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神农集团(605296):2024年年报与2025年一季报点评:成本优异,优质成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-20 04:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The report identifies the company as a high-quality breeding target with excellent cost management, rapid expansion, and extremely low debt levels. The latest complete cost is 12 RMB/kg, the lowest among listed companies. The target for 2025 is to reach an output of 3.2 to 3.5 million heads, with a goal of 5 million heads by 2027. The company has a very low debt ratio and ample funds, indicating strong certainty in low costs and high growth potential. The management team has a high level of expertise, with both the chairman and the head of breeding being graduates from South China Agricultural University [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 690 million RMB, and for Q1 2025, it is about 230 million RMB, both showing a year-on-year turnaround to profitability [4]. - The company’s breeding business is expected to contribute significantly to profits, with projections of 927 million RMB and 1.16 billion RMB in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][4]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company’s output for 2024 is projected at 2.27 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 49%, with a sales price of approximately 16.2 RMB/kg and a complete cost of about 13.9 RMB/kg. The average profit per head is 285 RMB, leading to a breeding business profit of around 620 million RMB [9]. - For Q1 2025, the company expects to sell approximately 860,000 heads, a 73% increase year-on-year, with a sales price of 14.9 RMB/kg and a complete cost of 12.4 RMB/kg, resulting in an average profit of 308 RMB per head [9]. Growth Strategy - The company has maintained a debt ratio below 30% since its listing, with annual capital expenditures around 1 billion RMB from 2021 to 2024, supporting sustainable growth. The output is expected to grow from 650,000 heads in 2021 to 2.27 million heads in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% from 2024 to 2027 [9].