需求总量背后的"三驾马车" 你有没有想过，49.8亿平方米的住房需求到底意味着什么？这可不是一个冷冰冰的数字，而是未来五年中国城镇居民"住有所居、住得更好"的真实写照。根 据中指研究院最新发布的《"十五五"中国住房需求空间测算（2026-2030）》报告，这一预测正是由三大核心力量共同驱动： 新增人口：城镇化仍在"输血" 尽管全国总人口已进入负增长通道，但城镇化进程并未停歇。"十五五"期间，预计新增城镇人口约3650万人。这些新市民需要安家落户，直接催生约16.1亿 平方米的住房需求。别小看这个数字——它相当于再造近10个深圳的住宅建面！ 改善升级：从"有房住"到"住得好" 如今，住房需求的主角已经变了。不再是年轻人第一次买房的"刚需"，而是家庭换大房、换好房的"改善性需求"。报告显示，这类需求将贡献20.3亿平方 米，占总需求的四成以上。这意味着，建面120平方米以上的大户型正成为市场新宠。 拆改更新：老房子也有"新生机" 这个数字比过去高峰期有所回落，但恰恰说明市场正在回归理性。它既不是崩盘式下滑，也不是狂飙式增长，而是一种更健康、更可持续的"中枢水平"。 值得一提的是，2025年新房销售规模已经降至这一 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Real Estate market is experiencing a significant uptick in activity, with a notable increase in sales of large residential units, indicating a sustained release of housing improvement demand [1][2] Group 1: Project Performance - The Shen Tie Qianhai Times Zunfu project achieved over 90% sales within the first hour of its launch, generating approximately 1.9 billion yuan in sales [1] - The project offered 76 units, with sizes of approximately 245 square meters and 285 square meters, both designed as four-bedroom layouts [1] - In December 2023, the project initially launched 270 high-quality residential units, selling out in just six hours, followed by an additional 344 units in March 2024, marking it as the highest sales rate project in Shenzhen for early 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The overall new housing market in Shenzhen has seen a significant increase in activity, with over 26,000 new and second-hand residential transactions in the first quarter of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.7% [2] - The demand for large residential units exceeding 200 square meters has surged, further indicating the ongoing release of housing improvement needs [2] - Experts predict that the Shenzhen real estate market will continue to stabilize and potentially rebound by 2025, driven by favorable government policies such as interest rate cuts, increased loan limits, and enhanced housing consumption incentives [2] Group 3: Future Developments - Shen Tie Real Estate plans to launch over 4,300 housing units this year, including talent housing, commercial properties, and apartments [2] - The company aims to focus on integrated development around urban hubs, adhering to a "six good + six transformation" standard system to create high-quality housing that meets market demands [2]

Group 1: Beijing New Housing Transaction Structure - In Q1 2025, the transaction of new housing in Beijing shows that 2,100 units of products under 90 square meters were sold, accounting for 22.5% of total transactions, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - For products between 90-200 square meters, 6,774 units were sold, making up 72.4% of total transactions, an increase of 7.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Products over 200 square meters saw 477 units sold, representing 5.1% of total transactions, down 3.0 percentage points from 2024 [1] - In terms of total price structure, products priced below 5 million accounted for 39.1% of transactions, remaining stable compared to 2024 [1] - The share of products priced between 5-10 million decreased to 38.0%, while those above 10 million increased to 22.9%, up 6.7 percentage points from 2024 [1] Group 2: Chengdu New Housing Transaction Structure - In Q1 2025, the transaction of new housing in Chengdu indicates that products under 90 square meters accounted for 6.5% of total transactions, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024 [5] - Products between 90-200 square meters saw approximately 24,000 units sold, making up 86.7% of total transactions, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The share of products over 200 square meters decreased to 6.8% [5] - For total price structure, products priced below 2.5 million accounted for 58.8%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [5] - Products priced between 2.5-5 million accounted for 31.1%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points, while those above 5 million accounted for 10.1%, up 2.7 percentage points from 2024 [5] Group 3: Foshan New Housing Transaction Structure - In Q1 2025, Foshan's new housing transactions show that 1,371 units of products under 90 square meters were sold, accounting for 18.7% of total transactions, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from 2024 [7] - Products between 90-200 square meters accounted for 75.9% of total transactions with 5,570 units sold, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The share of products over 200 square meters increased to 5.4% [7] - In terms of total price structure, products priced below 2 million accounted for 70.8%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points compared to 2024 [7] - Products priced between 2-3 million accounted for 16.8%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points, while those above 3 million accounted for 12.4%, showing a slight decline [7]