Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation and oil price shocks will continue to disrupt global risk appetite. A - share market is difficult to completely shake off external emotional suppression in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle - East situation, international oil price trends, and the further transmission of external market fluctuations to A - share sentiment [8][15] - The inter - bank liquidity in the bond market is still relatively abundant. The central bank's open - market operations continue to send signals of care. Treasury bond futures are generally strong, with the long - end performing better, and the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern [11][15] - The core logic of the commodity market is the parallel evolution of geopolitical risk premium and domestic fundamental repair. Precious metals are strong due to the Middle - East situation and macro - expectation repricing, while industrial metals such as tin benefit from the marginal recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The commodity market may still have a structural market in the short term [9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - A - share market indices were under pressure, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95 points, down 2.70%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.33 points, down 2.59%. The total A - share trading volume was about 2.01 trillion yuan, up 4.1% from the previous trading day [7] - The market showed a pattern of more falling stocks than rising stocks, with 1008 rising stocks and 4372 falling stocks. The growth technology direction adjusted significantly, while sectors such as home appliances, banks, and food and beverages were relatively resistant to decline [6][7] Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of strong long - end and stable short - end. The 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2606 rose 0.15%, closing at 111.69 yuan, with a trading volume of 852.75 billion yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures T2606 rose 0.04%, closing at 108.40 yuan, with a trading volume of 881.23 billion yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures were flat compared with the previous day [11] - The central bank carried out 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. Except for the 7 - day Shibor, other term Shibor rates declined, indicating that the liquidity was further relaxed [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, but non - ferrous metals performed strongly. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3074.6 points, down 0.91%. Leading gainers included Shanghai silver, soybean No.1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, and double - gum paper, while leading losers included PVC, LPG, coking coal, container shipping index (European line), and lithium carbonate [9] Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Hot - Product Review - Artificial intelligence: Global industrialization is accelerating, and new applications are emerging. Key points to follow include changes in capital expenditure of leading enterprises, transformation of application scenarios, and product technology upgrades [14] - Commercial space: With the establishment of commercial space companies and strong support for development, key points to follow include domestic recoverable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [14] - Nuclear fusion: Industrialization is accelerating, and artificial intelligence drives the increase in power demand. Key points to follow include project progress and industry bidding [14] - Big consumption: Policy promotes consumption upgrading. Key points to follow include economic recovery and further stimulus policies [14] - Securities firms: A - share trading volume is running at a high level. Key points to follow include A - share trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [14] - Precious metals: Central banks continue to increase holdings, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Key points to follow include further interest - rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [14] - Energy and chemicals: The Middle - East geopolitical situation affects supply. Key points to follow include the progress of the conflict and changes in crude oil prices [14] - Shanghai silver strengthened significantly. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East and the game of macro - expectations, precious metals recovered. Shanghai tin strengthened oscillatingly, supported by the recovery of manufacturing prosperity [14] Recent Core Idea Summary - In the equity market, focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation, oil prices, and external market fluctuations on A - share sentiment [15] - In the bond market, the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the long - end of treasury bonds performing better [15] - In the commodity market, it may show a structural market in the short term. Pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation, oil price trends, and the sustainability of domestic demand recovery [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for precious metals in the short term, with potential for recovery in the medium to long term [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The precious metals sector is currently under pressure due to tightening liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve, but concerns over "stagflation" may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal in the medium term [1][3][9]. - The energy and chemical sector is experiencing heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation in this area [1][4][19]. - The black metal sector, represented by iron ore, is less sensitive to geopolitical issues and is more influenced by domestic macro policies, indicating a potential for a fluctuating market [1][16]. - Industrial metals are facing downward pressure from tightening liquidity and stagflation expectations, although aluminum prices may remain relatively strong due to supply disruptions [1][14]. - Agricultural products are expected to see increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with certain commodities like soybean oil potentially offering better value compared to industrial metals [1][21]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The South China precious metals index has decreased by 13.73% over the past two weeks, with gold and silver prices also declining significantly [3][8]. - Historical data from the 1970s oil crises shows that while gold and silver may initially drop in value, they tend to rebound over longer periods [9][12]. Energy and Chemicals - The South China energy and chemical index has increased by 1.52% recently, but geopolitical factors remain a significant risk for oil prices [4][19]. - Brent crude oil prices have shown fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [19]. Black Metals - The South China black metal index has risen by 0.63%, with iron ore prices showing stability amidst mixed domestic demand signals [16]. Industrial Metals - The South China non-ferrous metal index has decreased by 2.05%, with copper and aluminum prices under pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions [14][19]. Agricultural Products - The South China agricultural index has seen a decline of 3.03%, with soybean oil prices expected to remain strong due to their role as a substitute for fossil fuels [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran continues to impact the global market, leading to increased inflation expectations and affecting the price trends of various assets. The market is concerned about the potential for stagflation and recession, with different sectors showing varying degrees of response [4][8][11]. - The economic data in China from January to February showed improvement, but the sustainability of the economic recovery remains to be seen, and domestic demand still requires support from stable household income and policies [8]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some industries are affected by supply shortages, while others are influenced by weak demand or geopolitical factors [14][16][32]. 3. Summary by Catalog Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The US is reported to be discussing sending troops into Iran to extract about 450 kg of highly enriched uranium; Zhongke Aerospace's Lijian - 2 Yaoyi launch vehicle had a successful maiden flight; Kweichow Moutai adjusted the sales contract price and retail price of Feitian 53%vol 500ml liquor; Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue and net profit in 2025 increased significantly year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy View**: The conflict between the US and Iran has disturbed global risk appetite, increasing inflation expectations and causing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations to fade. Traders' expectations of an interest - rate hike have exceeded 50%. In China, the narrowing of PPI and strong profitability of industrial enterprises at the beginning of the year are noted. Attention should be paid to the change in the war situation and risk control [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of change. The US President said that Iran had agreed to "most of the content" of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on anti - unfair competition [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2695 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 80 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day, the net investment was 2615 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in the first two months improved, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to concerns about imported inflation, and the inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold rose slightly and COMEX silver fell. Powell made dovish remarks, and Iran's stance on the negotiation and the new regulations on the Strait of Hormuz increased the risk of global energy supply [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical conflicts remain the focus of the market. Powell's dovish remarks have temporarily eased the pressure on precious metals, but long - term inflation expectations still need to be watched. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of Shanghai gold at 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: The copper price rose first and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased. The spot premium in different regions changed, and the import was profitable [13]. - **Strategy View**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suppressed the copper price, but the tight supply of copper ore and the reduction of scrap copper substitution support the price. The copper price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [14]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Concerns about supply contraction in the Middle East pushed up the aluminum price. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed, and the LME inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic downstream demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Zinc - **Market News**: The zinc price rose slightly. The inventory and basis of zinc in different markets changed, and the import was at a loss [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may not be sustainable. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may decline further after wide - range consolidation [18]. Lead - **Market News**: The lead price fell slightly. The inventory and basis of lead in different markets changed, and the import was profitable [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term support at the spot end is obtained, but the high Shanghai - London ratio and the pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose slightly. The spot premium and cost of nickel changed slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price rose. The production and demand of tin changed, and the inventory decreased significantly [21]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weak, with the reference operating range of domestic main contracts at 320000 - 400000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 41000 - 50000 US dollars/ton [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The futures price and spot premium changed [23]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply shortage of lithium salt has eased, but the trend of inventory reduction needs to be observed. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to be strong. The reference operating range of the 2605 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 162000 - 180000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The basis, overseas price, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to rise in the short term, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of the main contract AO2605 at 2850 - 3050 yuan/ton [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless - steel price fell slightly. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of stainless steel is stable, and the terminal consumption exceeds expectations. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract at 14150 - 14600 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory changed [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has recovered, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions changed [31]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, and the inventory has been gradually reduced, but there is no trend - driving force. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron - ore price rose slightly. The positions and basis changed [33]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment has decreased, and the demand for iron ore is expected to increase. The port inventory has decreased. The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: The coking - coal price fell slightly, and the coke price rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [35]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or stay on the sidelines, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and oil - price changes [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: The glass price fell slightly. The spot price and inventory changed [38][39]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern. The supply contraction and cost support may form a certain bottom, but the terminal demand needs to be observed [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: The soda - ash price fell. The spot price and inventory changed [40]. - **Strategy View**: The soda - ash market is in a game between short - term supply contraction and weak demand, and the price is in a narrow - range consolidation [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [41]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: The industrial - silicon price fell. The positions and basis changed [45]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: The polysilicon price rose. The positions and basis changed [47]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom in a volatile manner [48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market News**: The price of butadiene is strong, and the market of natural rubber has different views on the rise and fall [50][51]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profits on butadiene rubber call options, and hold the hedging position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The price of crude oil and related refined products rose [55]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - WTI cross - regional spread [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit decreased [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [58]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell urea. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the large geopolitical influence on the market [62]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply, and demand changed [63]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term fundamental supply shock is not fully reflected. The price is expected to rise before the Iranian issue is resolved, but attention should be paid to risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene - glycol price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [65][67]. - **Strategy View**: The industry load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [68]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell. The load, inventory, and processing fee changed [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The p - xylene price fell. The load, inventory, and valuation changed [70]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [71][72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market News**: The PE price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market News**: The PP price fell. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [75]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost end to the production mismatch [76]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The slaughter volume was average [78]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - side improvement is limited. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and pay attention to profit - taking [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply was normal, and the market sales slowed down [80]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is sufficient, but the small - egg supply is tight. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - end contracts and short - sell on rebounds in the near - end contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Trump plans to visit China, and the US soybean export and domestic soybean arrival and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy View**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Indonesia plans to increase the palm - oil blending ratio in biodiesel, and the production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in different regions changed [85]. - **Strategy View**: The price of oils and fats is expected to rise in the medium term due to the influence of the US - Iran event [86]. Sugar - **Market News**: The production, export, and import data of sugar in different regions changed. The proportion of sugarcane used for ethanol production in Brazil increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the unstable international oil price [88]. Cotton - **Market News**: Trump plans to visit China, and the import, export, and production data of cotton changed [89]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but attention should be paid to the risk of the US - Iran event [90].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is worried about the escalation of the tense situation between the US and Iran, leading to a continued decline in global risk appetite. In the short term, the domestic stock index oscillates weakly with increased volatility, and the domestic stock index market cools down again. - The overall economic and inflation situation in China from January to February is better than expected, but the overall goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than those in 2025. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks oscillate weakly in the short term; bonds oscillate in the short term; black commodities oscillate weakly; non - ferrous metals oscillate weakly; energy and chemical products oscillate strongly; precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Iran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, and other energy supply interruption news has hit risk sentiment. International oil prices have risen unilaterally, and the US dollar index and US bond yields have increased. - Domestic: The Chinese economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report sets the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stocks oscillate weakly and with increased volatility in the short term; bonds oscillate in the short term; black commodities oscillate weakly; non - ferrous metals oscillate weakly; energy and chemical products oscillate strongly; precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market rebounded. - The economic and inflation situation from January to February is better than expected, but the overall goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. - The market trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index oscillates weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1009.44 yuan/gram, up 1.73%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17763 yuan/kg, up 3.12%. - Spot gold rose significantly in the US session, breaking through the $4550 mark, and finally closed up 2.58% at $4492.99/ounce; spot silver closed up 2.55% at $69.78/ounce. - Precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to oscillate on Friday, and the trading volume was low. The escalation of the Middle - East situation over the weekend may further increase steel costs. The real demand has improved marginally, and the inventory decline has continued to expand. The apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased slightly this week, but the hot - metal output has increased slightly. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore dropped significantly on Friday, and the futures price oscillated at a high level, mainly affected by rumors of iron - ore negotiation setbacks. The demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the supply and demand misalignment problem is gradually being alleviated. The room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of phased adjustment after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, and the futures trends were divergent, with silicon manganese showing a stronger trend. The rebound in oil prices supports the alloy prices. The silicon - manganese market has stable supply, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon - iron market is waiting for the entry situation in April. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an oscillating - strong mindset [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories at low prices, resulting in a significant decrease in social copper inventories. The supply of the copper market remains loose, and the downstream terminal demand is affected by the overdraft effect of last year. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, and the probability of extreme shortage is not high [9]. - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE Global Aluminum Company may affect electrolytic - aluminum production in the short term, providing some support for the aluminum price. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly due to high domestic supply [9]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc - ingot inventory continued to decline last week but is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc - ore processing fees in the south have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The overseas smelting output will increase in 2026. The demand is not optimistic [10][11]. - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead in the first two months increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy is unstable. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar have increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is mixed, with the semiconductor industry performing well but other industries underperforming. The tin price has rebounded due to the return of risk appetite and inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to the emotional fluctuations caused by the repeated Middle - East situation [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory of smelters remains low. There is still no progress in the negotiation of the Zimbabwean export ban, and the lithium carbonate price has a large upward potential. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is at a high level and stable. The supply and demand are weak, and the production capacity is in surplus. The price is close to the cost, and it is expected to oscillate strongly due to the increase in coking - coal prices [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have continued to decline, and the inventory has increased slightly. The medium - and long - term policy is negative for the market, and the price is close to the full - cost range. Attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [16]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US preparation for landing operations has kept the market's expectation of the Strait's safety low. The attack on the Russian terminal has restricted oil exports, and the oil price has exceeded $100. The oil price will remain strong in the short term [17]. - **Asphalt**: The oil - price support continues, the refinery production schedule in April is expected to decline significantly, and the seasonal demand will increase. The total inventory will be depleted, and the short - term price will follow the oil price and fluctuate significantly [17]. - **PX**: The price of naphtha is strong, and the PX price has rebounded. The PX will remain strong in the short term due to the decrease in upstream reforming operations and the increase in overseas demand for aromatic materials [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased following the decline of the reforming device, but the increase is limited by the negative feedback from the downstream. The core logic lies in the aromatic raw materials, and the PTA is likely to be strong [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease significantly, and the price has remained strong. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the terminal [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The increase in the oil price has driven the polyester sector to strengthen. The finished - product inventory is low, and the production and sales have declined. The short - fiber will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. - **Methanol**: The import reduction due to the geopolitical conflict has led to a reduction in port inventory and an increase in inland demand. The methanol market has support, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback [19]. - **PP**: The upstream supply has decreased, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market is tight, and the price is expected to remain strong. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream supply has continued to decrease, and the demand has been supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory has been depleted rapidly, and the polyethylene is expected to continue to operate strongly. Geopolitical factors are the key variables [19]. - **Urea**: The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to put pressure on the market, but the industrial demand provides support. The price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the policy benefits are exhausted. The uncertainty of Sino - US soybean trade has increased. The increase in the CBOT soybean price is limited by profit - taking [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. The basis remains high. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate with the soybean meal [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The crude - oil price is the main driving factor for international oils and fats. The vegetable - oil price has the potential to rise, but it is restricted by recession expectations and the expected high - yield. The domestic soybean - oil inventory is being depleted, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may rebound. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will fluctuate with soybean oil and palm oil [22]. - **Corn**: The bargaining power of the trading end has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [23]. - **Hogs**: The weight of hogs in stock is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - term contracts and support in the far - term contracts [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with improvements in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises started to replenish inventory, showing signs of recovery in the Chinese enterprise sector. However, due to the turbulent world political situation in March, the rhythm of industrial enterprise profits remains to be observed [22][23]. - The short - term cost support for steel prices is difficult to decline significantly, and terminal demand is neutral. Steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the Middle East situation on steel exports needs to be noted [2][31]. - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to face greater pressure of oversupply in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. - The Middle East situation is still tense, which suppresses the prices of some assets such as copper and US stocks, while increasing the risk premium of oil prices [4][6][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any passage through this channel will face "severe measures" [11]. - The Senate hearing of Fed Chairman nominee Wash will be held as early as the week of April 13. The short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and silver is expected to be weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The market is worried about the escalation of the US military's ground operation, the risk appetite is low, and the US dollar index remains high [3][14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and the Houthi armed forces attacked important Israeli military targets. The short - term US stock market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][18][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year. The Middle East situation has deteriorated, and the stock index is still under pressure [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 146.2 billion yuan. It is recommended to pay close attention to the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market is running steadily and strongly. The overall supply - demand pattern of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream's ability to accept prices is limited. It is necessary to focus on changes in the demand side [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February. The short - term steel price is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [2][29][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to be in surplus in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports in February were 270,500 tons. The US cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease. The short - term external cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [38][42][43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US has finalized the biofuel blending quotas for 2026 - 2027. Palm oil prices are strongly supported, and soybean oil is expected to gradually get out of the undervalued range and be in a volatile and strengthening pattern next week [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export sales in the week ending March 19 were in line with expectations. Corn prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [48][49][50]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume decreased last week. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. It is recommended to view soybean meal from a volatile perspective for the time being [51][52]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,100 tons of copper in 2025, reaching a new high. The copper price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the domestic positive arbitrage layout [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - EnergyX started a lithium production facility in Texas. The lithium ore supply is tight, and the demand for power is not pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [57][58][59]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East situation has led to a shortage of sulfuric acid in the Chilean mining industry. The lead price is expected to continue to grind at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][63]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price rebounded last week. The overseas zinc ore supply is tightened, and the domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and take profit on long positions at high prices [65][66]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium were in a low - level volatile pattern last week. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and take profit on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy at high prices [67][68][69]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and overseas tin inventories decreased last week. The supply of tin ore is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of major producing areas and the realization of demand growth [71][72][73]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Middle East conflict has entered the fourth week, and the oil price risk premium remains high. The short - term oil price is affected by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation [74][75]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price was in a volatile and weak pattern last week. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern next week, and it is necessary to be cautious before the geopolitical situation is clear [76]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [77][78]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene futures rose due to the tense Middle East situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to reduce inventory in April and May and continue to run strongly [79][80]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in the first two months of 2026. The spot container freight rate has loosened, and the far - month contract is supported by oil prices and is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a volatile thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [81][82].

- The report introduces a timing model based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index. The model identifies market conditions by observing the difference between these two averages. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6633 and the 120-day moving average at 6485, with a difference of 2.28%, indicating a typical consolidation phase[3][7][12] - The mid-term industry allocation model highlights sectors with strong performance trends. It suggests focusing on industries related to computing power (e.g., semiconductor equipment ETF 159516.SZ, communication ETF 515880.SH), cyclical sectors (e.g., oil and gas ETF, energy chemical ETF 159981.SH), and the new energy sector. If a volume contraction signal appears, attention should shift to non-ferrous metals and military industries[3][6][8] - The report evaluates the market's valuation levels using PE and PB metrics. The Wind All A Index PE is positioned near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level[8][12] - The timing model suggests maintaining a 50% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index, considering the current market environment and valuation levels[6][8][12]

Group 1 - The core principle is that industries with a higher proportion of oil-related costs in their value chain are more quickly and severely affected by fluctuations in oil prices [2] - The aviation industry is a prime example, with fuel costs accounting for 20% to 40% of total costs, leading to significant price increases in international routes following the Middle East conflict [2][5] - Domestic airlines are expected to raise fuel surcharges starting in April, although the impact on domestic routes is slightly delayed due to sufficient fuel reserves [2] Group 2 - Oil price fluctuations have a direct impact on transportation costs, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 2205 yuan and 2120 yuan per ton, respectively, as of March 23 [5] - China's energy self-sufficiency rate is around 80%, which is relatively high compared to Japan and South Korea, indicating a lower energy risk [5][6] - As of early 2026, China's oil reserves are estimated at 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels, sufficient to meet 110 to 180 days of consumption, contributing to market stability despite price increases [7][9] Group 3 - The international fuel surcharge for airlines is raised before domestic routes due to the need for refueling in countries with less stable reserves [8] - The rise of electric vehicles is expected to reduce oil dependency, with projections indicating that by the end of 2025, there will be 43.97 million electric vehicles in China [8][11] - China's energy and chemical industry is the largest and most comprehensive globally, providing a strong foundation for energy security [11][13] Group 4 - The potential for global inflation due to sustained conflicts in the Middle East could impact food prices, particularly for cooking oils, which are heavily influenced by oil prices [18][20] - China imports about 80% of its soybeans, with rising oil prices potentially increasing soybean production costs by over 15% [25][26] - China's soybean production has remained high, with self-sufficiency gradually improving, indicating resilience against international price fluctuations [27][29]