低协方差资产重估
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长江电力(600900):整体业绩如期稳健 重申水电长期配置价值
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 06:27
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.056 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [1] - The second quarter saw a net profit of 7.876 billion yuan, up 6.43% year-on-year, driven by favorable water conditions and stable electricity prices [1][2] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decrease in financial expenses by 786 million yuan, exceeding market expectations, attributed to debt restructuring and a favorable interest rate environment [2] - Investment income for the first half of 2025 was 2.589 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 300 million yuan, likely due to the impact of reduced water flow on associated companies [2] Industry Insights - The water power sector has seen a significant increase in valuation due to its low correlation with market volatility, making it an attractive investment in a high-volatility environment [3] - The stability of the water power business model and the regulatory environment is crucial, as any changes could affect discount rates and investment attractiveness [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 34.1 billion, 34.9 billion, and 36 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 20, and 19 times [4] - The historical excess returns of the company are linked to market conditions that have led to multiple revaluations of its earnings stability and cash flow value [4]