交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳，随着丙烷价格强 势，PDH利润持续下滑。供需端，塑编整体转入淡季需求回落，管材需求尚可。当前PP交割品现 货价6250（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-4，升贴水比例-0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存53.8万吨（+0.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： PP主力合约20日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • PP概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳，随着丙烷价格强 势，PDH利润持续下滑。供需端，塑编整体转入淡季需求回落，管材需求尚可。当前PP交割品现 货价6250（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-6，升贴水比例-0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存53.7万吨（-2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： P ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The US cancelled some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation on China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year. OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply - demand imbalance to oversupply in November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it starts to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6860 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Basis - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. Main Position - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but starts to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Basis - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, and the demand for pipes is picking up, with a moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6860 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6835 (2), etc. [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6420 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6400 (-34), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), etc. [8] - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15733 (-29), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), etc. [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 1869.5, and it increased to 4319.5 in 2025E with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 2245.5, and it is expected to reach 4906 in 2025E with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the entry of agricultural film demand into the peak season (but still weaker than in previous years), and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the market is also influenced by geopolitical factors in the crude oil market, improved demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. - The main driving factors for both LLDPE and PP include cost support due to geopolitical unrest and the gradual entry into the demand peak season. However, the demand is still weaker compared to the same period in previous years [5][8]. - The main logical drivers are cost - demand factors and the promotion of domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline compared to July. The crude oil price is volatile, and recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has occurred. The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions of the LLDPE main contract are increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, exports increased year - on - year but declined compared to July, and the crude oil price was volatile with geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (-130), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 116, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000 tons), which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions of the PP main contract are decreasing, but still showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7232 (+63), the basis is - 52 (-63), the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736 (+211), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (-130), the price of the 01 contract is 6966 (+53), the basis is - 116 (-183), the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. For example, in 2018, the import dependence was 46.3%, and in 2024, it dropped to 32.9% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, and the import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17].

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated September 4, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policies as positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, and the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has slightly increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+23,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films has recovered but is still weaker than in previous years. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+43,000 tons), showing a bearish trend [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract has decreased but is still long, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - New capacity such as the 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical Phase II Line 2 has been put into production, intensifying the abundant supply situation. The operating rate of PP inventory devices remained flat month - on - month, and the inventory in upstream and mid - stream decreased slightly. The number of PE maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall operating rate was still high, and production enterprises had inventory accumulation and de - stocking pressure. International oil prices showed a weak trend, oil - based production profits were acceptable, propane prices rose slightly, and PDH - based PP profits were near the break - even point. Downstream demand recovered slowly, agricultural films entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, overall order follow - up was slow, and terminal operating rates recovered slightly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report shows the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis, as well as the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operating rate was 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit was 384.7 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 175.3 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 64.2 yuan/ton (+ 38.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The report presents price differences such as HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [27] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 26.9 yuan/ton (+ 12.1), PP import profit was - 519.2 yuan/ton (+ 32.4), PP export profit was 31.9 US dollars/ton (- 4.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report shows inventory data of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][80][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to trend sideways today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven price increases have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while downstream demand for PP is slightly improving, the overall demand for LLDPE's agricultural film is below expectations, with neutral industrial inventories [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it reverted to fundamentals. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. On the supply and demand side, the overall demand for agricultural film is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,250 (-30), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -101, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, and the demand for agricultural film was below expectations. With neutral industrial inventories, the PE market is expected to trend sideways today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were in contraction. Exports increased year-on-year. The "anti-involution" policy's impact faded. Short-term oil prices are falling. On the supply and demand side, downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 16, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral stance [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating. After the "anti-involution" policy-driven price increase subsided, crude oil prices fell, while downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. With neutral industrial inventories, the PP market is expected to trend sideways today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a positive factor, while weak demand and falling crude oil prices are negative factors. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7,250 (-30), the 01 contract price is 7,351 (+8), the basis is -101 (-38), the warehouse receipt quantity is 7,345 (unchanged), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 505,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7,100 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 7,084 (-1), the basis is 16 (+1), the warehouse receipt quantity is 12,860 (unchanged), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 588,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with expectations of a volatile market due to factors such as OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile considering factors like weak downstream demand and OPEC's production increase [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, packaging film downstream is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new production capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI, and OPEC is increasing production. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 120, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.7%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Off - season for agricultural films, weak downstream demand for packaging films, many enterprises reducing loads, overall downstream demand weak, new production capacity pressure remains. Current LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), overall fundamental is bearish [4]. Other Indicators - Basis: LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 48, premium ratio is 0.7%, bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 500,000 tons (-0.5), neutral [4]. - Disk: LLDPE main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - Main Position: LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The plastic main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, production pressure remains, industrial inventory is neutral. PE is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [6] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Downstream demand is in the off - season, demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Current PP delivery spot price is 7250 (-0), overall fundamental is bearish [7]. Other Indicators - Basis: PP 2509 contract basis is 172, premium ratio is 2.4%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 570,000 tons (-1.5), neutral [7]. - Disk: PP main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7]. - Main Position: PP main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak, industrial inventory is neutral. PP is expected to fluctuate today [7]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [9] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [9] Group 4: Market Data LLDPE - Spot prices: LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), LL import US dollar price is 840 (0), LL import conversion price is 7393 (-4), LL import price difference is - 63 (+54) [10]. - Futures prices: L01 is 7243 (-19), L05 is 7221 (-27), L09 is 7282 (-2) [10]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 500,000 tons, social inventory is 507,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 5831 (+200) [10]. PP - Spot prices: PP delivery spot price is 7250 (0), PP import US dollar price is 885 (0), PP import conversion price is 7781 (-4), PP import price difference is - 531 (+4) [10]. - Futures prices: PP01 is 7042 (+1), PP05 is 7032 (-9), PP09 is 7078 (+4) [10]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive factory inventory is 570,000 tons, social inventory is 252,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 7292 (-100) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. also changed. Capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]