商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314451 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

在全球能源结构加速向绿色低碳转型的背景下，传统能源企业如何突破技术迭代、资金投入与产业协同 的多重瓶颈？金融资本又如何精准滴灌新兴产业，破解"耐心资本"短缺难题？ 对此，中油资本和昆仑资本以"产业需求"为核心，正持续加码构建产投融一体化协同的生态。 活动期间，中油资本、昆仑资本董事长汤林表示，中油资本和昆仑资本立足油气化工产业提质增效、节 能降碳、绿色转型的需要，通过资本聚链的方式，在中国石油与被投企业之间、被投企业相互之间、实 体经济与金融企业之间，架起融合发展的云梯，适时发布供需对接清单，定期组织产投融沟通活动，密 切彼此业务合作，提升产业链供应链韧性，着力构筑良性互动、相互成就的"中油生态竹林"。 在产业资源链接方面，中油资本和昆仑资本通过高效整合科研、产业、资本、金融资源，一体推进创新 链、产业链、资金链深度融合，推动资金、技术、市场、专家资源跨单位流动，构建全生命周期赋能体 系，助力先进科技成果孵化、转化、产业化。 昆仑资本投资管理部相关负责人告诉《证券日报》记者，公司通过"基金+直投"双轮驱动的模式，重点 投资布局了新能源、新材料、绿色环保、高端智能制造等新兴产业和未来能源、合成生物学等未来产 业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the strategic directives from the central government regarding the development of the central region, ecological protection of the Yellow River basin, and high-quality development in Henan province, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and improving people's livelihoods [1][5]. Group 1: Empowering Industrial Transformation and Upgrading - China Cinda's Henan branch focuses on technology innovation in fields such as new materials and advanced manufacturing, supporting specialized enterprises through market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps [2]. - The company has helped listed firms like Huaying Agriculture and Zhongfu Industry reduce debt burdens and has actively participated in the rescue of Kedi Food, ensuring employment for over 15,000 individuals [2]. - A business matching event with the Henan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is planned for April 2025 to enhance the financial services for state-owned enterprises [2]. Group 2: Assisting in Risk Mitigation in Key Areas - Since its establishment, China Cinda's Henan branch has invested over 50 billion yuan in acquiring non-performing loans from local banks, aiding in the resolution of risks associated with projects like the Wandaxin Expressway [3]. - The company has contributed to the restructuring of local small banks, acquiring non-performing loans worth 6.167 billion yuan [3]. - The branch has played a crucial role in the "guarantee housing" initiative, facilitating the delivery of 3,319 housing units in the Zhengzhou Tilu project [3]. Group 3: Promoting New Industrial Development - The company supports the transformation of traditional energy enterprises in Henan, providing over 20 billion yuan in funding to major energy groups since 2015 [4]. - It has utilized debt-to-equity swaps to assist the largest lithium hexafluorophosphate producer in expanding production and reducing debt ratios [4]. - The Henan branch is also involved in enhancing the cultural tourism industry, aiding in the bankruptcy restructuring of Luoyang Tourism Group to improve asset operation efficiency [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Strategic Directives - China Cinda's Henan branch is committed to deeply learning and implementing the important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping, focusing on the strategic deployment for the central region's rise and ecological protection [5][6]. - The company aims to serve the real economy and promote the development of industries such as cultural tourism, manufacturing, and high-tech sectors in Henan [6].

2025年07月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：中国央行 6 月增持 7 万盎司黄金，连续 8 个月增持，速度有所恢复；特朗普向各国发送征税函，日 韩等 14 国 25%到 40%不等、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流出，COMEX 黄 金库存 1144 吨，减少 8 吨；上期所黄金库存 21 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银库 存 1330 吨，减少 9 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1323 吨，减少 34 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15529 吨，减少 28 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 5 月白银进口约 450 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14868 吨，增加 22 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，建议黄金做多；白银反弹，近期市场销售走好，价格维持升水，使得银价维 持偏强走势，不过长期看白银工业用银扭转向下，依旧建议考虑长线布局空单或者择机做多金银比。 风险提示：贸易战反复 基本金属 | ...

文字早评 2025/07/10 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.36%/-0.74%/-0.97%/-1.79%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.39%/-1.29%/-2.19%/-4.26%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.50%/-1.59%/-2.76%/-5.68%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.37%/-0.59%/-0.58%/-0.54%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金有望流入 高收益资产，经济也有望在众多政策的助力下企稳。建议逢低做多与经济高度相关的 IH 或者 IF 股指期 货，亦可择机做多与"新质生产力"相关性较高的 IC 或者 IM 期货。 期指交易策略：单边建议逢低买入 IF 股指多单，套利暂无推荐。 国债 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约上涨 0.19%，收于 121.09；T 主力合约上涨 0.05%，收于 109.050；TF 主 力合约上涨 0.03% ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：pengyy@qh168.com.cn 2025年7月10日 研究所晨会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of enhancing the resilience and security of supply chains in the energy and chemical industry due to global economic changes and rising uncertainties [1] - Experts suggest that digital transformation is a key path for reshaping the supply chain ecosystem in the energy and chemical sector [1] - The current global industrial system is experiencing diversification, regional cooperation, green transformation, and accelerated digitalization [1] Group 2 - The development of artificial intelligence, computing power, and new energy is introducing unpredictable factors into global supply chains [2] - Companies are encouraged to enhance their supply chain optimization capabilities through digital systems that enable perception, transmission, decision-making, and execution [2] - Various companies shared their experiences in digitalizing procurement processes during the conference, highlighting the importance of customer-centric approaches and digital transformation [2]

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 09 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称 8 月 1 日加征关税不会延期，且威 胁对铜加税 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-09 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普放话称 8 月 1 日关税最后期限不会延期 特朗普表态关税期限不会延期，这使得市场风险偏好受到一定 影响，市场预期有所变化， 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 特朗普称将实施 50%铜关税、药品和半导体关税在望 行业关税压力加大，与日本、欧盟谈判不确定性仍存，美股盘 中窄幅震荡。 综 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 合 印度尼西亚：受关税威胁影响 对美国棕榈油出口预计下滑 晨 消息面扰动频发，棕榈油大幅增产上行 报 黑色金属（铁矿石） Ferrexpo 二季度铁矿石生产承压运行 尽管工业品情况较高，但黑色现实基本面压力下难以推动大幅 反弹。进入淡季之后，终端钢坯和长材累库速度有所加快。短 期矿价维持震荡，关注焦煤估值修复力度。 有色金属（多晶硅） 今日市场多晶硅预期价格大幅上调 政策端博弈性强，操作风险高，建议观望。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Ana ...