整体来看，鉴于决策者对美国通胀居高不下的担忧，市场普遍预期美联储至少将维持利率不变至6月， 联邦基金期货市场预计今年降息幅度仅约53个基点，相当于两次25基点的降息，且首次降息可能要等到 7月或9月。这说明降息周期仍在，只是时间早晚的问题，故此，金价仍处于看涨周期中。 另外，PDR黄金ETF持仓数据显示，截至2月25日，全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust的持仓量增 至1097.62吨，较前一交易日增加3.43吨，创下2021年2月以来新高。这一增持信号，充分体现了机构资 金对黄金长期价值的坚定看好。 所以，年内的黄金市场，正处于关税通胀与伊朗核危机交织的黄金窗口期。短期内，春季可能出现盘 整，但任何跌幅和调整都将被不确定性迅速填补。在全球不确定性持续扩散的背景下，黄金作为终极避 险资产与信任锚点的长期价值依然突出，年内金价将继续维持牛市行情，未来一年，随着美联储宽松政 策、美元区间偏弱波动，以及地缘风险难以在短期内彻底消退，黄金仍有望冲击6000美元关口上方。 日图，金价今日多头动力减弱，但也维持在5日均线上方，下方也有众多均线支撑，附图指标也偏向看 涨信号发展，暗示前景偏向继续走强的概率较 ...

Core Points - The recent UN Security Council vote has led to a deadlock between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding nuclear cooperation [1] - Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) announced on October 20 that cooperation with the IAEA has effectively ceased due to the reinstatement of sanctions [1] - The crisis was triggered by the actions of the UK, France, and Germany, which initiated the process to restore sanctions based on Iran's non-compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal [1][2] Summary by Sections Iran's Response - Iran's SNSC emphasized that despite the Foreign Ministry's efforts to cooperate and propose solutions, European nations insisted on advancing sanctions, undermining months of cooperation with the IAEA [1] - The Iranian Foreign Minister met with the IAEA Director General on October 9, reaching a substantive agreement to resume inspections, which was later approved with a condition regarding hostile actions against Iran [1] Key Dates and Developments - A critical date is set for October 27, when if the Security Council does not reach a consensus to terminate sanctions, they will automatically be reinstated [2] - The security status of Iran's nuclear facilities remains a focal point for the international community, especially after attacks in June by Israel and the U.S. [2] International Concerns - Western nations are increasingly worried about Iran potentially developing nuclear weapons, a claim that Tehran has consistently denied [2] - The situation is evolving into a new phase of tension as the countdown to the reinstatement of sanctions progresses, drawing close attention from the international community [2]

Core Viewpoint - Israel is preparing for a potential new military action against Iran, believing that President Trump may approve such an operation in response to Iran's nuclear activities [1] Group 1: Israel's Military Preparedness - Israeli officials are concerned about Iran possibly restarting its nuclear program and are making preparations accordingly [1] - Prime Minister Netanyahu aims to reach a consensus with the U.S. on the "red lines" that could trigger military action against Iran [1] Group 2: U.S.-Israel Relations - During a dinner meeting at the White House, Netanyahu and Trump discussed the future of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and potential military responses [1] - A senior advisor to Netanyahu indicated that the Trump administration has signaled support for Israeli strikes under certain conditions [1] Group 3: Triggering Conditions for Military Action - Specific scenarios that could lead to Israeli military action include Iran's attempts to relocate high-enriched uranium from damaged facilities and the rebuilding of its nuclear program, particularly uranium enrichment facilities [1]