased supply in July, so the main coking coal contract is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of June 25, the main coke contract closed at 1386.0 yuan/ton, with a 1.17% increase. The latest quotation of the flat - closing price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, a 3.94% week - on - week decrease; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1150 yuan/ton, a 1.71% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Core Logic**: As positive factors accumulate, the previously pessimistic market sentiment has changed, and the game between long and short positions has intensified, leading to a wide - range oscillation of coke futures at a low level. Although coking coal supply has shrunk in June, it is expected to recover after the safety month, and the long - term export of ferrous metal terminals still faces pressure. Therefore, the coke futures are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in June [6].