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2025年度猛兽股轻盘点
猛兽派选股· 2026-01-01 04:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of stocks categorized as "猛兽股" (beast stocks), focusing on those with a price increase of over 4 times within a year, and highlights the emergence of two distinct trading patterns: the traditional trend model and the volume accumulation model [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - The selection formula for identifying beast stocks is based on a specific calculation involving the highest high and lowest low over a defined period [1]. - A total of 99 stocks were identified in the market, with 40 stocks filtered through an earnings pre-selection pool, although the specific list is not provided [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Patterns - The current bull market has seen a significant increase in the volume accumulation model, with a ratio of approximately 6:4 compared to the traditional model [2]. - The volume accumulation model results in steeper price increase slopes and shorter time frames for achieving similar gains, with some stocks completing significant price movements in just days or weeks [2]. - The rise of quantitative trading is closely linked to the volume accumulation model, which emphasizes high-frequency trading and rapid turnover, previously dominated by speculative funds [2]. Group 3: Differences Between Trading Models - The traditional trend model is closely tied to earnings growth, while the volume accumulation model shows little correlation with earnings performance [2][5]. - Stocks selected under the traditional model are fundamentally different from those in the volume accumulation model, reflecting divergent views on the importance of fundamentals versus short-term market sentiment [4][5]. Group 4: Commonalities and Market Implications - Both trading models exhibit a common principle of minimal drawdowns during trends, with only a small fraction of the selected stocks experiencing significant pullbacks [5]. - The average drawdown for potential bull stocks in 2025 is lower than in previous years, theoretically making it easier to hold positions [5]. - The emergence of the volume accumulation model presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, suggesting a need for diversification in investment strategies [5].