供应与需求平衡
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聚烯烃日报:新增产能放量,供应端偏宽松-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - New capacity such as the 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical Phase II Line 2 has been put into production, intensifying the abundant supply situation. The operating rate of PP inventory devices remained flat month - on - month, and the inventory in upstream and mid - stream decreased slightly. The number of PE maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall operating rate was still high, and production enterprises had inventory accumulation and de - stocking pressure. International oil prices showed a weak trend, oil - based production profits were acceptable, propane prices rose slightly, and PDH - based PP profits were near the break - even point. Downstream demand recovered slowly, agricultural films entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, overall order follow - up was slow, and terminal operating rates recovered slightly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report shows the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis, as well as the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operating rate was 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit was 384.7 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 175.3 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 64.2 yuan/ton (+ 38.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The report presents price differences such as HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [27] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 26.9 yuan/ton (+ 12.1), PP import profit was - 519.2 yuan/ton (+ 32.4), PP export profit was 31.9 US dollars/ton (- 4.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report shows inventory data of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][80][84]