市场策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 0825 港股日评：三大股指上涨，港股通钢铁领 涨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 8 月 25 日，港股市场大市成交额达到 3697.0 亿港元，南向资金净卖出 13.76 亿港元。 港股三大股指上涨，主要是因为：（1）美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会释放鸽派信号， 暗示政策调整可能，市场押注 9 月降息概率上升至 85%以上，全球风险偏好上升，外资加速回 流低估值的新兴市场；（2）6 月以来港股市场表现略逊于 A 股，恒生科技及恒生指数仍有补涨 空间；（3）政策带动港股互联网权重股上涨。 丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 0825 港股日评：三大股指上涨，港股通钢铁领 2] 涨 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 港股市场方面，恒生指数上涨 1.94%报 25829.91，恒生科技上涨 3.14%报 5825 ...

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰创业板50ETF发起联接C（023372），国泰创业板50ETF发起联接A （023371）。 东吴证券指出，当前市场行情的中期主线仍以AI科技为核心，创业板50作为成长风格代表指数，其成 分行业如电子、通信等表现突出。数据显示，通信、电子位列申万一级行业涨幅前两名，显著跑赢大 盘。建议关注科技成长板块的结构性机会。市场风险偏好回升背景下，创业板50作为聚焦新质生产力的 宽基指数，其行业集中度与政策红利或将继续支撑相对收益表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅可达20%。该指数从深圳 证券交易所上市的成长型企业中筛选出50只具有高流动性和大市值特征的证券作为指数样本，重点覆盖 信息技术、新能源、金融科技及医药等新质生 ...

流动性改善前景下，多家机构看好恒生科技后续走势。招商证券观点认为，短期市场对美联储降息预期 兑现过程中改善美元流动性，叠加本地流动性压力缓解，前期相比A股滞涨的港股有望得到提振，看好 恒生科技、港股创新药的投资机会。该机构认为，当下市场正处于牛市阶段II，而这一阶段的特点是资 金驱动、赛道为王，建议下一阶段关注创新药，CXO，国产算力，机器人，国产AI Agent几大赛道。华 泰证券同样指出，恒生科技指数近期涨幅相对较小，海外流动性宽松+AI科技主题+部分公司业绩有望 形成一定共振，恒生科技或是弹性品种。 8月25日，港股三大指数高开高走，恒生指数盘中涨超2%创2021年来新高，恒生科技指数涨超3%。盘 面上，科网股全线上涨，有色金属板块走强，内房股普涨，新消费概念分化，汽车股多数上涨。近期热 度较高的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数强势上扬，持仓股中，蔚来、阿里巴巴、百度集团、网 易、地平线机器人、联想集团等领涨，其中，蔚来午后一度涨超16%。截至发文，恒生科技指数ETF （513180）盘中成交额已突破75亿元。 鲍威尔罕见"放鸽"，美联储降息预期显著回温，海外流动性有望持续好转。截至发文，CM ...

从车身比例来看，车窗与车身比例达到1：1.2，接近豪华车型的视觉效果，营造出挺拔的姿态。通过优化车身线条与细节 处理，该车实现了0.285Cd的超低风阻系数，在保障设计美感的同时，有助于降低能耗、提升续航表现。此外，新车提供6种外 观车色与2种内饰颜色选择，满足消费者个性化需求。空间表现上，吉利银河M9车身尺寸为5205mm×1999mm×1800mm，轴距 超过3米，车内面积达5.2㎡，得房率为88.3%，在同级别车型中处于领先水平。该车采用"三排平权"的六座布局设计，通过差异 化配置满足不同座位的使用需求。 为适配多样化用车场景，该车开发了"百变魔方舒享空间"系统，支持常用空间模式一键8调，包括双侧沙滩椅模式、三排 观影沙发模式及后排大床房模式等。同时，车辆可实现满配六座与尊享四座的灵活切换，覆盖家庭出行、休闲娱乐等多种场 景。 本报讯 （记者刘钊）8月23日，吉利银河品牌旗下首款"AI科技大六座旗舰SUV"——吉利银河M9正式启动全球预售。此次 共推出6个版型，涵盖210km四驱领航版、230km两驱探索版、230km两驱智航版、100km两驱智航版、230km两驱远航版及 100km两驱启航版，预售价 ...

基本内容 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议中转鸽来的毫无预兆，且一些言论与 7 月 FOMC 记者发布会的表态背道而驰。在对经济的回 顾与展望中，鲍威尔对于劳动力市场的观点产生了 180 度转变，开始极度担忧就业下行风险。 这种参考系的转变与 7 月不降息十分类似，很难用单纯的经济数据变化来解释，或许证明了特朗普对联储的政治高压 终于取得回报。 尽管联储对于 2025 年的降息预期一直保持在2 次（50bp），但这次如此清晰的鸽派信号，加强的不仅仅是9 月降息 25bp， 更是年内连续降息的可能。 我们想提醒的是，偏宽松的货币政策环境和偏鸽派的政策框架的副作用是不容忽视的；美国未来更难控制的通胀动态。 大幅降息后，一个再加速的美国经济必然面临着更高的通胀中枢；今年更"滞"，明年更"胀"。这也意味着美国对于 AI 科技大幅提升生产效率的的押注必须延续，某种程度上这是美国的国家意志。 风险提示 1）特朗普的政策不确定性加大，带来金融市场更明显的动荡和海外资金更快逃离美元。2）全球经济在关税越发明确 的情况下受到更大影响，下半年全球同步宽松幅度超预期，甚至带来全球共振扩表，明显缓解长端利率压力。3）技 术突破带来制造业回流加 ...

这个问题到现在是众说纷纭，反正怎么说看似都对。牛市涨到后面就是一场又一场的心理和情绪博弈。 但是一个牛市想要保持持久，光有情绪是不够的，还是需要低下头来看看影响牛市的宏观基本面和政策。 尤其是政策氛围，鼓励和不鼓励，刺激和不刺激，差别就非常大。 今年下半年影响牛市走势的有一个非常关键的因素，需要大家持续去追踪。 又一次见证历 史，大A拿出了六亲不认的步伐，在昨天冲破3800点。 上证指数上涨1.35%，深指上涨2.07%，创业板上涨3.36%，涨势凶猛得吓人。 身在其中，好久没见过这种架势了，这种上涨涨得人焦虑，感觉每时每刻挣得都是刀口舔血的钱。 横亘在咱们股民心里的一个小问号，时不时的就跳出来。 这一次的牛市，是不是真的不一样？ 大洋彼岸美联储在9月份能不能降息，会对我们这轮牛市的进程和波动造成比较大的影响。 这几天围绕着美联储能不能降息的博弈，真的是惊心动魄一波三折。 特朗普力推美联储降息，一再朝美联储施加压力。前一段他刚刚提名了斯蒂芬.米兰出任美联储理事，这两天又用房贷资料的问题逼另一个美联储 理事库克辞职。同时加大了对鲍威尔的攻击力度。 看似美联储9月降息已经是板上钉钉的事儿，但是现在传出来美联储要公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese internet ETF (159607) has shown positive performance with a 1.55% increase, indicating a recovery in the sector and potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the Chinese internet ETF has risen by 1.55%, with notable gains from stocks like Manbang, BOSS Zhipin, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou [1]. - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover of 13.33% and a transaction value of 142 million yuan, reflecting strong market engagement [3]. - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved an average daily trading volume of 366 million yuan and a net asset value increase of 40.41% [3]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Valuation - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 40.52% and an average monthly return of 8.53% [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the ETF is 18.43, which is below the historical average, indicating a low valuation compared to the past five years [3]. Group 3: Company Earnings - Companies like Kuaishou and Bilibili have recently reported their Q2 earnings, with Bilibili achieving a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 20%, and record net profits [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, August is seen as a favorable time to invest in the internet sector, with AI-related industries expected to see breakthroughs in the second half of the year [4]. - The internet sector is anticipated to shift focus from "takeout competition" narratives back to AI and technology growth stories [4]. Group 5: Top Holdings - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, Meituan, NetEase, JD.com, Trip.com, Baidu, and Kuaishou, collectively accounting for 86.33% of the index [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent detention of Wang Yihui, the actual controller and chairman of Wantong Development, has raised concerns about the company's operations, despite assurances that it will not affect the acquisition of a semiconductor business [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Wantong Development operates primarily in three sectors: communication and digital technology, operational property asset management, and real estate development and sales [2]. - The company has been exploring transformation in the communication and digital technology sector but has faced challenges, as indicated by its financial performance [3]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Wantong Development reported revenues of 422 million yuan, 487 million yuan, and 495 million yuan, respectively, showing a slight upward trend [3]. - However, the net profit attributable to shareholders showed a continuous decline, with losses of 323 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 457 million yuan during the same period [3]. - The company has also faced investment setbacks, with long-term equity investments resulting in a recognized investment loss of 44.53 million yuan and impairment provisions of 120 million yuan [3]. Acquisition Plans - Prior to the chairman's detention, Wantong Development announced plans to invest 854 million yuan to acquire a 62.98% stake in Beijing Shudu Information Technology Co., Ltd. [4]. - Shudu Technology, established in 2020, focuses on PCIe high-speed switching chips, which are crucial in the AI sector [4]. - The company is currently in the customer introduction phase for its PCIe5.0 chip products, with expectations for mass production by Q4 2025 [4]. Valuation and Performance Commitments - The acquisition of Shudu Technology has raised eyebrows due to its high valuation, with an estimated equity value of 1.272 billion yuan, representing a 1869.01% increase over its net asset value of 64.6 million yuan [5]. - Performance commitments for Shudu Technology include minimum revenue targets of 80 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, totaling at least 1.58 billion yuan [5][6]. - The projected revenues based on the assessment method for the same period are significantly lower, indicating a potential gap of approximately 700 million yuan [5].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on August 20, experiencing a "V" shaped movement, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.57%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.26%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.67% at midday [1] - Large technology stocks continued to drag down market sentiment, while new consumption concept stocks saw a rise, with Pop Mart increasing over 8% and its stock price surpassing 300 HKD, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion HKD [1] Investment Insights - According to Zhongtai Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, showing clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, with southbound funds enhancing their marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong market, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, which will attract more capital allocation to Hong Kong stocks [1] - In the medium to long term, the valuation advantages of the Hong Kong stock market and the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading remain promising, with the technology and consumption sectors likely to continue rising under the dual support of policies and funds [1] ETF Overview - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce and new consumption stocks [1] - The ETF includes major players across various consumption sectors, such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, highlighting its strong technology and consumption attributes [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a trading volume of HKD 278.22 billion on August 19, 2025, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.573 billion. The market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low, influenced by market sentiment fluctuations and sector rotation effects [2][9]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a rise of 3.31%, driven by the government's commitment to hosting international sports events during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to positively impact the industry. The food and beverage sector also benefited from measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, leading to a 1.66% increase [5][9]. - The steel sector gained 2.26% due to the U.S. government's expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, which may favor domestic special steel enterprises with import substitution capabilities [2][9]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.21% to 25,122.9, while the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.67% and 0.30%, respectively. In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 also experienced slight declines [5][9]. - Among the sectors, textiles and apparel, steel, and food and beverage led the gains, while defense and military, electronics, and power equipment and new energy sectors faced declines [5][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates three core directions for the Hong Kong stock market to reach new highs: 1) AI technology and new consumption are expected to have significant growth potential, driving market increases; 2) Continued inflows from southbound funds will enhance pricing power; 3) The transition from loose monetary policy to loose credit, along with potential U.S. interest rate cuts, will support further market growth [9].