Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the logic of low apple premium fruit rate may support price increase before the end of the year, but there may be a situation of high opening and low closing later. For AP2511 and AP2512 contracts, the delivery logic will support price increase, while the AP2601 contract may be a watershed with a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The price fluctuation range of the AP2601 contract in Q4 is predicted to be 8300 - 9300, with an overall structure of rising first and then falling [2] - The later trend of apples may replicate the 23/24 production season. The AP2511 and AP2512 contracts still have the possibility of further increase, but the AP2601 contract as the main contract has a low possibility of maintaining a high price [26] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3 2025, the apple futures price fluctuated and rose, with a quarterly increase of nearly 14% and more than 1000 points. The core factor was the concern that the low premium fruit rate would lead to fewer deliverable fruits. There were three stages of increase: in July, affected by the lower - than - expected quality of early - maturing varieties and low inventory of late Fuji, the price rose, with a large - amplitude callback at the end of July and early August; from August to early September, due to the prominent problem of premium fruit rate of Gala and bad weather, the price rose with better continuity, and there was a 4% decline on September 9; from mid - to late September, after the decline on September 9 was quickly repaired, the price continued to rise, reaching a new high of 8619 on September 29 [3] Chapter 3: Core Concerns 3.1 This year's apple quality problems are numerous - **Inventory situation**: In the 24/25 season, due to the concern of over - production, the入库 amount was lower than expected. The de - stocking speed was fast before June and slowed down after entering the off - season. As of September 25, the national apple inventory was 14.79 million tons according to Zhuochuang data and 12.18 million tons according to Steel Union data, both slightly lower than last year and at a historically low level [8] - **Yield situation**: The apple planting area in the 25/26 season is similar to that in the 24/25 season. According to bagging data, Zhuochuang predicts a yield of 3659.04 million tons, a 2.03% year - on - year decrease, while Steel Union predicts 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase. Overall, the yield change is about ±2% compared with last year. After entering the bag - removing period, the small fruit size of late Fuji became prominent, and the national yield is likely to be revised down [13][14] - **Quality situation**: This year's apple quality problems were prominent in early - maturing fruits, including small fruit size, green - returning, and water - cracking. The price of early - maturing Qin Yang showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. The quality problems of Gala apples were mainly fruit rust and water - cracking, with a serious market polarization. The size of Western early Fuji was smaller than before, and the price first rose and then fell. The price of Shandong Red General also declined. The price of early - picked Fuji was higher than last year, but the size of late Fuji was smaller than last year, and the National Day rain may affect the quality [19][20] 3.2 How many deliverable fruits are there? - Due to the poor quality of apples in the 25/26 production season, the number of deliverable fruits will be far less than that in the 24/25 production season. For now, it's impossible to estimate the number of apples meeting the delivery rules. The AP2510 and AP2511 contracts may have high - price deliveries, and the AP2601 contract may have the most intense delivery game. The 03, 04, and 05 contracts have great uncertainties and are more affected by consumption factors [24] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Apple Valuation Feedback - Using simple statistics, the current apple valuation is at about 75% of the past five - year level, relatively high but still with upward space. Since the listing of apples, the current price is less than 50%. The apple futures delivery rules have been modified many times. There is a possibility that the later trend of apples will replicate the 23/24 production season [25] 4.2 Apple Supply - Demand Outlook - Apple supply is basically determined with the harvest of late Fuji, and the final confirmation is when the cold - storage inventory data is released. This year, the inventory may be higher due to the expected yield reduction, late harvest, small fruit size, and poor quality. The consumption end needs to focus on key nodes such as the Spring Festival, and the apple price has tended to decline after the Spring Festival in the past few years [28]