证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 3 月信用，先止盈后布局 [Table_Title2] 2026 信用月报之三 [Table_Summary] ► 3 月初适当止盈高弹性品种，等待月底布局时机 2 月利率小幅震荡下行。期间 10 年国债利率受到机构行为力量推动，一度突破 阻力位至 1.78%；但后续缺乏增量利多，叠加月末"沪七条"地产政策带来的 情绪扰动，长端利率重回 1.80%。信用债收益率普遍下行，信用利差走势分 化，长久期品种表现更好。 展望 3 月，债市多空因素交织，市场走势不确定性上升，叠加当前信用利差已 收窄至历史偏低区间，建议月初对高弹性品种适度止盈，等待 3 月底的布局时 机。3 月影响债市的不确定因素在于：一是伊朗局势升级，避险情绪可能带动 短期内利率下行；但战争引发的输入型通胀压力或导致国内通胀预期抬升，利 率也面临上行压力。二是两会召开在即，叠加 2月 26日"沪七条"楼市新政落 地，市场对稳增长政策力度与节奏的预期或有变化。 此外，关注科创债成分券的超跌修复机会。2 月科创债 ETF 规模小幅回落，成 ...

2月24日，日照城投集团有限公司（下称"日照城投集团"）发布关于控股股东发生变更的公告称，根据日照市人 民政府2025年12月31日出具的《关于印发日照国控投资集团有限公司组建方案的通知》（日政办字〔2025〕30 号），以及日照市人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会（下称"日照市国资委"）2026年1月16日出具的《关于将持 有的日照城投集团有限公司全部国有产权无偿划转至日照国控投资集团有限公司的决定》（日国资字〔2026〕1 号），将日照市国资委持有的日照城投集团100%的国有股权无偿划转至日照国控投资有限公司（下称"日照国控 投资"）。 据悉，以上事项已于2026年2月14日完成工商变更。 | REAN I.JECM | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 258958.SH | 032400731.IB | 102581465.IB | | 255348.SH | 042580329.IB | 102580505.IB | | 255349.SH | 102583154.IB | 102580504.IB | | 253974.SH | 102581934.IB | 102484345.IB ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - standard risk events have significantly eased in 2025, hitting a new low since 2019, mainly due to the implementation of debt - resolution policies, increased attention and initiative of urban investment platforms in non - standard product payments, and bank replacement of non - standard debts [2][6][26][65]. - However, the risk mitigation is structurally differentiated. Some regions and industries still face risks, and the resolution and clearance of non - standard credit risks remain a long - term task. The potential for non - standard risks to spread to priority debts such as bonds still needs attention [3][26][65]. - The debt security of the real estate industry depends on sales revenue. Without improvement in sales, risks are difficult to eliminate unless there is strong support from the actual controller. Tail risks in industries such as industrial holding, diversified finance, and construction also need to be vigilant [3][26][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - standard Default Overall Situation - From 2018 - 2025, there were 7,219 non - standard risk events in total. The number of "default events" reached a peak of 978 in 2023, then decreased significantly in 2024 and 2025, with 165 events in 2025, a decrease of 544 from the previous year [6]. - For different financing methods, the number of trust plan risk events increased from 319 in 2019 to 570 in 2023, then decreased to 210 in 2025. The number of directional financing risk events increased significantly in 2023 - 2024 and decreased to 23 in 2025. The number of non - standard events in financing methods such as financial leasing, private funds, collective wealth management, and fund special accounts decreased year by year [6]. - For bond - issuing entities, the number of non - standard risk events in 2025 was 76, a significant decrease from 218 in 2024. The number of non - standard default events decreased by 86 in 2025 compared with the previous year, and the number of non - standard risk warning events decreased by 56 [8][10]. 3.2 Analysis of Urban Investment Non - standard Risk Events 3.2.1 By Province - Guizhou and Shandong had the most non - standard risk events among urban investment bond - issuing entities since 2018. Guizhou's non - standard default events decreased to 4 in 2025 from a peak of 55 in 2023. Shandong's non - standard default events decreased to 9 in 2025 after a sharp increase in 2023 - 2024. Henan, Yunnan, and Shaanxi also saw a significant decrease in non - standard default events in 2025, and Inner Mongolia had no new non - standard risk events in 2025 [28]. 3.2.2 By Urban Investment Hierarchy - Non - standard defaults of urban investment enterprises mainly occurred at the district - county and prefecture - level city levels. The number of non - standard default events of district - county - level urban investment platforms decreased to 12 in 2025 from 110 in 2023. The number of non - standard default events of prefecture - level city urban investment platforms also decreased in 2025. In 2025, there were no new non - standard default events at the provincial level [34]. 3.2.3 By Prefecture - level City (including Development Zones within Prefecture - level Cities) - The top five prefecture - level cities with the most non - standard default events were Zunyi, Weifang, Xi'an, Kunming, and Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture. In 2025, Weifang and Kunming had new non - standard default events, and Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture had its first non - standard default event at the prefecture - level city level [34]. 3.2.4 By District - county - The top five district - county regions with the most non - standard default events were Hanting District of Weifang, Licang District of Qingdao, Boshan District of Zibo, Dushan County of Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, and Huichuan District of Zunyi. In 2025, the non - standard default events in most districts and counties decreased, and 50 districts and counties had no new non - standard risk events [39]. 3.2.5 Bond - issuing Urban Investment Entities with Multiple Non - standard Defaults - In 2025, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Yunnan were still areas with serious non - standard defaults of urban investment. Urban investment entities in Kunming of Yunnan, Licang District of Qingdao, Hanting District of Weifang, Mengzi City of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture, and Weifang Binhai Economic and Technological Development Zone had 2 or more non - standard default events [44]. 3.2.6 Bond - issuing Urban Investment Entities with First Non - standard Defaults - In 2025, 5 bond - issuing urban investment entities had their first non - standard default, located in Shaanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Fujian, and Yunnan. Rizhao Donggang District, Mianyang Jiangyou City, Putian Hanjiang District, and Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture were new areas with non - standard defaults [46]. 3.3 Analysis of Characteristics of Non - standard Risk Events in 2025 - In 2025, there were 82 non - standard risk events and 69 repayment events. Trust plans had the most non - standard risk events (44 times), including 30 default events. The industries with non - standard risk events were mainly urban investment and real estate development, accounting for 48% and 30% respectively [49][55]. - For bond - issuing entities, there were 23 non - standard risk events, including 19 default events and 4 extension events; 12 repayment events and 9 partial repayment events. In terms of regions, Shandong had the most non - standard risk events (6 times), followed by Shaanxi and Fujian (4 times each) [49][55]. - For urban investment bond - issuing entities, there were 9 default events and 2 extension events, involving 8 entities. The default events were mainly in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Guizhou. In terms of hierarchy, non - standard risk events occurred at the district - county and national new - area levels [58]. - There were 16 non - standard repayment events of urban investment bond - issuing entities in 2025, including 10 full - repayment events and 6 partial - repayment events. Other industries had 12 non - standard risk events, mainly in the real estate industry [59][63]. 3.4 Summary - Non - standard risk events have improved significantly in 2025, but the risk mitigation is structural. The non - standard debt is still in an inferior position in the repayment order, and the debt continuation in weak regions is still difficult. The potential spread of non - standard risks to priority debts needs attention [65][66]. - In the real estate industry, debt security depends on sales revenue. Tail risks in industries such as industrial holding, diversified finance, and construction also need to be vigilant [66].

城投行业 2026 年信用风险展望：城投企业加速出清， 债务化解与产业转型双轨并行 公用二部|付国晶、史瑞瑞、周春云|010-67413300 摘要 公司债券发行上市审核重点关注事项，对地方政府融资平台在经营过程中暴露的 资产流动性弱、利润对政府补助依赖程度高、互保、通过贸易业务做大营业收入 规模等问题做出约束，倒逼地方政府融资平台整改以适应融资要求。2025 年 5 月，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人共 同对"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"进行介绍，金融政策组合拳的出台落 实了降准及降息方案，释放了稳增长、稳房地产、稳市场等积极信号，此举有利 于进一步稳定房地产及各地土地市场，为各地政府及城投企业盘活存量土地、消 化存量房地产项目及商品房提供前提条件。 | 表 1 2025 | 年以来化债及城投行业相关重要事件 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 发布 | 重要会议/文件名称 | 重要内容 | | 时间 | | | | 2025.01 | 2024 年中国人民银行工作会议 | 2025 年继续做好金融支持地方政府融资平台债务风险化解工作。 | | | 《关 ...

地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 城投年报 2025 年 1 月 1 日—1 2 月 3 1 日 地方政府与城投行业研究 "退平台"倒计时下的城投风险再审视 ——2025 年城投行业运行回顾与 2026 年展望 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王肖梦 xmwang01@ccxi.com.cn 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【2025 年上半年城投行业运行回顾与下阶 段展望】净融资连续 4 个月为负，警惕退 平台加速风险显性化，2025-06 从财务视角看化债与转型背景下的城投企 业——基于对 2390 家城投企业 2024 年年 报的分析，2025-05 【城投债市场运行 2025 年一季度回顾与展 望】净融创近三年新低，政策收紧倒逼城 投"真转型"，2025-04 2025 年哪些区域将率先退出重点省份名单？ ——基于"99 号文"的相关估算，2025- 02 【城投债市场运行 2024 年回顾与 2025 年 展望】重点省份净融出、退名单 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate, and the coupon strategy may remain a relatively prudent choice. With low credit spreads and the need to control duration risk, investment strategies can focus on the refined exploration of variety spreads, increasing the allocation of low - credit - risk and high - absolute - return varieties [1][2] - Secondary perpetual bonds still have investment value, but their volatility may increase. It is recommended that trading desks control their positions according to their liability - side conditions and try reverse operations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds: Explore Variety Spreads, Pay Attention to Volatility Risks of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Low Credit Spreads, Focus on Variety Spread Exploration - In January, the long - end interest rate showed a trend of "rapid rise → rapid fall → slow fall", credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - and low - rated bonds outperformed high - rated ones, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [10][11] - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate. For accounts with unstable liability sides, it is not recommended to chase long - term credit. Focusing on medium - and short - term varieties may be relatively advantageous. After the spread compression in January, credit spreads are generally at a low level [14][15] - Investment strategies can focus on three aspects: exploring the spreads of perpetual varieties, seizing the allocation opportunities of brokerage bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, and grasping the "oversold" repair opportunities of science and technology innovation bond component bonds [18] 3.1.2 Secondary Perpetual Bonds Still Have Allocation Value, but Volatility May Increase - In January 2026, bank secondary perpetual bonds had a catch - up rally, with yields declining across the board and credit spreads narrowing, generally outperforming ordinary credit bonds. This rally was mainly driven by funds, while insurance's net buying volume gradually decreased [32][33] - 3 - 5 - year large - bank secondary perpetual bonds still have certain allocation value for accounts with stable liability sides. However, with the rapid entry of trading - desk funds such as funds and the reduction of insurance's buying volume, the volatility of secondary perpetual bonds may increase [39] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Medium - and Long - Term Transaction Activity Rose - In January, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance proportion of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate decreased across the board [42] - The yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term and low - grade varieties performing better. The trading sentiment of urban investment bonds improved, and the medium - and long - term transaction activity increased [48][54] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Short - End Issuance Proportion Increased, Medium - and Long - Term Secondary Performance was Superior - In January, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The short - term issuance proportion of industrial bonds continued to rise, and the issuance interest rate generally declined [57] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties showing obvious repair. Most industries' public offering bond yields declined, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [59][62] 3.4 Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds: Transaction Sentiment Warmed Up, Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Significantly Repaired - In January 2026, there were no new bank secondary perpetual bond issuances, and the net financing was - 415 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.1 billion yuan [65] - The yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties significantly repaired. The trading sentiment of bank secondary perpetual bonds warmed up, and the transaction of city commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds spread to medium - and low - grade bonds [71][74]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 债市延续修复，中长普信债表现偏强 ——信用周报 20260131 本周信用债收益率、信用利差走势分化。本周权益高位震荡，年初配置行情 延续叠加央行创新货币政策工具催化，收益率延续修复。全周来看，信用债表 现强于利率债。3y 及以上中长端普信债、2-4y 券商次级债收益率有所下行， 利差有所收窄，其中 3-4y 普信债、5y 城投、4y 券商次级债表现相对占优；其 余品种收益率多数上行，除 1y 品种外利差以走阔为主。近期仍处于摊余债基 开放高峰，3-5y 品种普信债利差进一步压缩。 热点重点政策及热点事件 1、央行副行长表示将增加离岸人民币国债供给规模。这一举措有利于满足境 外投资者对优质人民币资产配置的需要，活跃市场交易、提升人民币定价能力。 2、吉林省成功退出地方债务重点省份。吉林省债务体量相对较小，率先退出 重点省份基本符合市场预期，可重点关注退重点省份后区域发展机会及发债主 体新增融资空间。 3、万科公布与深铁 23.6 亿借款方案。借款方案背靠深铁将为债券部分兑付提 供资金保障，万科债务风险的缓释有助于阶段性稳定市场预期。 4、多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the "package debt - resolution plan", Zhejiang provincial urban investment enterprises are seeking market - oriented transformation to break through the policy restrictions on new financing and enhance their self - hematopoietic ability. The report analyzes the new bond issuance and transformation of district - county - level urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang, finding that they have achieved some results in asset and income transformation, but the transformation effect in profit indicators is not obvious. Future transformation can be carried out in the directions of urban renewal, rural revitalization, industrial investment, and enhancing market - oriented attributes [4][46]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Introduction - Urban investment enterprises have accumulated a large amount of debt, and with relevant policies, new financing has been tightened. In 2024, the notice on standardizing the exit of financing platform companies was issued, prompting urban investment enterprises to seek transformation. Zhejiang is at the forefront of urban investment enterprise transformation, and this report explores the transformation directions of district - county - level urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang [4]. 3.2 New Bond Issuance in Zhejiang Province 3.2.1 Sample Screening - From January 2024 to the end of October 2025, 71 sample bonds were obtained, with a total issuance scale of 44.104 billion yuan, involving 42 sample enterprises [5]. 3.2.2 Regional and Administrative - Level Distribution - New bond - issuing enterprises are mainly distributed in 10 prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, with Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Jiaxing having the most issuing subjects. District - county - level subjects are the most numerous, with those in Hangzhou being the most prominent. There are 14 municipal - level subjects, mainly in Shaoxing and Wenzhou, and the least are park - level subjects, all in Ningbo [6]. 3.2.3 Distribution of Existing and New Entities - Most new bond - issuing enterprises are existing entities, and the number of first - time issuers in each city does not exceed 2. Among the sample enterprises, 31 are existing entities and 11 are first - time issuers, with the latter mainly in Hangzhou, Huzhou, etc. District - county - level first - time issuers are more numerous, while park - level first - time issuers are fewer [7]. 3.3 Transformation Directions of District - County - Level Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province 3.3.1 Characteristics of New Bond - Issuing District - County - Level Entities - There are 25 district - county - level sample enterprises, divided into three categories: those with strong urban investment attributes and initial exploration of market - oriented business (8 enterprises, 32%); those with strong industrial attributes and high marketization (9 enterprises, 36%); and those with high business diversification around urban operations (8 enterprises, 32%) [12]. 3.3.2 Performance of Transformation Indicators - **Indicator Selection**: Lower proportion of urban - construction assets, higher proportion of equity - fund investment and self - operated project investment indicate greater efforts in expanding market - oriented business; lower proportion of urban - investment income indicates a higher degree of marketization; lower proportion of government subsidies in net profit indicates less dependence on government subsidies, and higher proportion of investment income in net profit indicates greater contribution of equity - fund investment to profit [17]. - **Overall Performance of Transformation Indicators**: In terms of assets, the proportion of external investment and self - operated projects has increased, but the proportion of urban - construction assets has not decreased; in terms of income, the business segments have become more diverse, and the proportion of urban - construction income has decreased; in terms of profit, government subsidies still contribute significantly, and the contribution of investment income has increased, but the transformation effect in profit indicators is not obvious [19]. 3.3.3 Case Analysis - **Hangzhou Gongshu District State - owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd.**: Externally, it has good industrial resources and government support. Internally, the acquisition of Rundach Medical has changed its income structure, and equity and fund investment have enhanced its industrial attributes. In terms of transformation effects, the proportion of equity and fund investment and self - operated project investment has increased, the proportion of urban - construction income has decreased, the contribution of investment income to profit has increased significantly, and it has made achievements in industrial introduction [23][32]. - **Yiwu State - owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd.**: Externally, the government's equity integration has laid the foundation for its market - oriented attributes. Internally, through business operations and project implementation, its industrial attributes have been continuously enhanced. In terms of transformation effects, its asset scale has expanded, the proportion of urban - construction income has decreased, the contribution of investment income to profit has increased, and it has promoted the development of the small - commodity trade industry [33][39]. - **Longyou County State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd.**: Externally, government support has promoted its transformation. Internally, through asset transfer, business expansion, and industrial chain extension, it has improved its market - oriented business. In terms of transformation effects, its asset scale has increased, the proportion of urban - construction assets has decreased, the proportion of market - oriented business income has increased, and the contribution of investment income to profit has increased significantly [40][45]. 3.4 Summary - New bond - issuing enterprises in Zhejiang are mainly existing district - county - level entities. The transformation of district - county - level urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has achieved some results in assets and income, but the transformation in profit indicators is not obvious. Future transformation directions include becoming project implementation and operation subjects, participating in rural revitalization, participating in regional investment promotion and industrial development, and enhancing market - oriented attributes [46].

Group 1: Current Situation of Asset Transfers - The number of asset transfer cases involving urban investment companies has significantly increased, with 292 cases expected in 2024, marking a recent peak[5] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces account for approximately 40% of all asset transfer cases, with 213 and 174 cases respectively[8] - In 2024, the number of asset transfers by county-level urban investment companies surpassed that of city-level companies for the first time[6] Group 2: Impact of Asset Transfers - Asset transfers can lead to increased uncertainty in debt repayment capabilities, contributing to credit risk for urban investment companies[4] - Approximately 9.5% of asset transfer cases triggered bondholder meetings, with about 4% involving significant asset restructuring[11] - About 85% of asset transfers involved equity transfers, with a significant portion being non-compensated transfers of real estate and land[16] Group 3: Reasons Behind Asset Transfers - The asset transfers reflect efforts by urban investment companies to achieve market-oriented transformation and high-quality development amid national debt reduction policies[19] - Local governments are actively promoting the revitalization of state-owned assets to mitigate debt risks, often through the establishment of industrial groups[21] - Urban investment companies are focusing on core businesses and improving profitability by shedding non-core and underperforming assets[24] Group 4: Investor Perspectives - Investor recognition tends to decrease when urban investment companies transfer significant subsidiaries involved in cash-generating activities[30] - Conversely, transferring high-debt subsidiaries or loss-making entities can enhance investor confidence[28] - The analysis of 27 major asset transfer cases shows that over 70% of the companies experienced changes in their functional positioning and credit risk indicators[38]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China indicates that Dengfeng Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant debt default, raising concerns about its guarantee responsibilities and financial stability [2][4]. Group 1: Debt Default and Financial Situation - Dengfeng Construction Investment Group has defaulted on a loan guarantee for its subsidiary, with an overdue amount of approximately 37.12 million yuan [4]. - The company has total assets of 21.867 billion yuan and net assets of 14.85 billion yuan, but faces liquidity issues with only 3.665 million yuan in cash against short-term debts of 3.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company is actively communicating with relevant parties to arrange for subsequent payment despite the small amount involved, indicating a potential domino effect of debt risks across its subsidiaries [5]. Group 2: Broader Implications and Market Reputation - The default has led to Dengfeng Construction Investment being listed as a dishonest executor, which could severely damage its market reputation and ability to secure future financing [8][11]. - Other city investment companies have also been listed as dishonest executors, highlighting a trend that could lead to a vicious cycle of defaults and financing difficulties within the industry [10][11]. - The company has a guarantee balance of 1.575 billion yuan for its subsidiaries, which poses additional risks as it has not set up counter-guarantees [6][7].