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消费者服务行业双周报(2025/6/13-2025/6/26):暑期旺季临近,京东正式入局酒旅-20250627
Dongguan Securities· 2025-06-27 08:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [31]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming summer peak season is expected to make the 2025 summer tourism market the most vibrant yet, with an estimated 150 million passenger trips in civil aviation during the summer transport period (July-August), representing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [21][31]. - The report highlights the entry of JD.com into the hotel and travel industry, which may trigger competition in the OTA sector and stimulate travel demand [19][31]. - Various local tourism development policies are expected to be enhanced before the summer season, which could improve expectations and valuations for tourism attractions and related sectors [31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From June 13 to June 26, 2025, the CITIC consumer services industry index experienced a slight decline of 0.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.59 percentage points [8]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with tourism, hotels, and education sectors declining, while the comprehensive services sector saw a rebound [9]. - A total of 22 listed companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five performers being Junting Hotel, Tianmu Lake, Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Chuangye Heima, showing increases of 9.08%, 5.42%, 5.41%, 4.90%, and 4.73% respectively [13]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the CITIC consumer services industry is approximately 30.70 times, slightly down from previous periods and below the average valuation of 49.69 times since 2016 [16]. Industry News - The report notes significant developments, including the expected increase in civil aviation passenger transport during the summer, with a forecast of 1.5 billion trips and over 240 million daily passengers [21]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to focus on promoting the development of the sports and cultural tourism industry [23]. - The release of the top 60 hotel groups in China shows stability in rankings, with notable upward trends for Atour Group and eLong Hotel Technology [24]. Company Announcements - Key announcements from listed companies include Nanjing Business Travel's adjustment of asset acquisition plans and Jinjiang Hotel's approval for H-share issuance [25][26]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as exhibitions, human resources, and education, which may benefit from policy expectations due to economic fluctuations in the second half of the year [31]. - Recommended stocks include Jinjiang Hotel, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Tianmu Lake, Jiuhua Tourism, and Songcheng Performance, among others [32].