1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 40.75 to close at 1007.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 3.89%. The September soybean meal contract rose 22 to close at 2976 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.74%. The South China soybean meal spot price closed at 2820 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The September rapeseed meal contract rose 36 to close at 2633 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2510 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.8% [4]. - The U.S. soybean market was volatile and declined last week. On one hand, the hydrothermal conditions in the production areas were suitable, and the crop growth was good. On the other hand, the U.S. unilaterally issued a tax - levy letter, reigniting trade concerns. In addition, the export sales pace of new U.S. soybean crops was slow. The July USDA report lowered the export demand for new crops, and the inventory increased slightly to 310 million bushels, which was slightly bearish. In China, the spot supply was sufficient, and the price was generally stable. The sentiment in the commodity market improved, and there was an expectation of tight supply in the distant future, so the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up [4]. - The progress of the U.S. tariff and trade policy is slow, and the difficulty of reaching an agreement has increased. Market concerns may weaken the U.S. agricultural product export market. The July USDA report is generally slightly bearish, with the export demand for new crops lowered and the ending inventory slightly increased to 310 million bushels. The weather in the production areas will be good in the next two weeks, which is conducive to crop growth. The U.S. soybean may fluctuate widely. In China, there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in the near term, the soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the spot price is stable. Under the expectation of China's anti - involution policy, the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. The soybean procurement pace in the fourth quarter is slow. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1007.50 | 1048.25 | - 40.75 | - 3.89% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 465.00 | 2.00 | 0.43% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 452.00 | 448.00 | 4.00 | 0.89% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 32.57 | - 98.05 | 65.48 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2976.00 | 2954.00 | 22.00 | 0.74% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2633.00 | 2597.00 | 36.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 343.00 | 357.00 | - 14.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2830.00 | 2820.00 | 10.00 | 0.35% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2820.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 156.00 | - 134.00 | - 22.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybean market fell last week due to suitable hydrothermal conditions in the production areas, reignited trade concerns, slow export sales of new crops, and a slightly bearish USDA report. In China, the soybean meal market was stable in the short term with sufficient supply, and the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up due to improved market sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the future [4][7]. - The July USDA report shows that for the 2024/2025 season, the U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 15 million bushels to 1.865 billion bushels, the residual balance was slightly lowered, and the ending inventory remained unchanged at 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 season, the planting area was 83.4 million acres, 0.1 million acres less than the June report. The yield per acre remained at 52.5 bushels. The crushing demand was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, the export demand was lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 310 million bushels, an increase of 15 million bushels compared with the June report. The adjustment in South America was limited and in line with expectations. The report is generally slightly bearish [8]. - As of the week of July 6, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, in line with market expectations. The emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. As of the week of July 8, about 9% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas will be higher than normal and the temperature will be lower than the average in the next 15 days [8][9]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 503,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.439 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.4%. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 248,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1.837 million tons [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel [10]. - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, compared with 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. According to the official shipping schedule of Brazilian ports, the expected export volume in July is 11.929 million tons, a significant increase compared with 9.579 million tons in the same period last year. The export volume in June was 13.931 million tons, and it is expected to remain at a high level in August but with a more moderate increase [10]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.364 million tons, 294,700 tons less than the previous week and 645,100 tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, 130,800 tons more than the previous week and 260,300 tons less than the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 6.127 million tons, 2.804 million tons more than the previous week and 79,000 tons less than the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.88 million tons, 208,000 tons less than the previous week and 824,200 tons more than the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 131,620 tons, including 95,820 tons of spot trading and 35,800 tons of forward trading. The average daily pick - up volume was 183,540 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2954 million tons. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.92 days [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Brazil exported 1.91795097 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July, with an average daily export volume of 479,487.74 tons, 2% less than the average daily export volume in July last year [13]. - Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in Rosario. This will be Argentina's first soybean meal export to China [13]. - As of the week of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%. The growth stages of rapeseed in Manitoba vary widely [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to remain at a high level in July and August. The estimated export volume in the first half of this year is 80.915 million tons, more than 75.709 million tons in the same period last year [14]. - The estimated total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso in the 2025/2026 season is 48.55 million tons, with an estimated output of 47.18 million tons and an initial inventory of 1.36 million tons. The total demand is estimated to be 47.61 million tons, and the ending inventory is 940,000 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous estimate. The estimated output is 7.29% less than that in the 2024/2025 season, mainly due to lower productivity. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.67% [14]. - Argentine farmers will prefer to plant corn over soybeans in the 2025/2026 season due to high soybean export tax rates, low prices, and low profit margins [15]. - As of June 30, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.84 million tons, compared with 3.49 million tons last year. The soybean imports were 14.52 million tons, compared with 13.2 million tons last year. The soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, compared with 15.28 million tons last year. The rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons, compared with 5.68 million tons last year [15]. - As of the week of July 2, Argentine farmers sold 2.1634 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 25.5779 million tons. They also sold 140,700 tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 405,100 tons [15]. - The estimated rapeseed output of the EU 27 + UK in the 2025/2026 season is 20.3 million tons, with an estimated range between 19.3 million tons and 21.3 million tons [16]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, RMB exchange rates, soybean crushing margins in different regions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data charts [17][18][21][24][26][28].