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固收深度报告20250805:城投挖系列(十五)之科创兴陕,三秦奋进:陕西省城投债现状4个知多少
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-05 10:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth rate of Shaanxi Province is above the national average, but its fiscal revenue is under pressure, and there is significant differentiation among cities. The debt burden is at a medium level in the country, and the debt structure is expected to gradually optimize in the future [1]. - The scale and cost of Shaanxi's existing urban investment bonds are at a medium - upper level in the country. The credit quality of the bonds is good, mainly short - to medium - term, and the financing cost is expected to decline [1]. - In the first half of 2025, the issuance of Shaanxi's urban investment bonds showed the characteristics of "stable total volume and negative net financing". The financing end will maintain a tight balance, and the incremental financing space may open up in the future [1]. - The overall debt repayment pressure of Shaanxi's urban investment bonds shows a downward trend in steps, but attention should be paid to the credit risk of some platforms in the third quarter of 2025 [2]. - The secondary market trading activity of Shaanxi's urban investment bonds has room for improvement. The yield has been declining, and the credit spread has been narrowing. It is recommended to be cautious when sinking the credit rating [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shaanxi Province Overview 3.1.1 Economic and Fiscal Perspective - In 2024, Shaanxi's GDP was about 3.55 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.30%, higher than the national average. Its per capita GDP was 89,915 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.23% [9]. - The general public budget revenue in 2024 was 339.308 billion yuan, ranking 15th in the country, a year - on - year decrease of 1.30%. The budget expenditure increased slightly, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate decreased by 1.41 pct to 46.50% [14]. - There is significant differentiation in the fiscal strength of cities in Shaanxi. Xi'an has a leading position in fiscal revenue and expenditure, while the fiscal self - sufficiency rates of some cities are less than 25% [20]. - Tax revenue accounts for a relatively high proportion of Shaanxi's general public budget revenue, reaching 93.75% in 2024, but showing a downward trend [26]. 3.1.2 Industrial Layout Perspective - The proportion of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi has gradually exceeded 45% in the past 7 years, while the proportion of the secondary industry has slightly decreased, and the proportion of the primary industry is less than 8%. The economic structure is accelerating its transformation towards a service - led model [32]. - Shaanxi has introduced a series of policies to promote the development of emerging industries, such as the development of the low - altitude manufacturing industry and the digital economy [33]. 3.2 Current Situation of Existing Urban Investment Bonds and Urban Investment Entities in Shaanxi Province 3.2.1 Review of the Changes and Development of Shaanxi's Urban Investment Bonds - The development of urban investment financing in Shaanxi can be traced back to 1992. After several stages of development, the number of urban investment platforms has increased, and debt management has been continuously strengthened [39]. - Since 2018, Shaanxi's debt ratio has shown an upward trend, and the local debt burden has increased. However, the "controlling increment and resolving stock" of urban investment bonds has been effective, and the urban investment debt ratio has decreased in recent years [45]. 3.2.2 Focus on the Current Structure of Existing Bonds - As of July 15, 2025, the balance of Shaanxi's existing urban investment bonds was about 232.748 billion yuan, ranking 12th in the country, and the weighted average coupon rate was about 4.14%, ranking 10th [54]. - In terms of credit rating, AAA and AA+ - rated bonds account for a relatively high proportion. The remaining maturity of bonds is mainly concentrated in the 1 - 3 - year interval, and the bond types are mainly corporate bonds [55]. 3.2.3 Focus on the Current Situation of Urban Investment Entities - As of July 15, 2025, there were 75 urban investment entities in Shaanxi, with 55 having existing bonds. The bond - issuing entities are mainly high - rated municipal and development zone urban investment platforms [63]. - There are 5 urban investment entities with a bond balance of over 10 billion yuan, all with AA+ or above ratings. Xi'an High - tech Holdings Co., Ltd. has the largest balance of existing urban investment bonds [67]. 3.3 Issuance Situation of Shaanxi's Urban Investment Bonds in the Primary Market in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, Shaanxi issued urban investment bonds worth 55.725 billion yuan, ranking 12th in the country, and the cumulative net financing was - 109 million yuan. The issuance showed the characteristics of "stable total volume and negative net financing" [69]. - The average coupon rate of bond issuance in the first half of 2025 was 3.01%, significantly lower than the existing coupon rate. It is expected that the financing cost will continue to decline [70]. - In terms of issuance structure, the issuance scale of AAA - rated entities accounted for more than half. The issuance term was mainly 3 - 5 years, and the bond types were mainly corporate bonds and medium - term notes [74]. 3.4 Debt Repayment Situation of Shaanxi's Urban Investment Bonds in the Next 3 Years - The overall debt repayment pressure of Shaanxi's urban investment bonds shows a downward trend in steps, but attention should be paid to the credit risk of some platforms in the third quarter of 2025 [2]. - The overall debt repayment structure is consistent with the structure of existing bonds, mainly corporate bonds and AAA - rated bonds [2]. 3.5 Secondary Market Transaction and Yield Performance of Shaanxi's Urban Investment Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the secondary market trading volume was about 9.5107 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 62.14%, lower than the national average. The trading activity has room for improvement [2]. - From July 2018 to July 2025, the yield of Shaanxi's urban investment bonds showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the credit spread has narrowed significantly [2]. - The market's expectation of the credit risk of Shaanxi's urban investment bonds has improved, but it is recommended to be cautious when sinking the credit rating [2].