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港股策略月报:2025年11月港股市场月度展望及配置策略-20251103
Zhe Shang Guo Ji Jin Rong Kong Gu· 2025-11-03 11:47
Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [3][6] - The market experienced significant fluctuations in October, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a peak on October 2 before declining due to concerns over US-China trade tensions, ultimately closing below 26,000 points [4][13] - The macroeconomic environment shows a weakening fundamental backdrop, with domestic economic data indicating a continued bottoming phase, while policy focus is on technological innovation and expanding domestic demand [5][31] Group 2 - In October, the valuation levels of the Hong Kong stock market decreased, with the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio dropping from 13.18 to 12.76, indicating a market valuation above the five-year average [19][20] - Southbound capital inflows showed a significant decrease in October, with net purchases amounting to 92.5 billion HKD, although the overall trend remains positive, providing liquidity support to the market [25][30] - The performance of various sectors in October was mixed, with defensive sectors like energy and utilities rebounding while previously strong sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals faced corrections [14][19] Group 3 - The domestic economic outlook is closely tied to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the majority of earnings coming from Chinese companies, highlighting the importance of monitoring China's economic indicators [31] - Key economic data for September showed a GDP growth of 4.8%, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.0%, indicating weakening consumer demand [32][33] - Investment in fixed assets continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 7.1% in September, primarily driven by a significant decrease in real estate investment [36][44] Group 4 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and industrial upgrading, aiming to enhance domestic demand and improve the consumption environment [64] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and cautious stance on future rate adjustments are critical factors influencing the Hong Kong market, as external economic conditions remain uncertain [65][66] - The overall economic environment in the US shows moderate expansion, but uncertainties persist, particularly regarding inflation and employment data, which could impact market sentiment [67][68]